W / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
W trades at $0.00921 with RSI 41.0 and sits 46.3% below its 200-day average
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-19 07:02 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +4.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-28 — Overweight — +1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Underweight — +1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Neutral — -3.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Underweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -3.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Underweight — +4.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — +2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — +0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -6.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — -6.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -7.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -9.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -5.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -7.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim above $0.00934 with RSI above 50.. Cautious read: a break below $0.00846 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, you're calling a spring while the MACD histogram expands downward at -2.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, you're calling a spring while the MACD histogram expands downward at -2. Key support to defend sits near $0.00846. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I concede the ugliest number, Mara: W is 46.3% under SMA200 and the 60-day high is 33.4% away. But RSI at 41.0 isn't capitulation, Fear & Greed at 28 is already screaming fear, and the 60-day low at $0.00846 sits just 8.9% below—this looks like a battered spring, not a fresh breakdown.
Leo, you're calling a spring while the MACD histogram expands downward at -2.706e-05. Price is below every major moving average—5.4% under SMA20, 7.9% under SMA50, and 46.3% under SMA200—and the 24-hour tape still bleeds 2.746%. Fear is not a catalyst; it is the bill arriving after sellers have done the work.
· Oversold bounce from $0.00846
· Unreported Wormhole-specific catalyst
· Short squeeze despite balanced positioning
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim above $0.00934 with RSI above 50.
Mara, the 60-day low is $0.00846, not some distant abyss. At $0.00921, W has room to stabilize before that floor breaks.
Leo, 8.9% is downside space, not support confirmation. The taker buy/sell ratio is 0.88, so the active flow still favors sellers.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the 60-day low is $0.00846, not some distant abyss. At $0.00921, W has room to stabilize before that floor breaks.
Leo, 8.9% is downside space, not support confirmation. The taker buy/sell ratio is 0.88, so the active flow still favors sellers.
Leo, I checked the positioning exhibit: long accounts are 49.3% and the L/S ratio is 0.97. That isn't a crowded short squeeze setup; it is roughly balanced positioning with weak taker demand.
Theo's point matters. With no Wormhole-specific headline catalyst and broad macro headlines dominated by payments and regulation, there is no liquidity impulse here to rescue a broken trend.
I award the ruling to Mara's bear case, and the decisive exhibit is W trading 46.3% below SMA200 while the MACD histogram expands at -2.706e-05. I would overturn this ruling only if W reclaims $0.00934 and RSI rises above 50, proving the immediate breakdown has reversed.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Bearish. W is below SMA20 by 5.4%, SMA50 by 7.9%, and SMA200 by 46.3%; the SMA50/SMA200 spread is -41.6%. MACD histogram is -2.706e-05 and expanding, while RSI 41.0 offers no reversal signal yet.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Bearish. Fear & Greed is 28, taker buy/sell is 0.88, and long accounts are only 49.3% with an L/S ratio of 0.97. The crowd isn't aggressively long, but sellers still control execution.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: Neutral. The headlines concern Zcash privacy infrastructure, Polymarket regulation, banking access, Bitcoin governance, and Brazil's payments system—not Wormhole-specific catalysts. No W listing, partnership, unlock, or protocol headline is supplied.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: Limited and neutral. The data pack provides no Wormhole revenue, usage, token-supply, unlock, or valuation metrics. Fundamentals cannot offset the chart's persistent deterioration on this evidence.
676fd0110a29e95e70cb75e1156abbb24dab7504f78269b7b6d2f0003f3e0b42f4fc7312c5be5f7d7eea56f69a8be2b8607d9ddd9672db388d49defd4b1498d1Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain
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2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25