@rektcapital — settled call record
#9 of 14 ranked KOLs Rated — sample threshold met
✓ Source check: 0 unavailable · 6/6 covered · last sweep 2026-09-15
0%
Hit rate · 0 hits · 4 misses · n=4
avg |move| of hits (absolute, vs USD) —
Rate rule: kol_directional_v1 — read the full rule →
95% CI [0.0% – 49.0%] · Wilson 95% interval — where the true rate likely sits.
Last settled 2026-08-25 (21d ago)
Small sample — the interval is wide and the number will move.
BTC
In three sentences
What @rektcapital has been sayingcycle historian
- Argues current Bitcoin rallies are fake-outs within a Bear Market, not the start of a new Bull phase. source ↗
- Relies on macro trendlines (drawn since late 2025) and EMAs to define current market structure. source ↗
- Disputes claims the bottom is in, pointing out that corrections haven't been deep enough historically. source ↗
- Warns against FOMO at resistance, suggesting it's better to buy during red days or panic. source ↗
AI-distilled — our read of 144 public posts from the last 30 days, not their words. Every line links to the original so you can check us.
If you had followed
Follow the calls, or just hold BTC?
+$2following every call
+$9just holding BTC
-$7the difference
4 live · 52 backtested — never merged into one number.
These dollar figures are carried by backtests — hypothetical performance from applying the same rule to past statements, not a live track record. Live records: 4 / 56.
Each call is an independent $100 position, closed after 7 days — no compounding, no fees, no slippage. How this is scored →
Hit rate over time
Breakdown
By coin
BTC: 0%
n=4 · thin
By call
—: 0%
n=4 · thin
By window
30d: 0%
n=4 · thin
90d: 0%
n=4 · thin
All time: 0%
n=4 · thin
Directional record
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ↓ Bearish | Bitcoin has indeed broken down from the 200-week SMA in August | MISS +22.4% | +22.4% | 2026-08-25T00:00:04.309121+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC | ↓ Bearish | Naturally, Bear Market corrections tend to be deeper than even the deepest Bull Market pullbacks | MISS +15.0% | +15.0% | 2026-08-21T00:00:07.461108+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC | ↓ Bearish | At some point the bounces will become so weak that the floor will simply break | MISS +9.2% | +9.2% | 2026-08-20T00:00:07.543369+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC | ↓ Bearish | Bitcoin has Weekly Closed beneath the Lower High (black) once again, technically solidifying it as resistance for yet another consecutive week | MISS +0.9% | +0.9% | 2026-08-18T00:00:13.143493+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Backtested records
Hit rate: 30%
18 hits · 41 misses · n=59
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin has successfully retested its final major Weekly resistance into new support New All Time Highs are here | MISS +0.3% | +0.3% | 2026-08-18T21:00:27.431579+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Ethereum is slowly getting ready to rally across its entire $2500-$3900 Macro Range (black-black) | HIT +14.7% | +17.8% | 2026-08-18T21:00:26.497651+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin is on the cusp of a breakout from its short-term pattern (blue) | HIT +6.6% | +6.6% | 2026-08-18T21:00:25.156662+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin just about Daily Closed above the Daily diagonal resistance | HIT +5.9% | +5.9% | 2026-08-18T21:00:19.972897+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | → Sideways | the meandering between $2200-$2500 is set to continue | MISS +5.5% | +8.7% | 2026-08-18T21:00:17.140070+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin has broken two 2-week Downtrends over the past month | MISS +0.8% | +0.8% | 2026-08-18T21:00:13.471601+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Soon, Bitcoin will be entering its 5th week where it treats $104400 as support | MISS -2.6% | -2.6% | 2026-08-18T20:30:19.312935+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Looks like Ethereum has positioned itself for a reclaim of the Macro Range ($2500-$4000) | MISS -1.3% | +2.8% | 2026-08-18T20:30:09.258298+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin hasn't just broken the Downtrend and successfully retested it as support for the first time since Downtrend formation But Bitcoin has also been able to sustainably maintain above the Downtrend for a period of several consecutive days now | HIT +11.2% | +11.2% | 2026-08-18T18:00:13.792240+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Bitcoin is experiencing downside continuation after upside wicking into the early March Weekly lows (red) | MISS +1.7% | +1.7% | 2026-08-18T18:00:10.426069+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | After its latest advance, Bitcoin is now pulling back towards the general Daily CME Gap area outlined a few days ago | MISS -0.6% | -0.6% | 2026-08-18T17:30:12.931920+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin has most recently Daily Closed above the 200 EMA and in fact is now in the process of retesting it into new support | HIT +3.6% | +3.6% | 2026-08-18T17:30:12.028753+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin will try to completely fill the brand new CME Gap that formed earlier this week between $82245 and $87000 | MISS -0.3% | -0.3% | 2026-08-18T17:30:07.645140+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | the idea of a weakening support at ~$63300 (orange) is still in play | HIT -3.1% | -3.1% | 2026-08-17T13:00:29.117453+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | But what the data hides is that the second half of August in Bear Markets tends to be more bearish | MISS -0.8% | -0.8% | 2026-08-17T13:00:03.364045+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Looks like #BTC is rejecting from the 50-Month EMA | MISS -0.5% | -0.5% | 2026-08-17T11:30:12.912372+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | History suggests this move could end