RUNE / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
RUNE trades at $0.4219 with RSI 58.6, but its bearish moving-average structure keeps the verdict balanced
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-17 00:34 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Mixed
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Mixed
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Overweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Overweight — -7.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Overweight — -5.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — -3.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-20 — Underweight — +3.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Neutral — -2.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -3.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Overweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Neutral — +4.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -1.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Neutral — -0.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Neutral — +2.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Overweight — +5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: A decisive close above $0.4654, the 60-day high, overturns the bearish swing ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.421 voids this research. Confidence Low — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo is polishing a bounce and calling it a turn.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo is polishing a bounce and calling it a turn. Key support to defend sits near $0.421. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number, Mara: RUNE sits 7.1% below SMA200 and SMA50 trails SMA200 by 12.7%. But that damage is stale tape; the live impulse is different—price is 4.9% over SMA20, 6.4% over SMA50, RSI is 58.6, MACD histogram is +0.003173 and expanding, and seven-day performance is +5.1%.
Leo is polishing a bounce and calling it a turn. His favorite exhibit is still 7.1% below SMA200, while the 12.7% SMA50/SMA200 spread says the larger sellers own the map; +5.1% over seven days has carried RUNE only to $0.4219, still 9.3% beneath the $0.4654 sixty-day high.
· expanding MACD momentum
· RSI 58.6 leaves room for further upside
· Fear reading can fuel a squeeze
Invalidation: A decisive close above $0.4654, the 60-day high, overturns the bearish swing ruling.
Mara, if sellers truly owned the near-term tape, RUNE wouldn’t be above both SMA20 and SMA50 with an expanding positive MACD histogram. The 60-day low at $0.2939 is 43.6% below spot; the market has already rejected the abyss.
Leo, distance from the low is not demand—it’s arithmetic. Taker buy/sell at 0.98 and Fear&Greed at 27 show buyers aren’t pressing, and your 56.7% long-account figure gives the downside a crowded exit door.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, if sellers truly owned the near-term tape, RUNE wouldn’t be above both SMA20 and SMA50 with an expanding positive MACD histogram. The 60-day low at $0.2939 is 43.6% below spot; the market has already rejected the abyss.
Leo, distance from the low is not demand—it’s arithmetic. Taker buy/sell at 0.98 and Fear&Greed at 27 show buyers aren’t pressing, and your 56.7% long-account figure gives the downside a crowded exit door.
I’m with Mara on the positioning detail: the 1.31 long/short ratio is a long lean without taker-flow confirmation. No funding-rate data is supplied, so nobody gets to invent a bullish carry signal.
Leo, the macro headlines are liquidity theater, not RUNE liquidity. Until price reclaims $0.4654, the market is treating this as a countertrend rally, not a regime change.
I rule for the bears on the decisive exhibit: RUNE remains 7.1% below SMA200 while SMA50 is 12.7% beneath SMA200, and the bullish case lacks taker-flow confirmation. My ruling flips only if RUNE closes above the $0.4654 sixty-day high; otherwise a break below $0.4210—the latest candle low—confirms immediate weakness.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: RUNE is above SMA20 by 4.9% and SMA50 by 6.4%, with MACD histogram expanding at +0.003173. But price remains 7.1% below SMA200 and SMA50 sits 12.7% under SMA200; the chart is a short-term bounce inside a damaged longer trend. Direction: mixed; evidence families: RSI, moving averages, MACD, multi-horizon price performance; conflicts: short-term momentum versus bearish long-term MA structure; sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Fear&Greed at 27 says the crowd is still flinching, while long accounts at 56.7% and a 1.31 long/short ratio show traders leaning long anyway. Taker buy/sell at 0.98 offers no aggressive demand confirmation. Direction: mixed; evidence families: Fear&Greed, account positioning, taker flow; conflicts: fear reading versus net-long positioning, weak taker demand; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: The headlines point to institutional crypto infrastructure—T. Rowe Price's multi-token ETF, Citadel's $400 million Crypto.com investment, and Visa's Open USD initiative. None is a direct RUNE catalyst, so headline enthusiasm should not be smuggled into the token thesis.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: The data pack provides no RUNE-specific token-economics, adoption, revenue, or protocol-fundamental evidence. The listed news concerns broader crypto markets and named companies, not THORChain's operating metrics, so fundamentals cannot carry a months-long bull case.
2c7d1bad2ad4be4312dbf69b9accaa0c201a1aba0749555f0496695fe69d615570e6e12fe78524df5289beb80d3f4382c89c73b1c7a527091a8c313a2bcf59adCommitted 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25