WLD / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
WLD holds $0.3416 after an 11.7% seven-day surge, but the breakout case still faces overhead supply
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-15 01:27 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Mixed
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A+
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -5.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-21 — Overweight — +4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Overweight — -0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Overweight — -8.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Overweight — -4.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Overweight — +0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +17.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — +13.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — +13.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — +6.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +6.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — +4.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — -4.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -10.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-25 — Underweight — -11.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -18.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -17.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -14.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -12.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — -8.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Underweight — -6.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Neutral — -10.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A daily close below $0.293 or RSI below 45 overturns the bullish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.293 voids this research. Confidence Low — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, the $0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bullish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: I concede the ugly number: WLD is still 5. Resistance to clear sits near $0.3447. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I concede the ugly number: WLD is still 5.4% below SMA200 and down 12.0% over 30 days. But that damage is stale tape, while the live structure has price 6.8% above SMA20, a bullish SMA50/SMA200 relationship, and an 11.7% seven-day rebound from the $0.293 low.
Leo, the $0.293 rebound is exactly the bait: WLD remains 52.8% beneath the 60-day high at $0.7229, and the momentum engine is already contracting with MACD histogram at +0.007326. His 11.7% sprint doesn't erase the 30-day loss or the fact that takers are selling at a 0.90 buy/sell ratio.
I think the upside has more room than the ruling admits: WLD is still 52.8% below $0.7229, while Fear&Greed at 34 leaves room for sentiment repair. The recent underweight calls lost on August 4, 5, 6, and 7 by 4.0%, 6.7%, 6.5%, and 13.9% versus BTC, showing how forceful the rebound regime can be.
The fastest failure is a break beneath $0.293, because the entire bullish case then rests on a fading +0.007326 MACD histogram. Long accounts at 62.5% and a 0.90 taker buy/sell ratio make that support the fragile exhibit.
Mara overreaches by treating the 30-day -12.0% return as decisive after the +11.7% seven-day reversal, but Leo overreaches if he treats moving-average structure as a confirmed breakout. The deciding condition is whether WLD holds $0.293 while reclaiming the $0.3447 session high.
· crowded long accounts at 62.5%
· taker buy/sell ratio 0.90
· contracting MACD histogram and price below SMA50/SMA200
Invalidation: A daily close below $0.293 or RSI below 45 overturns the bullish ruling.
Mara, four recent underweight calls lost—August 4 at -4.0%, August 5 at -6.7%, August 6 at -6.5%, and August 7 at -13.9% versus BTC. The current +11.7% seven-day move is the exhibit those calls lacked.
Leo, those losses don't make the next call right; they make late bullishness emotionally expensive. Long accounts already sit at 62.5%, and $0.3447 is barely above the $0.3416 price, so the rebound has not proven continuation.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, four recent underweight calls lost—August 4 at -4.0%, August 5 at -6.7%, August 6 at -6.5%, and August 7 at -13.9% versus BTC. The current +11.7% seven-day move is the exhibit those calls lacked.
Leo, those losses don't make the next call right; they make late bullishness emotionally expensive. Long accounts already sit at 62.5%, and $0.3447 is barely above the $0.3416 price, so the rebound has not proven continuation.
I see a crowded but fearful tape: Fear&Greed is 34, yet the 1.67 long/short ratio meets a 0.90 taker buy/sell ratio. That asymmetry supports Mara's fragility argument, but without funding data I can't call the crowd fully overstretched.
The macro headlines are garnish, not liquidity. WLD is still 6.2% below SMA50 and 5.4% below SMA200; until those levels recover, the market is treating the rally as a countertrend event.
I rule for the bullish side, but narrowly. The decisive exhibit is the combination of price 6.8% above SMA20, +11.7% over seven days, and a bullish SMA50/SMA200 structure—features absent from the recent August 4–7 underweight losses. This ruling is overturned by a daily close below $0.293 or RSI falling below 45.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
RSI at 50.5 is neutral, while price sits 6.8% above SMA20 but 6.2% below SMA50 and 5.4% below SMA200. Direction: mixed; evidence families: moving averages, RSI, MACD, multi-timeframe returns; conflicts: contracting MACD histogram and price below SMA50/SMA200 versus bullish SMA50/SMA200 structure and +11.7% over seven days; sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear&Greed is 34, yet long accounts are 62.5% with a 1.67 long/short ratio, while taker buy/sell is only 0.90. Direction: bearish; evidence families: fear gauge, account skew, taker flow; conflicts: broad fear can support contrarian upside, but long skew and net taker selling expose fragile optimism; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Headlines are split between Arthur Hayes backing Sam Altman’s crypto project and technical warnings of 10%–34% WLD downside setups. The White House crypto meeting and World Liberty’s conditional bank charter are sector-level catalysts, not direct WLD fundamentals.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The data pack provides no revenue, adoption, supply, unlock, or valuation metrics for Worldcoin. Fundamental direction: neutral; the current case is therefore driven by price structure and market psychology rather than verified token economics.
7ba56d7108df6633259981ff32537758662988bebbba89b3033c2391ebb4c1bcb9992f9aaddcb66d097da88829da3966f8938204256939eecd449461ccbccfffCommitted 2026-08-16T00:20:00+00:00 · 96 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23 · 2026-08-22