RUNE / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
RUNE sits at $0.419 with RSI 42.9 as bearish structure presses lower
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-16 01:36 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — -3.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — +3.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Neutral — -2.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -3.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Overweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Neutral — +4.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -1.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Neutral — -0.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Neutral — +2.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Overweight — +5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 4 exchanges
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained move above $0.458, the 60-day high.. Cautious read: a break below $0.3718 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that $0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that $0. Key support to defend sits near $0.3718. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I concede the bearish stack: RUNE is below every listed moving average, with the SMA50 2.0% under the SMA200. But the MACD histogram is contracting, RSI is 42.9 rather than oversold, and price is already only $0.419 after a 2.4% 30-day slide—some of the damage is stale and priced in.
Leo, that $0.419 anchor is precisely the problem: price remains 3.3% below SMA20 and 2.6% below SMA200, while the 60-day high at $0.458 is still 8.6% away. A contracting negative MACD histogram is not a reversal; it is bearish momentum losing speed before the structure has turned.
· Relief rally from RSI 42.9 and Fear & Greed 34
· Security-news resolution after the $10M compensation portal
· Breakdown toward the $0.3718 60-day low
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained move above $0.458, the 60-day high.
Mara, you’re treating $0.3718 as destiny when it’s still 12.6% below spot. RSI 42.9 leaves room for a relief bounce without requiring a miracle.
Leo, relief bounces are not trend repairs. The latest candle closed at $0.4188, below the $0.419 open, and every moving-average comparison still points down.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(5)
Mara, you’re treating $0.3718 as destiny when it’s still 12.6% below spot. RSI 42.9 leaves room for a relief bounce without requiring a miracle.
Leo, relief bounces are not trend repairs. The latest candle closed at $0.4188, below the $0.419 open, and every moving-average comparison still points down.
Mara, the crowd is hardly euphoric: Fear & Greed is 34, and longs are only 53.9%. That is not the kind of crowded optimism that guarantees another air pocket.
Theo, modest crowding does not create liquidity. The protocol-specific $10.8M vault-hit headline and $10M compensation portal are stronger catalysts than a weak fear reading.
Leo, the settled record backs the defensive reading: four directional wins and zero losses in the shown window, including four underweight wins. The tape has already told us which side keeps getting paid.
I rule for the bears: underweight wins, driven by the bearish moving-average stack and the protocol-specific security damage. The decisive exhibit is RUNE at $0.419, below SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200; this ruling is overturned by a sustained move above the 60-day high at $0.458 or a clear RSI recovery above 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: price below SMA20 (-3.3%), SMA50 (-0.6%), and SMA200 (-2.6%); SMA50 trails SMA200 by 2.0%; RSI 42.9; MACD histogram -0.00313. Conflicts: MACD is contracting and price is 12.6% above the 60-day low at $0.3718. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: Fear & Greed at 34, long accounts at 53.9% with an L/S ratio of 1.17, and taker buy/sell at 1.16. Conflicts: modest long and taker-buy skew could cushion declines; StockTwits volume is zero. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The headline risk is ugly and directly RUNE-linked: reports cite a $10.8M THORChain vault hit, an open $10M compensation portal, and stolen funds bridged through THORChain. Broader market headlines about UBS Bitcoin exposure and a Unitree IPO do not repair this protocol-specific credibility damage.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The compensation portal signals an attempt to contain exploit fallout, but the data pack gives no fresh usage, fee, revenue, or token-supply improvement. With security headlines still attached to THORChain, the fundamental case is defensive rather than catalytic.
d72b4381febf5bb04666a246f0d32e092620a579ae01322154b8fbfa56fe0ae0eaff5f24ed3adac83e409d856a55f50f8d212bab4f7befa37a3192bd7340acc9Committed 2026-08-17T00:20:00+00:00 · 89 rulings that day · Check the chain
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