PUMP / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
PUMP’s 42.0% monthly surge meets a bearish moving-average structure
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-24 02:15 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Mixed
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-28 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-27 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Overweight — -7.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Overweight — +1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Overweight — +12.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Overweight — +33.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-15 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Overweight — +12.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Overweight — +6.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Overweight — +26.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — +25.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Overweight — +14.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Overweight — +14.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Overweight — +31.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Neutral — +27.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Overweight — +9.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Overweight — +4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Neutral — +17.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Neutral — +26.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +22.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Overweight — +1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Neutral — +7.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Neutral — +24.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Neutral — +10.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Neutral — +2.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Neutral — +3.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained break above 0.002097 accompanied by renewed MACD expansion would invalidate the bearish swing verdict.. Cautious read: a break below $0.001813 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your 42.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your 42. Key support to defend sits near $0.001813. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number, Mara: PUMP sits 3.8% below its SMA200, and the SMA50 is still 18.8% under that long-term average. But that’s stale rear-view data when price is 18.5% above SMA50, up 11.6% in seven days and 42.0% in thirty; the market is rebuilding the road beneath it.
Leo, your 42.0% is exactly the number that makes this dangerous, not safe. Price is still 12.9% below the 60-day high at 0.002097, MACD is contracting, taker flow is bearish at 0.92, and longs already outnumber shorts 54.7% to 45.3%; your momentum case is leaning on a crowd that has stopped buying.
· short-term momentum continuation
· Fear&Greed 28 triggering a contrarian bounce
· platform-revenue and app-expansion headlines
Invalidation: A sustained break above 0.002097 accompanied by renewed MACD expansion would invalidate the bearish swing verdict.
Mara, Fear&Greed at 28 means the crowd isn’t euphoric—it’s staring at the exit. If PUMP holds 0.001813, the intraday low, that fear can become fuel toward 0.002097.
Leo, fear doesn’t pay bids when takers sell at 0.92. Break 0.001813 and your “fuel” is just trapped longs discovering that 0.001149 is the next major floor.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, Fear&Greed at 28 means the crowd isn’t euphoric—it’s staring at the exit. If PUMP holds 0.001813, the intraday low, that fear can become fuel toward 0.002097.
Leo, fear doesn’t pay bids when takers sell at 0.92. Break 0.001813 and your “fuel” is just trapped longs discovering that 0.001149 is the next major floor.
Mara, I’ll give you the flow point: L/S at 1.21 and 54.7% long is not clean positioning. Still, that skew is modest, and with no funding data supplied, nobody gets to invent a leverage washout or claim the shorts are dominant.
Theo, the missing funding print doesn’t make the macro kinder. With the Clarity Act window slipping and memecoin headlines getting contaminated by hacks, liquidity can vanish before a chart level gets its second chance.
I side with Mara’s bears because the decisive exhibit is the bearish long-term MA structure: PUMP remains 3.8% below SMA200 while SMA50 sits 18.8% beneath it. I would overturn this ruling on a sustained break above 0.002097 with MACD expansion, or more immediately if 0.001813 fails and RSI(14) drops below 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: mixed. Evidence families: RSI(14) 58.4; price 9.5% above SMA20 and 18.5% above SMA50; price 3.8% below SMA200; MACD histogram positive at 0.00002629 but contracting; 7d +11.6% and 30d +42.0%. Conflicts: strong short- and medium-term momentum versus SMA50 below SMA200 by 18.8% and price below SMA200. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: Fear&Greed 28; long accounts 54.7% with L/S ratio 1.21; taker buy/sell 0.92. Conflicts: fear can provide contrarian fuel, but sellers still lead taker flow and longs are not capitulating. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: The tape has genuine adoption headlines—Pump.fun reportedly overtook TRON and Hyperliquid in daily revenue, while app expansion adds a growth narrative. But the broader backdrop is less friendly: the Clarity Act may miss its legislative window, and a hacked Robinhood account shows how quickly this memecoin complex can turn into headline-driven froth.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: Pump.fun’s reported revenue leadership and app expansion support platform traction, but the data pack gives no token-supply, unlock, valuation, or cash-flow figures. The biggest unlock has reportedly been survived, yet without quantified token economics I can’t underwrite a durable fundamental rerating.
5b10b129dcee9d2b0f7c3b489e9f5ca0fda7db947f3e9a030d14d7273b870c4910578adc3044a1b3f44953f9935e8f2d2c9f6e4a71dade480795911bdd4387d0Committed 2026-07-25T00:20:00+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-23