@CredibleCrypto — settled call record
#11 of 14 ranked KOLs Rated — sample threshold met
✓ Source check: 0 unavailable · 8/8 covered · last sweep 2026-08-31
12%
Hit rate · 1 hits · 7 misses · n=8
avg |move| of hits (absolute, vs USD) ±9.2%
(computable 1/1)
Rate rule: kol_directional_v1 — read the full rule →
95% CI [2.2% – 47.1%] · Wilson 95% interval — where the true rate likely sits.
Last settled 2026-08-30 (1d ago)
Small sample — the interval is wide and the number will move.
BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP
In three sentences
What @CredibleCrypto has been sayingTrend Trader
- Characterizes the recent market rally as the start of a major expansion phase, confirming a macro bottom. source ↗
- Advocates for accumulating assets when they are ignored or bearish, rather than chasing upward price movement. source ↗
- Actively promotes specific low-cap assets like CRV and CVX by highlighting tokenomics and revenue models. source ↗
- Uses Elliott Wave Theory to predict price movements, suggesting current structures are impulsive beginnings. source ↗
AI-distilled — our read of 145 public posts from the last 30 days, not their words. Every line links to the original so you can check us.
If you had followed
Follow the calls, or just hold BTC?
-$41following every call
+$54just holding BTC
-$95the difference
8 live · 49 backtested — never merged into one number.
These dollar figures are carried by backtests — hypothetical performance from applying the same rule to past statements, not a live track record. Live records: 8 / 57.
Each call is an independent $100 position, closed after 7 days — no compounding, no fees, no slippage. How this is scored →
Best call (absolute move vs USD, within computable sample)
BTC
+9.2%
resolved 2026-08-20T00:00:06.885495+00:00
earliest computable hit: 2026-08-20T00:00:06.885495+00:00 · computable 1/1
Hit rate over time
Breakdown
By coin
BTC: 33%
n=3 · thin
ETH: 0%
n=3 · thin
SOL: 0%
n=1 · thin
XRP: 0%
n=1 · thin
By call
—: 12%
n=8 · thin
By window
30d: 12%
n=8 · thin
90d: 12%
n=8 · thin
All time: 12%
n=8 · thin
Directional record
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | ↑ Bullish | Ultimately think the next "larger" move will be back to the upside/range highs. | MISS -5.9% | -4.5% | 2026-08-30T00:00:07.643292+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC | ↑ Bullish | The move that we saw over the last 48 hours has ignited a rally that has been 5+ years in the making. | MISS +1.5% | +1.5% | 2026-08-30T00:00:05.263585+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC | ↑ Bullish | There is no doubt in my mind that we are preparing for something similar now. | MISS -0.6% | -0.6% | 2026-08-29T00:00:06.877087+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH | ↑ Bullish | The move over the last 24 hours was JUST THE START. | MISS -2.3% | -2.9% | 2026-08-29T00:00:05.195870+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH | ↑ Bullish | this screams full-on, macro bottom reversals on both $BTC and ethereum:native as well as some other solid alts. | MISS -1.8% | +7.9% | 2026-08-28T00:00:05.249106+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH | ↑ Bullish | $ETH is primed for 20k+ on the HTF | MISS -2.4% | +11.3% | 2026-08-27T00:00:07.915612+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SOL | ↓ Bearish | The meme casino has drained whatever liquidity was left, people have been rugged out of their last dollars, and this is the result imo. | MISS +3.3% | +25.4% | 2026-08-26T00:00:08.419482+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC | ↑ Bullish | Higher. | HIT +9.2% | +9.2% | 2026-08-20T00:00:06.885495+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Backtested records
Hit rate: 20%
10 hits · 40 misses · n=50
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | my HTF indicators point towards a bull market | MISS -10.9% | -10.9% | 2026-08-18T23:30:10.923637+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| XRP backtested | ↑ Bullish | Based on context with where Bitcoin and the broader market is at this time, I am betting on option #2 playing out, which means I will be looking for longs into GREEN while targeting some of the untapped highs above us. | MISS -1.3% | -9.0% | 2026-08-18T23:30:07.665027+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | That being said I think an initial rejection in that zone and some chop for a month or so would be very realistic before a sustained move back to the upside. | MISS +0.8% | +0.8% | 2026-08-18T23:00:15.969646+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | It wasn’t too long ago that $ETH was trading at $1400 and this type of sentiment was just as common then too before we literally rallied to new ATH in the span of 4 months. | MISS +2.0% | +5.3% | 2026-08-18T23:00:15.618637+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ADA backtested | ↑ Bullish | ultimately new ATH and double digits by end of cycle (post BTC top). | HIT +5.2% | +6.8% | 2026-08-18T23:00:06.715164+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Path of least resistance was in fact, up. | MISS -6.6% | -6.6% | 2026-08-18T22:30:18.153911+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | That being said this still looks like path of least resistance on lower timeframes is up. | MISS +2.3% | +2.3% | 2026-08-18T22:30:17.258487+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | don't let emotion psych you out of