@CredibleCrypto 的已结算叫单档案
第 11 / 共 14 位已入榜 KOL 已达可评级样本
✓ 来源巡检:0 不可用检出 · 覆盖 8/8 · 最近巡检 2026-08-31
12%
命中率 · 1 中 · 7 错 · n=8
命中平均幅度(绝对口径,对美元) ±9.2%
(可计算样本 1/1)
记分规则:kol_directional_v1 —— 看规则全文 →
95% 置信区间 [2.2% – 47.1%] · Wilson 95% 区间——真实胜率大致落在这个范围。
最近结算 2026-08-30(1 天前)
样本不足——区间较宽,数字还会变动。
BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP
三句话看懂
@CredibleCrypto 最近在说什么趋势交易员
- 将近期市场走势定性为宏观筑底完成，认为大规模扩张阶段已经开始。 原话 ↗
- 建议在资产被忽视或低迷时布局，强调在无人关注时买入以免追高。 原话 ↗
- 积极推荐特定小市值资产（如CRV和CVX），并侧重于解读其代币经济和收入模式。 原话 ↗
- 运用艾略特波浪理论预测行情，认为当前结构是推动浪的开始。 原话 ↗
AI 提炼 —— 这是我们对他最近 30 天 145 条公开发言的解读,不是他本人的话。每句都挂原文,欢迎对着核。
如果你跟了
跟他做,还是自己拿 BTC?
-$41跟他每一条
+$54什么都不做拿 BTC
-$95差额
实时 8 条 · 补算 49 条 —— 永不合并成一个数字。
这页金额由回测撑起 —— 把同一套规则套到历史言论上得出的假设业绩(hypothetical performance),不是实时跟单战绩。实时记录:8 / 57 条。
每条喊单当作独立投入 $100,7 天后平仓 —— 非滚仓,不含费用与滑点。 怎么算的 →
最佳喊单(绝对幅度对美元,可计算样本内)
BTC
+9.2%
结算于 2026-08-20T00:00:06.885495+00:00
最早可计算命中记录:2026-08-20T00:00:06.885495+00:00 · 可计算样本 1/1
命中率走势
分维度战绩
按币种
BTC: 33%
n=3 · 样本少
ETH: 0%
n=3 · 样本少
SOL: 0%
n=1 · 样本少
XRP: 0%
n=1 · 样本少
按喊单
—: 12%
n=8 · 样本少
按时间窗
30d: 12%
n=8 · 样本少
90d: 12%
n=8 · 样本少
全部: 12%
n=8 · 样本少
方向战绩
| 币种 | 叫单 | 原话 | 相对口径(计入榜单) † | 绝对口径(对美元) † | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | ↑ 看涨 | Ultimately think the next "larger" move will be back to the upside/range highs. | 失误 -5.9% | -4.5% | 2026-08-30T00:00:07.643292+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | The move that we saw over the last 48 hours has ignited a rally that has been 5+ years in the making. | 失误 +1.5% | +1.5% | 2026-08-30T00:00:05.263585+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | There is no doubt in my mind that we are preparing for something similar now. | 失误 -0.6% | -0.6% | 2026-08-29T00:00:06.877087+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH | ↑ 看涨 | The move over the last 24 hours was JUST THE START. | 失误 -2.3% | -2.9% | 2026-08-29T00:00:05.195870+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH | ↑ 看涨 | this screams full-on, macro bottom reversals on both $BTC and ethereum:native as well as some other solid alts. | 失误 -1.8% | +7.9% | 2026-08-28T00:00:05.249106+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH | ↑ 看涨 | $ETH is primed for 20k+ on the HTF | 失误 -2.4% | +11.3% | 2026-08-27T00:00:07.915612+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL | ↓ 看跌 | The meme casino has drained whatever liquidity was left, people have been rugged out of their last dollars, and this is the result imo. | 失误 +3.3% | +25.4% | 2026-08-26T00:00:08.419482+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | Higher. | 命中 +9.2% | +9.2% | 2026-08-20T00:00:06.885495+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。
回测记录
命中率: 20%
10 中 · 40 错 · n=50
从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 原话 | 相对口径(计入榜单) † | 绝对口径(对美元) † | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | my HTF indicators point towards a bull market | 失误 -10.9% | -10.9% | 2026-08-18T23:30:10.923637+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Based on context with where Bitcoin and the broader market is at this time, I am betting on option #2 playing out, which means I will be looking for longs into GREEN while targeting some of the untapped highs above us. | 失误 -1.3% | -9.0% | 2026-08-18T23:30:07.665027+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | That being said I think an initial rejection in that zone and some chop for a month or so would be very realistic before a sustained move back to the upside. | 失误 +0.8% | +0.8% | 2026-08-18T23:00:15.969646+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | It wasn’t too long ago that $ETH was trading at $1400 and this type of sentiment was just as common then too before we literally rallied to new ATH in the span of 4 months. | 失误 +2.0% | +5.3% | 2026-08-18T23:00:15.618637+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ADA 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | ultimately new ATH and double digits by end of cycle (post BTC top). | 命中 +5.2% | +6.8% | 2026-08-18T23:00:06.715164+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Path of least resistance was in fact, up. | 失误 -6.6% | -6.6% | 2026-08-18T22:30:18.153911+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | That being said this still looks like path of least resistance on lower timeframes is up. | 失误 +2.3% | +2.3% | 2026-08-18T22:30:17.258487+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | don't let emotion psych you out of a very healthy, strong high timeframe uptend on $BTC. | 命中 +4.2% | +4.2% | 2026-08-18T22:30:16.890262+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Just as confident as ever that our cycle top is not in yet. | 命中 +3.2% | +3.2% | 2026-08-18T22:30:16.601973+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | the next leg to 150k+ has begun imo. | 失误 -11.1% | -11.1% | 