RUNE / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
RUNE presses $0.49805 toward the $0.5069 ceiling as RSI hits 74.7
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-27 01:31 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bullish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Overweight — -3.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Underweight — +3.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Neutral — -2.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Neutral — -3.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Overweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — -0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Neutral — +4.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-25 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Neutral — -1.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Neutral — -0.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Neutral — +2.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Overweight — +5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 4 exchanges
Invalidation: The bullish ruling is invalidated by a break below $0.484, the latest candle low.. Cautious read: a break below $0.484 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your trend exhibit runs straight into the $0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bullish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: I’ll concede the sharpest bear number: RSI is 74. Resistance to clear sits near $0.5069. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the sharpest bear number: RSI is 74.7, Fear&Greed is 71, and taker buy/sell is just 0.84. But RUNE has still gained 12.3% over seven days and 12.7% over 30 days, with price 15.7% above SMA200 and MACD histogram expanding at +0.006781; that’s a live trend, not a candle balanced on a pin.
Leo, your trend exhibit runs straight into the $0.5069 60-day high, only 1.8% above spot, while your own flow data says sellers are hitting harder with taker buy/sell at 0.84. RSI 74.7 isn’t stale baggage when greed is 71 and 54.4% of accounts are long; the breakout you’re celebrating is precisely where crowded momentum gets audited.
I’m more bullish than the ruling: RUNE is only 1.8% below $0.5069 after a 12.3% seven-day advance, while the 60-day low is $0.3718. A clean acceptance above $0.5069 would show that the nearby resistance was underpriced rather than terminal.
I’m focused on the fastest failure: RSI 74.7, Fear&Greed 71, and taker buy/sell 0.84 make the breakout exhibit fragile. If $0.5069 rejects, the combination of 54.4% long accounts and a 1.19 L/S ratio could turn optimism into a sharp unwind; the recent record’s two WIN underweight calls versus zero LOSS also warns against complacent reversal calls.
I think Mara overreached by treating stretched momentum as a verdict rather than a condition. The deciding line is $0.5069: acceptance above it validates Leo’s trend case, while rejection followed by a break below $0.484 validates the bear attack.
· RSI 74.7 and Fear&Greed 71
· Taker buy/sell 0.84 with L/S ratio 1.19
· Security and reputational damage from the reported $10M+ theft
Invalidation: The bullish ruling is invalidated by a break below $0.484, the latest candle low.
Mara, the price is also 33.9% above the $0.3718 60-day low, and SMA50 sits 1.2% above SMA200. That structure says buyers control the map even before $0.5069 is cleared.
Leo, distance from the low is not proof of fresh demand. The only direct flow reading is taker buy/sell 0.84, and 54.4% long accounts means the next failed push can unwind quickly.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the price is also 33.9% above the $0.3718 60-day low, and SMA50 sits 1.2% above SMA200. That structure says buyers control the map even before $0.5069 is cleared.
Leo, distance from the low is not proof of fresh demand. The only direct flow reading is taker buy/sell 0.84, and 54.4% long accounts means the next failed push can unwind quickly.
I’m with Mara on the flow asymmetry: 0.84 is not a bullish execution signal, and the 1.19 L/S ratio confirms a modest long tilt. Still, no funding rate is provided, so nobody gets to invent a squeeze narrative.
I’m watching the macro tape, not the upgrade confetti. SEC custody-rule headlines and Nvidia’s earnings strength are broad risk signals, but neither establishes durable RUNE liquidity; the asset still must prove acceptance above $0.5069.
I’m ruling for the bull side: the decisive exhibit is the coordinated trend stack—RUNE is 15.7% above SMA200, SMA50 is 1.2% above SMA200, and MACD histogram is expanding at +0.006781. The ruling is overturned by a decisive move below $0.484, the latest candle’s low, especially if momentum also loses its current bullish structure.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
I’m bullish: price sits 12.2% above SMA20, 14.3% above SMA50, and 15.7% above SMA200, while MACD histogram expands at +0.006781. RSI 74.7 is stretched and the $0.5069 60-day high is only 1.8% away, but the moving-average structure remains bullish. Direction: bullish; evidence families: trend, moving averages, momentum, support/resistance; conflicts: overbought RSI and nearby 60-day high; sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
I’m bearish on the crowd setup: Fear&Greed is 71, long accounts are 54.4% with an L/S ratio of 1.19, and taker buy/sell is only 0.84. That is a greed-heavy, mildly crowded tape with sellers more aggressive at the market; StockTwits offers no usable sample at 0 messages. Direction: bearish; evidence families: Fear&Greed, account positioning, taker flow; conflicts: the crowd is not overwhelmingly long; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
I’m cautiously constructive on the product headline: THORChain 3.20 re-enables BNB, Solana, and Base support and adds native Monero and Zcash swaps alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins. But the report of more than $10 million stolen from a crypto platform tied to THORChain is the reputational headline the market can’t simply vaporize.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
I’m modestly bullish on utility because the 3.20 upgrade broadens supported assets and restores multiple chains, potentially improving network reach. I can’t quantify token-capture, revenue, supply, or valuation from this pack, so the fundamental case is functional rather than fully economic.
464b2fc5b861f4d4b0a8694afac1b2c7ca46adb1d84c0fb0664863bdb92584a564bb1ee510b85abc06eb9d0328d74bef4839ac43e76e5a63e96f0ad2d0a0301eCommitted 2026-08-28T00:20:00+00:00 · 93 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23