a very healthy, strong high timeframe uptend on $BTC. | HIT +4.2% | +4.2% | 2026-08-18T22:30:16.890262+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Just as confident as ever that our cycle top is not in yet. | HIT +3.2% | +3.2% | 2026-08-18T22:30:16.601973+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | the next leg to 150k+ has begun imo. | MISS -11.1% | -11.1% | 2026-08-18T22:30:12.289587+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | We blast through it. | MISS -6.9% | -6.9% | 2026-08-18T22:30:09.814902+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | HTF target is obvs much higher. | HIT +4.7% | +4.7% | 2026-08-18T22:30:03.916570+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| XRP backtested | ↑ Bullish | I believe $CRV (along with $XRP) will soon begin to outperform against $ETH. | MISS -2.5% | -5.1% | 2026-08-18T22:00:23.251185+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| XRP backtested | ↑ Bullish | Meanwhile, $XRP is wrapping up it's 9th month of consolidation at prior ATH and is likely gearing up for it's next leg sooner rather than later. | MISS +1.0% | +3.6% | 2026-08-18T22:00:14.051012+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | If you watched my last Youtube vid then you know that all we did was test the "BEST R/R" zone for Bitcoin longs, which is the most likely place for us to form a full on reversal off of. | MISS -4.6% | -4.6% | 2026-08-18T22:00:10.136886+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| XRP backtested | ↑ Bullish | Meanwhile, $XRP is wrapping up it's 9th month of consolidation at prior ATH and is likely gearing up for it's next leg sooner rather than later. | MISS -1.5% | -6.6% | 2026-08-18T22:00:08.370329+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | $BTC long almost at target. | HIT +7.2% | +7.2% | 2026-08-18T21:30:16.100924+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Bitcoin has finally broken down the lows as the prior support zone ended up giving way. | HIT -3.7% | -3.7% | 2026-08-18T21:30:10.647766+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| XRP backtested | ↑ Bullish | Overall nothing bearish about this chart- this dip is normal/healthy. | MISS -1.8% | -3.9% | 2026-08-18T21:30:09.242079+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| XRP backtested | ↓ Bearish | No still looking for a bit lower on $XRP as my downside target on it hasn't been met yet. | MISS -2.5% | +1.1% | 2026-08-18T20:30:25.475761+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | I longed BTC because it has a very tight invalidation level | MISS +2.2% | +2.2% | 2026-08-18T20:00:28.063367+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| XRP backtested | ↑ Bullish | I remain more bullish than ever on $XRP and its continued outperformance, this would just be a small speed bump along the way, nothing more. | HIT +4.9% | +12.1% | 2026-08-18T18:00:08.998391+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | We have about 10% downside to get there and then HTF support is another 20% below that. | MISS +6.9% | +6.9% | 2026-08-18T17:30:07.620744+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| XRP backtested | ↑ Bullish | I think $XRP is probably going to make new ATH a lot quicker than most are expecting- and I think it's going to vastly outperform both $BTC and $ETH from current levels while doing it. | MISS -15.0% | -27.2% | 2026-08-18T17:00:10.512926+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | BTC and ETH look more primed for a further correction | MISS +0.4% | -0.9% | 2026-08-17T13:00:08.013602+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | ...while BTC and ETH look more primed for a further correction (liq resting below). | MISS -0.7% | +1.3% | 2026-08-17T12:30:10.682405+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Game theory says I want these people sidelined because they'll be the fuel that pushes us from 5k to 10k, and 10k to 20k, and 20k to 30k when they eventually fomo in later on. | MISS +2.9% | +2.5% | 2026-08-17T11:00:04.370577+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | we are gonna RUN IT BACK but this time we don't just eclipse prior ATH we are gonna smash far past them. | MISS -0.3% | +2.2% | 2026-08-17T10:30:06.431672+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | This is exactly why ETH will pump to unimaginable numbers. | MISS -0.1% | +2.6% | 2026-08-17T10:30:05.306756+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | still think a sweep of the lows at $1504 is likely | MISS +4.4% | +8.3% | 2026-08-17T10:00:16.554223+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | But in this case I think the more likely outcome is some further chop from $BTC (but ultimately new all time highs) and the beginning of some level of alt-coin outperformance. | HIT +6.3% | +6.3% | 2026-08-17T10:00:12.221514+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | the deviation, 1.5 year consolidation below, and subsequent reclaim of the lows makes me believe this is one massive accumulation structure which gives me a strong bullish bias as we approach the range lows. | HIT +6.8% | +6.8% | 2026-08-17T10:00:10.284577+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Continue higher we did | MISS -0.3% | -3.8% | 2026-08-17T09:00:17.223016+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| XRP backtested | ↓ Bearish | So for XRP its not so much about grabbing liquidity as it is