PUMP / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
PUMP’s 20.52% daily surge is pressing 0.003931 resistance with momentum still expanding
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-21 02:35 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bullish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bullish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-23 — Overweight — +1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-21 — Overweight — +12.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Overweight — +33.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-15 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Overweight — +12.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Overweight — +6.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Overweight — +26.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — +25.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Overweight — +14.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Overweight — +14.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Overweight — +31.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Neutral — +27.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Overweight — +9.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Overweight — +4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Neutral — +17.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Neutral — +26.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +22.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Overweight — +1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Neutral — +7.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Neutral — +24.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Neutral — +10.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Neutral — +2.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Neutral — +3.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A close below 0.003734 overturns the bullish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.003734 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo is treating RSI 80.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bullish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: I’ll concede Mara’s sharpest exhibit: RSI is 80. Resistance to clear sits near $0.003931. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede Mara’s sharpest exhibit: RSI is 80.1 and PUMP is only 2.1% below the 60-day high at 0.003931. But that heat is riding a 20.52% 24-hour move, +35.5% in seven days, +101.7% in 30 days, and an expanding MACD histogram—the tape is a launched rocket, not a stalled pop. We did get burned by the 2026-08-07 underweight call, which lost 25.9% versus BTC; today’s broad confirmation across moving averages and flows makes that failure less applicable.
Leo is treating RSI 80.1 like a victory lap when it is the warning flare. His key number, the expanding +9.38e-05 MACD histogram, is being stretched beneath 0.003931 resistance after price climbed 101.7% in 30 days; momentum can expand right into exhaustion. The record also includes a 2026-08-07 underweight LOSS of +25.9% versus BTC, but that proves only that chasing a hot tape can punish the wrong side—not that this tape cannot reverse.
I see more upside than the ruling admits: a break through 0.003931 could extend a trend already running +35.5% over seven days and +101.7% over 30 days. The 1.11 taker buy/sell reading shows buyers still have the immediate tape.
The fastest failure is a rejection at 0.003931 followed by a break of 0.003734; RSI 80.1 is the fragile exhibit because it leaves little room for disappointment. The 58.1% long-account share and 1.38 L/S ratio could turn a routine pullback into a crowded unwind, and the $6.3M SOL Kraken transfer adds supply pressure.
The conservative desk overreaches if it treats RSI 80.1 as a timing signal rather than a condition. I also remember the 2026-08-07 underweight LOSS of +25.9% versus BTC; the deciding condition now is whether price holds 0.003734 while the expanding +9.38e-05 MACD histogram persists.
· RSI 80.1 exhaustion
· crowded longs at 58.1% and L/S 1.38
· $6.3M SOL transfer to Kraken
Invalidation: A close below 0.003734 overturns the bullish ruling.
Leo, you call 0.003931 a launchpad, but price is already 2.1% from that 60-day ceiling with RSI at 80.1. What exactly is left to re-rate before the crowd needs a new buyer?
Mara, the re-rating is visible in structure: price is 79.5% above SMA50, 103.9% above SMA200, and SMA50 leads SMA200 by 13.6%. A ceiling two percent away is a test, not proof of failure.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Leo, you call 0.003931 a launchpad, but price is already 2.1% from that 60-day ceiling with RSI at 80.1. What exactly is left to re-rate before the crowd needs a new buyer?
Mara, the re-rating is visible in structure: price is 79.5% above SMA50, 103.9% above SMA200, and SMA50 leads SMA200 by 13.6%. A ceiling two percent away is a test, not proof of failure.
Leo, the crowd isn’t empty-handed: 58.1% of long accounts and a 1.38 L/S ratio already lean the same way, while taker buy/sell is only 1.11. That is bullish flow, but hardly a clean asymmetry.
Mara, you’re ignoring the regime: Bitcoin has pushed past $75,000, so liquidity is currently rewarding breakouts. Still, the $6.3M SOL transfer to Kraken and the 143,524 SOL sale are a nasty supply valve if the macro bid fades.
I rule for the bullish side. The decisive exhibit is the aligned trend stack—PUMP is 40.7% above SMA20, 79.5% above SMA50, 103.9% above SMA200, with MACD at +9.38e-05 and expanding. This differs from the 2026-08-07 losing underweight call because the current pack shows simultaneous bullish momentum, positive taker flow at 1.11, and a 13.6% SMA50/SMA200 bullish spread; the ruling is invalidated by a close below 0.003734, the latest candle low.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
RSI(14) is 80.1, while price sits 40.7% above SMA20 and 103.9% above SMA200. MACD histogram is expanding at +9.38e-05, and the +13.6% SMA50/SMA200 spread confirms a bullish moving-average structure.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bullish. Evidence families: Fear&Greed 72, long accounts 58.1% with a 1.38 L/S ratio, taker buy/sell 1.11, and StockTwits at 9 bullish versus 0 bearish. Conflict: RSI 80.1 and Greed 72 show crowd heat; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The headline flow is constructive: PUMP is described as a market gainer with a golden-cross setup, while Bitcoin has pushed past $75,000. The counterweight is concrete: a Pump.fun-linked wallet moved $6.3M in SOL to Kraken, and Pump.fun reportedly sold 143,524 SOL for $12.52M.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The token’s fundamental tape is dominated by ecosystem-linked wallet activity rather than fresh operating metrics. The $6.3M SOL transfer to Kraken and 143,524 SOL sale create supply-overhang risk, while no funding-rate or additional token-economics data is provided.
1cb1afbd83fcb8e986bebe37015d6ee2252da3ff02ad6c48ae81f80ce5c396e95c21c070ba128f2a35607134962360a82f87d1bc3398b693184c1393829130b0Committed 2026-08-22T00:20:00+00:00 · 92 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-23 · 2026-08-22