PUMP / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
PUMP’s 31.4% monthly surge meets a bearish SMA50/SMA200 structure and a 0.96 taker ratio
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-29 00:53 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-09-01 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-31 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-30 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-29 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-28 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-27 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Overweight — -7.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Overweight — +1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Overweight — +12.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Overweight — +33.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-15 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Overweight — +12.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Overweight — +6.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Overweight — +26.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — +25.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Overweight — +14.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Overweight — +14.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Overweight — +31.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Neutral — +27.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Overweight — +9.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Overweight — +4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Neutral — +17.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Neutral — +26.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +22.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Overweight — +1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Neutral — +7.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Neutral — +24.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Neutral — +10.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Neutral — +2.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Neutral — +3.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above 0.002184, the 60-day high, invalidates the bearish swing verdict.. Cautious read: a break below $0.001962 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo’s 31.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo’s 31. Key support to defend sits near $0.001962. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number: SMA50 is 15.9% below SMA200. But PUMP is still 11.7% above SMA20, up 3.7% in seven days and 31.4% in thirty; that bearish moving-average lag is stale exhaust smoke, while price is pressing toward 0.002184.
Leo’s 31.4% is precisely the problem, not the proof—PUMP is now 9.4% below the 60-day high after a sharp run, with MACD histogram contracting. His SMA20 argument ignores the 15.9% SMA50/SMA200 bear structure and a taker ratio of 0.96.
· reclaim of 0.002184 resistance
· continued revenue and social momentum
· fear-driven short squeeze
Invalidation: A sustained move above 0.002184, the 60-day high, invalidates the bearish swing verdict.
Mara, a 59.9 RSI isn’t overbought, and the 60-day low at 0.001149 is 72.2% below spot. That’s room to run, not a broken chart.
Leo, room to fall isn’t support. The immediate tape is down 4.07% in 24 hours, and your buyers are already losing the micro-battle at 0.96.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, a 59.9 RSI isn’t overbought, and the 60-day low at 0.001149 is 72.2% below spot. That’s room to run, not a broken chart.
Leo, room to fall isn’t support. The immediate tape is down 4.07% in 24 hours, and your buyers are already losing the micro-battle at 0.96.
Leo, I’ll grant the crowd isn’t euphoric: Fear&Greed is 29. But 53.7% long accounts and a 1.16 L/S ratio create a modestly crowded side without funding data to prove a squeeze.
Mara’s supply point matters more than the dovish headline fantasy: an $86M unlock arrives into a market still below its 60-day high. Liquidity can punish a 31.4% monthly winner quickly.
I rule for the bears, and the decisive exhibit is the contracting MACD histogram alongside the 15.9% SMA50/SMA200 bearish structure. PUMP is vulnerable to distribution below 0.001962; a sustained break above 0.002184 would overturn my ruling.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Bearish. Kai Nakamura: PUMP trades 11.7% above SMA20 and 24.6% above SMA50, but SMA50 sits 15.9% below SMA200. RSI(14) is 59.9 while MACD histogram at +1.632e-05 is contracting; the rally is losing thrust beneath the 0.002184 60-day high.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Bearish. Sofia Reyes: Fear&Greed is 29, yet long accounts hold 53.7% and the long/short ratio is 1.16. Taker buy/sell at 0.96 shows sellers have the slight immediate edge, while funding is unavailable.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Mixed-to-bullish headline flow, but Ed Walsh: reports cite expanded token support, rising revenue, and social momentum, alongside an $86M PUMP unlock as three-year vesting begins. The unlock is the material supply-side counterweight to promotional headlines.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Mixed. Priya Anand: Pump.fun’s reported revenue growth and broader token support strengthen the adoption narrative. The $86M unlock introduces a concrete dilution and distribution overhang, and the data pack provides no valuation, supply, or cash-flow figures to offset it.
76793ab6984b28be927ef38407547af5946a94030cee7405dd94ba17b07e01d1e65b9d2c8c3aaa5bbfb44b1c0d548dd39e9b3ad714e19978cc23a37eb1110a92Committed 2026-07-30T00:20:00+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-23