drifting down to a zone where buyers are more keen to step in. | MISS +0.2% | -0.1% | 2026-08-17T09:00:16.339594+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | still think most logical outcome on $BTC for now is relief to just over 70k into our newly formed supply zone. | MISS -0.2% | -0.2% | 2026-08-17T09:00:15.112279+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| XRP backtested | ↑ Bullish | Longed some $XRP here, a near identical setup to the one shared on $CRV in the quoted tweet below a few days ago (which is now up 30+% since). Clean PO3 targeting $1.70+. | MISS +0.4% | +0.3% | 2026-08-17T09:00:14.821255+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| XRP backtested | ↓ Bearish | $XRP over $ETH until XRP/ETH falls about 30% lower | MISS +3.2% | +8.2% | 2026-08-17T09:00:13.748809+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Now seeing calls for $0 on the feed again so it's time to continue higher soon imo. | MISS +2.9% | +8.0% | 2026-08-17T09:00:13.228147+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Would expect a correction then somewhere into the .50-$1 range, but not below. | MISS +1.2% | +7.1% | 2026-08-17T09:00:07.168455+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | $ETH bulls, now is your time to show up! | MISS +1.1% | +5.2% | 2026-08-17T09:00:05.024376+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| XRP backtested | ↓ Bearish | Ultimately, think $XRP will find it's way to our HTF demand zone in green one way or another | MISS -0.9% | +3.2% | 2026-08-17T09:00:04.983585+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| XRP backtested | ↓ Bearish | I think that pairing is likely to fall at least 20% from here. | HIT -3.3% | -2.9% | 2026-08-17T07:30:11.070841+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Now let's see if we can push to around 80k-ish to hit that local inefficiency... | MISS -0.5% | -0.5% | 2026-08-17T07:30:09.841822+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | As previously stated- I believe the $BTC bottom is likely in, so the most logical way ETH/BTC moves to the green zone below is more of the same- further $BTC strength as $ETH initially 'lags' | MISS +1.4% | +1.4% | 2026-08-17T07:00:36.146112+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | I do think our macro bottom is in. | MISS +2.5% | +2.5% | 2026-08-17T07:00:33.470856+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| AAVE backtested | ↑ Bullish | Likelihood of a squeeze to the upside is increasing by the day imo. | MISS -4.1% | -4.2% | 2026-08-17T07:00:20.165258+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | In the most bullish case we are already seeing lower TF impulses stacking up on BTC, and in that case the supply above doesn't do much in the way of stopping us and pullbacks don't go lower than 74k (origin of the current LTF impulsive move up). | MISS -3.1% | -3.1% | 2026-08-17T06:30:12.541793+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | → Sideways | Pretty much sitting on my hands and letting $BTC make it's way to one of these daily range extremes. | MISS +5.0% | +5.0% | 2026-08-17T05:30:27.461303+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Ultimately, $ETH is simply in a massive range since 2021 that I am pretty confident will break to the upside. | MISS -0.8% | -0.0% | 2026-08-17T05:30:13.478836+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| XRP backtested | ↑ Bullish | I did the exact same thing with $XRP at .18- once again, when so many claimed it was "dead" and would never recover. | MISS -1.6% | -10.1% | 2026-08-17T05:30:05.996047+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Price-target record
Hit rate: 12%
1 hits · 7 misses · n=8
Graded under price_target_v1 — did the stated price target print? A different rule, never merged into the directional rate above.
| Coin | Call | Result | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | — | MISS | 2026-08-30 | verdict → |
| XRP | — | MISS | 2026-08-30 | verdict → |
| BTC | — | MISS | 2026-08-29 | verdict → |
| ETH | — | MISS | 2026-08-29 | verdict → |
| ETH | — | MISS | 2026-08-28 | verdict → |
| ETH | — | MISS | 2026-08-27 | verdict → |
| SOL | — | MISS | 2026-08-26 | verdict → |
| BTC | — | HIT | 2026-08-20 | verdict → |
Backtested records
Hit rate: 18%
2 hits · 9 misses · n=11
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
| Coin | Call | Result | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC backtested | >= $200000 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $200000 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| ADA backtested | — | HIT | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| XRP backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| XRP backtested | < $2.2 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| AAVE backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | — | HIT | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| XRP backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
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Side by side with CoinVerdict
CoinVerdict win rate (settle_v1 vs BTC): 64%
Same ruler on both sides: kol_directional_v1 runs on identical parameters to settle_v1 — a 7-day window, a ±3% band, altcoins scored vs BTC and BTC vs USD. That is why the hit rate above and CoinVerdict's 64% can sit side by side. · How the two differ →
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