as a weaker rally to form yet another Macro Lower High | HIT -3.2% | -3.2% | 2026-08-17T11:30:09.539840+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Macro-wise, this is still looking very 2022-esque whereby any relief would see the 50-Month EMA (purple) turn into new resistance | HIT -4.0% | -4.0% | 2026-08-17T11:30:07.268773+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | The 200-week SMA (orange) continues to act as support in the short-term | MISS +2.3% | +2.3% | 2026-08-17T11:00:12.892815+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin is therefore likely to continue experiencing relief throughout July and so a brief reclaim of the 200-week SMA wouldn't be out of the ordinary to enable that limited relief-focused upside | MISS +0.2% | +0.2% | 2026-08-17T10:30:09.171525+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | History suggests neither of these technical milestones will happen and that the Bear Market still has ~6 months to go | MISS +1.1% | +1.1% | 2026-08-17T10:30:08.500003+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Generally, prices tends to lose the 50-Month EMA and then turn it into new resistance before additional downside over time | MISS +3.8% | +3.8% | 2026-08-17T10:00:17.317331+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin continues to shape up for a mid-Summer relief rally | HIT +8.1% | +8.1% | 2026-08-17T10:00:14.248660+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | any relief would see the 50-Month EMA (purple) turn into new resistance | MISS +5.2% | +5.2% | 2026-08-17T10:00:08.532558+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | More, history suggests that this deviation will go even lower over time | MISS +3.0% | +3.0% | 2026-08-17T10:00:02.742374+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | it's very likely that the rebound from here will be even weaker And this is how the ~$60,000 area will be completely lost as support over time | MISS -1.7% | -1.7% | 2026-08-17T09:30:13.896833+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Bitcoin is getting close to a bottom but it's not there quite yet and there's still time left | HIT -6.6% | -6.6% | 2026-08-17T09:30:09.550287+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Previous crashes which occurred on high seller volume in this Bear Market actually preceded temporary local bottoms to kickstart limited rallies of relief | MISS -5.3% | -5.3% | 2026-08-17T09:30:06.513348+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Additional macro downside likely to still come | HIT -3.7% | -3.7% | 2026-08-17T09:00:16.606061+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | This current bounce is most likely going to demonstrate how $60,000 is a progressively weakening support before breakdown over time | MISS -0.1% | -0.1% | 2026-08-17T09:00:14.511872+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Bitcoin producing a limited rebound from ~$60000 to demonstrate weakening support | MISS +5.1% | +5.1% | 2026-08-17T09:00:11.008470+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Historically, Bitcoin has deviated anything between -14% to -31% below the 200-week SMA to find its absolute Bear Market Bottom | MISS +5.9% | +5.9% | 2026-08-17T09:00:07.193186+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Bitcoin is getting close to a bottom but it's not there quite yet | MISS +4.1% | +4.1% | 2026-08-17T08:30:10.024936+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | The good news is there are 1-2 such clusters left in this Bitcoin Bear Market, with the Bear Market Bottom being the final cluster | MISS -0.4% | -0.4% | 2026-08-17T08:30:09.058041+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | The Bitcoin EMAs that tend to figure as support in Bull Markets and as resistance in Bear Markets are acting as resistance right now | HIT -13.2% | -13.2% | 2026-08-17T08:00:12.024308+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | → Sideways | confirming that price will be consolidating within the CME Gap until further notice | MISS -4.3% | -4.3% | 2026-08-17T07:30:07.923563+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | This meandering will likely continue... but somehow ultimately fail to resolve with sizeable bullish momentum before transitioning into Macro Downside over time | MISS +1.9% | +1.9% | 2026-08-17T06:30:07.661153+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | As things stand, Bitcoin is treating both 2021 and 2024 old All Time Highs as resistance | MISS -2.7% | -2.7% | 2026-08-17T06:00:15.301907+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | As a result, this technically means that the 200-week EMA continues to figure as resistance | MISS -0.6% | -0.6% | 2026-08-17T05:30:29.030061+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | this was the pivot point for trend acceleration to the upside however Bitcoin's price wasn't able to break it to enter prolonged Price Discovery | HIT -10.9% | -10.9% | 2026-08-17T05:30:06.904243+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | History suggests that the Range breakout is a matter of time because the 12-Month Close is poised to occur above $93500 | MISS -5.2% | -5.2% | 2026-08-17T04:30:23.021308+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | → Sideways | The Bitcoin Weekly Close is in and price will now try to build a floor at the ~$86k level so as to develop a newfound range here | HIT -1.7% | -1.7% | 2026-08-17T04:30:16.000371+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | There's a high probability the Weekly Candle Closes below the 50-week EMA and so the price reaction that follows over the next couple of weeks or so will be macro trend-defining | HIT -7.9% | -7.9% | 2026-08-17T04:30:11.507849+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | → Sideways | Ethereum is still holding its Range (black-black) | HIT -1.0% | +4.4% | 2026-08-17T04:00:32.003700+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | → Sideways | #BTC continues to hold higher timeframe support | MISS +4.2% | +4.2% | 2026-08-17T04:00:31.194927+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | In fact, Bitcoin is maintaining this EMA as support at candle-bodied Higher and Higher Lows | MISS +1.7% | +1.7% | 2026-08-17T04:00:29.568348+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin continues to maintain itself above the 21-week EMA (green) ... Bitcoin is maintaining this EMA as support at candle-bodied Higher and Higher Lows | MISS -4.0% | -4.0% | 2026-08-17T04:00:18.002705+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SOL backtested | ↑ Bullish | $SOL has just broken out to $245 | MISS -1.5% | -1.5% | 2026-08-17T03:30:03.608279+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Which will it be - reclaim for new All Time Highs soon or one last pullback before new All Time Highs later? | MISS -3.8% | -4.0% | 2026-08-17T03:30:02.597848+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| DOGE backtested | ↑ Bullish | $DOGE is showing real signs of the $0.27 resistance weakening as a point of rejection | MISS -3.5% | -1.8% | 2026-08-17T03:00:16.216194+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | So far, so good | MISS -2.3% | -2.3% | 2026-08-17T03:00:07.126593+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SUI backtested | ↑ Bullish | SUI continues to successfully post-breakout retest the top of its Macro Triangle into new support | MISS -2.1% | -2.1% | 2026-08-17T03:00:06.813290+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | The goal is for Bitcoin to reclaim $114k into support first | MISS -0.0% | -0.0% | 2026-08-17T03:00:06.244598+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| DOGE backtested | ↑ Bullish | Looks like Dogecoin has finally turned the Pre-Halving highs into new support | MISS -7.3% | -7.5% | 2026-08-17T03:00:05.092144+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | $113k was a weak resistance | MISS -0.3% | -0.3% | 2026-08-17T02:30:15.997618+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin has Daily Closed above the Bull Flag top & is successfully retesting it into support to fully confirm the breakout | MISS -7.3% | -7.3% | 2026-08-17T02:00:27.746941+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | $ETH has turned a long-standing Downtrend dating back to late 2021 into new support | MISS +3.0% | +3.8% | 2026-08-17T02:00:17.458804+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | → Sideways | The Range-bound movement continues | HIT +1.5% | +1.5% | 2026-08-17T02:00:06.781016+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | → Sideways | Bitcoin continues to simply hold its Range Low (blue) and Higher Low (black) as support; The Range-bound movement continues | HIT -2.4% | -2.4% | 2026-08-17T02:00:06.239088+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Price-target record
Hit rate: 0%
0 hits · 5 misses · n=5
Graded under price_target_v1 — did the stated price target print? A different rule, never merged into the directional rate above.
| Coin | Call | Result | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | <= $66000 | MISS | 2026-09-01 | verdict → |
| BTC | — | MISS | 2026-08-25 | verdict → |
| BTC | — | MISS | 2026-08-21 | verdict → |
| BTC | — | MISS | 2026-08-20 | verdict → |
| BTC | >= $66000 | MISS | 2026-08-01 | verdict → |
Backtested records
Hit rate: 52%
15 hits · 14 misses · n=29
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
| Coin | Call | Result | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC backtested | >= $119200 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | > $119200 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | > $108890 | HIT | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $104400 | HIT | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | > $104400 | HIT | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | > $106600 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $97000 | HIT | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | < $104500 | HIT | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | > $93500 | HIT | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $86900 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $86800 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | — | HIT | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| SUI backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | — | HIT | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| DOGE backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | — | HIT | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| SOL backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | > $93500 | MISS | 2026-08-01 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $93500 | MISS | 2026-08-01 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $86000 | HIT | 2026-08-01 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | > $108400 | HIT | 2026-07-31 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $108000 | MISS | 2026-07-31 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $111000 | MISS | 2026-07-31 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | > $114500 | MISS | 2026-07-31 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | > $114000 | HIT | 2026-07-30 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $117200 | HIT | 2026-07-30 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | < $68300 | HIT | 2026-07-28 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | < $63200 | HIT | 2026-07-08 | verdict → |
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Side by side with CoinVerdict
CoinVerdict win rate (settle_v1 vs BTC): 63%
Same ruler on both sides: kol_directional_v1 runs on identical parameters to settle_v1 — a 7-day window, a ±3% band, altcoins scored vs BTC and BTC vs USD. That is why the hit rate above and CoinVerdict's 63% can sit side by side. · How the two differ →
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