STX / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
STX’s 83.6 RSI meets a contracting MACD histogram and a 9.4% gap to the 60-day high
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-27 01:09 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
D
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — +8.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — +8.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Underweight — +77.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — +50.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — -4.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — -6.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — -6.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -8.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — -6.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — -8.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — -8.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — -1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — +3.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-25 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -13.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -17.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -14.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -17.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — -12.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — -16.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained break above 0.2893 with RSI below 80 would overturn the bearish call.. Cautious read: a break below $0.2587 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that 79.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that 79. Key support to defend sits near $0.2587. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number: RSI is 83.6, and the MACD histogram is contracting. But STX has still gained 79.6% in seven days and 90.0% in 30 days; that kind of tape can stay irrational longer than a short thesis stays solvent, while the 0.1175 low sits 123.0% below price. Our recent underweight call on 2026-08-16 lost by 50.1% versus BTC, so declaring exhaustion too early has already been expensive.
Leo, that 79.6% surge is exactly the exhibit under indictment, not a defense: price is 58.2% above SMA20 and only 9.4% below the 60-day high. Momentum is hot, but the contracting +0.01544 MACD histogram and bearish SMA50/SMA200 structure say the engine is losing thrust while optimism is already crowded.
I think the bearish ruling leaves upside underpriced: STX is up 79.6% over seven days and remains 25.1% above SMA200, so a clean move through 0.2893 could turn exhaustion into another momentum leg. The 2026-08-16 underweight call lost 50.1% versus BTC, a sharp reminder that this asset can punish early fades.
The fastest failure is a break of the 0.2587 session low, because the chart is stretched while MACD momentum contracts at +0.01544. Fear&Greed at 71 and 52.4% long accounts make the crowded optimism exhibit more fragile than the bullish narrative admits.
Leo overreaches by treating a 79.6% seven-day gain as self-validating; Mara overreaches if she calls collapse before support breaks. The deciding condition is whether STX reclaims 0.2893 or instead loses 0.2587.
· Momentum continuation above 0.2893
· Bitcoin-linked beta surge
· Broad risk-on liquidity
Invalidation: A sustained break above 0.2893 with RSI below 80 would overturn the bearish call.
Leo, your 0.1175 downside reference is theatrical; the actionable ceiling is 0.2893, just 9.4% above 0.2623. A market does not need to revisit the low to punish a parabolic chart.
Mara, the price is still above every listed moving average, including SMA200 by 25.1%. You’re treating a cooling histogram as a collapse while the tape remains decisively elevated.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Leo, your 0.1175 downside reference is theatrical; the actionable ceiling is 0.2893, just 9.4% above 0.2623. A market does not need to revisit the low to punish a parabolic chart.
Mara, the price is still above every listed moving average, including SMA200 by 25.1%. You’re treating a cooling histogram as a collapse while the tape remains decisively elevated.
Leo, the crowd isn’t euphoric enough to validate continuation: long accounts are 52.4%, L/S is 1.10, and taker buy/sell is 1.02. That is mild bullish skew, not the broad demand needed to absorb an RSI of 83.6.
Mara’s chart case has the cleaner macro expression: SEC custody-rule headlines can reshape risk appetite, but they do not provide a specific STX cash-flow catalyst. Nvidia’s strong guide may lift beta, yet it can also make stretched crypto exposure the first thing liquidity abandons.
I rule for the bear side: the decisive exhibit is RSI(14)=83.6 alongside a contracting MACD histogram at +0.01544, with price only 9.4% below 0.2893 resistance. This call is invalidated by a sustained break above 0.2893 with RSI holding below 80, showing the overbought condition is resolving through continuation rather than reversal.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
STX is stretched: RSI(14) is 83.6, with price 58.2% above SMA20 and 66.2% above SMA50. The trend has momentum, but MACD histogram is contracting at +0.01544 and SMA50 sits 24.7% below SMA200, leaving the structure vulnerable near 0.2893.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Crowd psychology leans greedy: Fear&Greed is 71, long accounts are 52.4%, and the L/S ratio is 1.10. Taker flow is only 1.02 and the lone StockTwits message is bullish, so enthusiasm is visible but not broad or forceful.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Headlines offer no fresh STX catalyst strong enough to justify the vertical move. Coverage focuses on Blockstack’s decentralized future and Stacks’ Bitcoin smart-contract role, while the SEC custody-rule revival and Nvidia’s earnings are broader market inputs.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Stacks has a clear Bitcoin-linked smart-contract narrative, and the cited coverage frames it as a leading Bitcoin smart-contract layer. The data pack provides no current adoption, revenue, token-supply, or valuation figures to offset the technical excess.
f76050ac2e42316571070ca893c9aed86416f6556b7d290e92b233baa4f2440964bb1ee510b85abc06eb9d0328d74bef4839ac43e76e5a63e96f0ad2d0a0301eCommitted 2026-08-28T00:20:00+00:00 · 93 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23