RUNE / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
RUNE sits at $0.4199 with a bearish SMA50/SMA200 spread of -10.1%
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-25 00:37 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Overweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Overweight — -7.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Overweight — -5.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — -3.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-20 — Underweight — +3.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Neutral — -2.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -3.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Overweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Neutral — +4.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -1.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Neutral — -0.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Neutral — +2.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Overweight — +5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 4 exchanges
Invalidation: A decisive close above $0.4575 invalidates the bearish swing verdict.. Cautious read: a break below $0.2939 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your +6.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your +6. Key support to defend sits near $0.2939. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number: SMA50 sits 10.1% below SMA200, and the exploit headlines put a target on the protocol’s back. But RUNE is still 4.2% above SMA50, 0.6% above SMA20, and the 30-day return is +6.1%; that says the panic has already been partly priced in. At $0.4199, the coin is fighting near-term weakness, not collapsing into the $0.2939 60-day low.
Leo, your +6.1% is a rear-view mirror painted over with fresh damage. The decisive fact is that price remains 6.4% below SMA200 while the SMA50 is beneath it by 10.1%; your short-term averages are merely a ledge under a broken roof. Fear & Greed at 27, 56.1% longs, and a 0.91 taker buy/sell ratio show buyers are not capitulating — they’re offering exit liquidity.
· short squeeze above $0.4575
· security-recovery headlines
· rapid reversal from Fear & Greed 27
Invalidation: A decisive close above $0.4575 invalidates the bearish swing verdict.
Mara, you’re treating the SMA200 like a verdict carved in stone. RSI is 50.8, MACD downside is contracting, and RUNE is only 8.2% below the $0.4575 60-day high — the rebound has structure.
Leo, a 0.0002693 negative MACD histogram is still negative, and ‘contracting’ isn’t a crossover. A failed push toward $0.4575 with taker flow at 0.91 would turn your rebound into a bull trap.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating the SMA200 like a verdict carved in stone. RSI is 50.8, MACD downside is contracting, and RUNE is only 8.2% below the $0.4575 60-day high — the rebound has structure.
Leo, a 0.0002693 negative MACD histogram is still negative, and ‘contracting’ isn’t a crossover. A failed push toward $0.4575 with taker flow at 0.91 would turn your rebound into a bull trap.
Leo, I’m with Mara on the positioning: 56.1% long accounts and a 1.28 L/S ratio are not capitulation. Fear at 27 without short crowding means the market can still flush the hopeful longs.
Everyone is arguing over the bounce while the regime is thin. A protocol emerging from a five-week pause after a $10.7M hack needs sustained demand, not one month at +6.1%; below SMA200, liquidity usually punishes optimism.
I award the bears the ruling, and the single decisive exhibit is the bearish SMA50/SMA200 spread of -10.1% with price still 6.4% below SMA200. The long-leaning crowd, 0.91 taker buy/sell flow, and exploit overhang reinforce downside pressure. I overturn this ruling only if RUNE closes decisively above the $0.4575 60-day high, or if the bearish moving-average structure materially reverses.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
bearish — Evidence families: moving-average structure, momentum, support/resistance. RUNE is above SMA20 by 0.6% and SMA50 by 4.2%, but remains 6.4% below SMA200 while SMA50 trails SMA200 by 10.1%; RSI 50.8 and contracting MACD histogram do not repair that structure.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
bearish — Evidence families: fear gauge, account positioning, taker flow. Fear & Greed is 27, yet 56.1% of long accounts are already positioned long with a 1.28 L/S ratio, while taker buy/sell sits at 0.91. The crowd is fearful and still leaning long — an ugly setup for dip-buyers.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
bearish — THORChain-related reporting cites an exploit draining more than $10M, including an $11M+ estimate across at least nine chains, followed by a five-week operational pause. Operations resumed, but the security damage is the headline that matters for RUNE’s near-term credibility.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
bearish — The data pack provides no fresh token-economics improvement to offset the protocol’s reported $10.7M hack and prolonged halt. Resumption is operationally positive, but it does not erase the trust and security overhang.
f56553dcb3882d1932e9cd95e9def47237da05a2de602622a4f99424cf6be98fa037d0259b96601fe6cc56026a684ecae80849e922b70cc8a322141261edc9f8Committed 2026-07-26T00:20:00+00:00 · 52 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25