RUNE / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
RUNE’s 68.3 RSI meets a 0.8% ceiling below the 60-day high
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-22 01:28 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Mixed
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — -3.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — +3.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Neutral — -2.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Neutral — -3.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Overweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -4.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Neutral — +4.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — +4.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -3.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Neutral — -1.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Neutral — -0.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Neutral — +2.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Overweight — +5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 4 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained break above 0.4786 with MACD histogram still expanding would overturn the neutral ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.4687 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that 0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Neutral, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that 0. Key support to defend sits near $0.4687. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede Mara’s cleanest number: RUNE sits just 0.8% under the 60-day high at 0.4786, with Fear & Greed at 71. But that resistance is a thin windshield when seven-day momentum is already +13.1%, MACD is expanding at +0.004748, and price is above every major SMA by roughly 9.5% to 11.1%. The hack headline is stale fuel; the Solana integration and $2.82 billion Q1 volume are the engine still turning.
Leo, that 0.8% gap is exactly the problem, not a thin windshield. RSI at 68.3, greed at 71, and 56.2% long accounts show a crowded chase into resistance, while taker buy/sell at 0.99 says aggressive demand has already cooled. The -0.3% SMA50-versus-SMA200 spread also contradicts the idea of a clean trend regime.
I see more upside than the ruling admits: price is +13.1% over seven days, MACD histogram is expanding at +0.004748, and the 60-day high is only 0.8% away. If 0.4786 gives way, the current ceiling becomes evidence of compression rather than exhaustion.
The fastest failure is a rejection from 0.4786 after RSI 68.3 and Fear & Greed 71 have pulled crowds forward. The fragile exhibit is the long-account skew at 56.2% with taker buy/sell only 0.99; that combination can unwind quickly if the hack narrative regains control.
The aggressive case overreaches on momentum’s durability; the conservative case overreaches by treating 56.2% long accounts as proof of an imminent reversal. The deciding condition is simple: whether RUNE holds above or decisively clears 0.4786 without MACD contraction.
· vault/MPC security overhang
· rejection at 0.4786 resistance
· crowded long skew with taker buy/sell at 0.99
Invalidation: A sustained break above 0.4786 with MACD histogram still expanding would overturn the neutral ruling.
Leo, your +13.1% seven-day figure ends at 0.47485, only 0.00375 below the 60-day high. What’s left to discover if the breakout cannot clear 0.4786?
Mara, price is still above SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, and the MACD histogram is expanding. A market pressing the ceiling with that structure isn’t automatically exhausted.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Leo, your +13.1% seven-day figure ends at 0.47485, only 0.00375 below the 60-day high. What’s left to discover if the breakout cannot clear 0.4786?
Mara, price is still above SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, and the MACD histogram is expanding. A market pressing the ceiling with that structure isn’t automatically exhausted.
Leo, I’ll give you the structure, but the tape isn’t confirming with enthusiasm: taker buy/sell is 0.99, while the long-account share is 56.2%. That’s optimism with a dry powder problem, not clean accumulation.
Mara’s case has macro bite only if liquidity turns hostile, but the pack gives no direct liquidity gauge. I won’t invent one; the hard evidence is the 0.4786 ceiling against a 0.3718 floor.
I rule for the neutral side: the decisive exhibit is RUNE’s proximity to 0.4786 resistance while RSI is 68.3 and taker buy/sell is 0.99. The bullish momentum is real, but the evidence does not justify calling a confirmed breakout. This ruling is invalidated by a sustained move above 0.4786 with momentum holding rather than fading.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: mixed. Evidence families: RSI(14) 68.3, price above SMA20/SMA50/SMA200 by 9.5%/11.1%/10.8%, expanding MACD histogram at +0.004748, and bearish SMA50-vs-SMA200 spread of -0.3%. Conflicts: strong momentum versus overhead resistance at 0.4786 and the bearish moving-average structure. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish-leaning. Evidence families: Fear & Greed 71, long accounts 56.2% with L/S 1.28, and taker buy/sell at 0.99. Conflicts: greed and long skew support upside, but taker flow is not buying-dominant and StockTwits has no usable sample. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
THORChain’s reported $2.82 billion Q1 volume and live Solana integration provide a real adoption headline. The more immediate headline is harsher: reports cite a $10.8 million vault hit and MPC risk, which keeps security overhang attached to the rally.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The Solana integration and $2.82 billion Q1 volume point to meaningful network activity. But the $10.8 million vault incident exposes a trust and security risk that can outweigh activity growth if users demand stronger safeguards.
7f8b967789f936305aea1ef4af31bc053349c73754b47b602d4ce74cde34a1214dce84591bab17edc3dcb06a2ee866c2e70ff75132d5ba0582c8c8ce8beda186Committed 2026-08-23T00:20:00+00:00 · 94 rulings that day · Check the chain
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