RUNE / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
RUNE’s 67.7 RSI is pressing resistance while the 50/200-day MA spread stays bearish
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-21 00:39 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Mixed
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Overweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Overweight — -7.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Overweight — -5.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — -3.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-20 — Underweight — +3.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Neutral — -2.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -3.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Overweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Neutral — +4.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -1.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Neutral — -0.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Neutral — +2.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Overweight — +5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: A sustained close above $0.4643 with RSI remaining below 70 would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.2939 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your “live tape” is sprinting toward a wall, not escaping the wreckage: RSI is already 67.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your “live tape” is sprinting toward a wall, not escaping the wreckage: RSI is already 67. Key support to defend sits near $0.2939. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number, colleagues: SMA50 is 11.8% below SMA200 and price is still 1.2% under that long-term average. But that’s old wreckage in the rear-view mirror; the live tape has RUNE 12.1% above SMA50, up 8.7% over 30 days, with MACD expanding at +0.004831. A move through $0.4643 would turn this battered chart into a squeeze machine.
Leo, your “live tape” is sprinting toward a wall, not escaping the wreckage: RSI is already 67.7 and the 60-day high is just $0.4643 away. More importantly, the price recovery has not repaired the structure—RUNE remains below SMA200 while the reported exploit has damaged the asset’s fundamental credibility. A 0.95% daily gain does not erase an $11M-plus security headline.
· Short squeeze from Fear&Greed 25
· Recovery rally after trading resumption
· Unexpected security or liquidity repair
Invalidation: A sustained close above $0.4643 with RSI remaining below 70 would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, you’re treating the exploit headline as a permanent short thesis, but trading resumed and RUNE is up 6.0% in seven days. At $0.4464, the market is already digesting the shock.
Leo, digestion is not recovery. The price is still 3.9% below $0.4643, and RSI 67.7 leaves little room for a clean repricing before sellers test the bounce.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating the exploit headline as a permanent short thesis, but trading resumed and RUNE is up 6.0% in seven days. At $0.4464, the market is already digesting the shock.
Leo, digestion is not recovery. The price is still 3.9% below $0.4643, and RSI 67.7 leaves little room for a clean repricing before sellers test the bounce.
I’ll interrupt both of you: Fear&Greed at 25 can support a contrarian bid, but 60.2% long accounts and a 1.51 L/S ratio show the trade is crowded. Taker buy/sell at 0.87 says the aggressive flow is selling, not confirming Leo’s squeeze.
And without a liquidity tailwind in this pack, I won’t underwrite a heroic breakout. The chart is above SMA20 and SMA50, yet still 1.2% below SMA200; that is a rally inside a damaged regime.
I, Judge Aldrich, award the ruling to the bears. The decisive exhibit is the combination of the reported THORChain exploit exceeding $11 million and RUNE’s still-bearish long-term MA structure, with price 1.2% below SMA200. I invalidate this ruling on a sustained break above the $0.4643 60-day high, especially if RSI holds below 70 rather than rolling over.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
The tape is tactically strong: RUNE is 7.9% above SMA20, 12.1% above SMA50, and MACD histogram is expanding at +0.004831. But the chart’s spine is weaker: SMA50 sits 11.8% below SMA200, while price remains 1.2% below SMA200 and only 3.9% beneath the 60-day high at $0.4643.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear&Greed is 25, an extreme-fear reading that can fuel a squeeze, and 60.2% of accounts are long with a 1.51 L/S ratio. That crowd is leaning the same way even as taker buy/sell sits at 0.87, so fear is not translating into aggressive buying; funding is unavailable.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The dominant RUNE-specific headline is the reported THORChain exploit, with losses cited above $11 million across at least nine chains and trading having been halted before resumption. Cardano’s hard fork and Exodus’s workforce reduction are broader crypto headlines, not a direct RUNE catalyst.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The exploit headlines strike at the network’s core value proposition: secure cross-chain infrastructure. No fresh protocol revenue, recovery, or token-economic offset is supplied in the data pack, leaving the security event as the fundamental exhibit.
c72e53aab87193d6b6f7fa69f15ad82a1a2be24cc20e8439d2a73f8a64978a318493ea2a32b8f699d8d9f64cbb801351e81386c424ce90ba6ee879a91604b285Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25