W / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
W sits at $0.008223 with a 40.1% discount to its SMA200
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-14 01:40 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Neutral — -3.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-21 — Underweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -3.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Underweight — +4.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — +2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — +0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -6.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — -6.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -7.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -9.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -6.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — +1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -5.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -7.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained close above $0.00830 with RSI above 50.. Cautious read: a break below $0.00777 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: That MACD print is shrinking, Leo, so your supposed spark is a candle in a rainstorm.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: That MACD print is shrinking, Leo, so your supposed spark is a candle in a rainstorm. Key support to defend sits near $0.00777. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number: W is 40.1% below its SMA200, and the 60-day high is still 38.2% away. But RSI at 42.5 isn’t capitulation, the MACD histogram is positive at +4.319e-05, and price has held a modest 7-day gain of 0.4%; the knife may be losing speed.
That MACD print is shrinking, Leo, so your supposed spark is a candle in a rainstorm. The decisive structure is still bearish: W sits below every major average, down 14.6% over 30 days, while the 60-day low at $0.00777 is only 5.7% away.
The bearish thesis still has room because the 60-day low is only $0.00777, just 5.7% below price, and the 30-day loss is already 14.6%; a break of that floor could expose a sharper air pocket. The prior record shows 1 WIN and 0 LOSS for underweight calls, with seven pushes, so the downside thesis has not yet been disproven.
The fastest failure is a reflexive rebound through $0.00830: RSI at 42.5 is weak but not crushed, and the MACD histogram remains positive at +4.319e-05. The fragile exhibit is the bearish continuation assumption, because price is only 1.8% below SMA20.
Leo overreaches by treating a contracting MACD histogram as a reversal, while Mara overreaches if she treats fear alone as a fresh catalyst. The deciding condition is whether W breaks $0.00777 or reclaims $0.00830 with RSI above 50.
· Oversold rebound from $0.00777
· Crowded long-account unwind already partly priced
· Unexpected Wormhole-specific adoption catalyst
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained close above $0.00830 with RSI above 50.
Mara, Fear & Greed at 29 means fear is already visible in the price. A move from $0.008223 toward even the SMA20 would require only a modest repair, not a miracle.
Leo, the crowd isn’t merely fearful; 60.5% of long accounts remain long and the L/S ratio is 1.53. That is hope wearing a helmet, while taker buy/sell at 0.93 says aggressive demand still isn’t showing up.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, Fear & Greed at 29 means fear is already visible in the price. A move from $0.008223 toward even the SMA20 would require only a modest repair, not a miracle.
Leo, the crowd isn’t merely fearful; 60.5% of long accounts remain long and the L/S ratio is 1.53. That is hope wearing a helmet, while taker buy/sell at 0.93 says aggressive demand still isn’t showing up.
I’m with Mara on the flow tape: 0.93 is below balance, and the long-account skew is concrete. Funding is absent, so nobody gets to invent a squeeze catalyst.
The SEC’s repeated delays around tokenization and Reg Crypto add no liquidity impulse for a battered micro-asset. W needs a macro tide; the pack shows none.
I rule for the bears: underweight wins on the decisive exhibit, W’s price is 40.1% below SMA200 while the shorter-term rebound evidence is fading. The call is overturned by a sustained move above $0.00830 with RSI reclaiming 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
W trades 1.8% below SMA20, 9.8% below SMA50, and 40.1% below SMA200; the moving-average structure is decisively bearish. RSI 42.5 and a contracting positive MACD histogram offer only a weak stabilization attempt, while the 60-day low at $0.00777 is just 5.7% beneath price.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear & Greed is 29, and taker buy/sell is 0.93, showing defensive flow. Yet 60.5% of long accounts and an L/S ratio of 1.53 leave the crowd leaning the wrong way as W sits 14.6% lower over 30 days.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The W-specific headlines are mostly conversion pages, with one report on Wormhole confirming SUI’s launch on Solana. Broader SEC headlines describe further delays around tokenization and crypto regulation, offering no direct catalyst for W.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The data pack supplies no token-supply, adoption, revenue, or protocol-growth figures for Wormhole. Fundamental conviction is therefore limited, and the available evidence cannot justify a months-long bullish case.
1599e9025c0b6a40a3da7a36e1743ae47f0e0674eb6e76165ef5ae8c34e6d56e53f40f609f1c3a40d35f95df8482a1a109627902af10da6eeb4433219b8978bcCommitted 2026-08-15T00:20:00+00:00 · 95 rulings that day · Check the chain
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