2026-08-18T22:30:12.289587+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | We blast through it. | 失误 -6.9% | -6.9% | 2026-08-18T22:30:09.814902+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | HTF target is obvs much higher. | 命中 +4.7% | +4.7% | 2026-08-18T22:30:03.916570+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I believe $CRV (along with $XRP) will soon begin to outperform against $ETH. | 失误 -2.5% | -5.1% | 2026-08-18T22:00:23.251185+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Meanwhile, $XRP is wrapping up it's 9th month of consolidation at prior ATH and is likely gearing up for it's next leg sooner rather than later. | 失误 +1.0% | +3.6% | 2026-08-18T22:00:14.051012+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | If you watched my last Youtube vid then you know that all we did was test the "BEST R/R" zone for Bitcoin longs, which is the most likely place for us to form a full on reversal off of. | 失误 -4.6% | -4.6% | 2026-08-18T22:00:10.136886+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Meanwhile, $XRP is wrapping up it's 9th month of consolidation at prior ATH and is likely gearing up for it's next leg sooner rather than later. | 失误 -1.5% | -6.6% | 2026-08-18T22:00:08.370329+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $BTC long almost at target. | 命中 +7.2% | +7.2% | 2026-08-18T21:30:16.100924+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Bitcoin has finally broken down the lows as the prior support zone ended up giving way. | 命中 -3.7% | -3.7% | 2026-08-18T21:30:10.647766+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Overall nothing bearish about this chart- this dip is normal/healthy. | 失误 -1.8% | -3.9% | 2026-08-18T21:30:09.242079+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | No still looking for a bit lower on $XRP as my downside target on it hasn't been met yet. | 失误 -2.5% | +1.1% | 2026-08-18T20:30:25.475761+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I longed BTC because it has a very tight invalidation level | 失误 +2.2% | +2.2% | 2026-08-18T20:00:28.063367+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I remain more bullish than ever on $XRP and its continued outperformance, this would just be a small speed bump along the way, nothing more. | 命中 +4.9% | +12.1% | 2026-08-18T18:00:08.998391+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | We have about 10% downside to get there and then HTF support is another 20% below that. | 失误 +6.9% | +6.9% | 2026-08-18T17:30:07.620744+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I think $XRP is probably going to make new ATH a lot quicker than most are expecting- and I think it's going to vastly outperform both $BTC and $ETH from current levels while doing it. | 失误 -15.0% | -27.2% | 2026-08-18T17:00:10.512926+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | BTC and ETH look more primed for a further correction | 失误 +0.4% | -0.9% | 2026-08-17T13:00:08.013602+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | ...while BTC and ETH look more primed for a further correction (liq resting below). | 失误 -0.7% | +1.3% | 2026-08-17T12:30:10.682405+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Game theory says I want these people sidelined because they'll be the fuel that pushes us from 5k to 10k, and 10k to 20k, and 20k to 30k when they eventually fomo in later on. | 失误 +2.9% | +2.5% | 2026-08-17T11:00:04.370577+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | we are gonna RUN IT BACK but this time we don't just eclipse prior ATH we are gonna smash far past them. | 失误 -0.3% | +2.2% | 2026-08-17T10:30:06.431672+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | This is exactly why ETH will pump to unimaginable numbers. | 失误 -0.1% | +2.6% | 2026-08-17T10:30:05.306756+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | still think a sweep of the lows at $1504 is likely | 失误 +4.4% | +8.3% | 2026-08-17T10:00:16.554223+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | But in this case I think the more likely outcome is some further chop from $BTC (but ultimately new all time highs) and the beginning of some level of alt-coin outperformance. | 命中 +6.3% | +6.3% | 2026-08-17T10:00:12.221514+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | the deviation, 1.5 year consolidation below, and subsequent reclaim of the lows makes me believe this is one massive accumulation structure which gives me a strong bullish bias as we approach the range lows. | 命中 +6.8% | +6.8% | 2026-08-17T10:00:10.284577+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Continue higher we did | 失误 -0.3% | -3.8% | 2026-08-17T09:00:17.223016+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | So for XRP its not so much about grabbing liquidity as it is drifting down to a zone where buyers are more keen to step in. | 失误 +0.2% | -0.1% | 2026-08-17T09:00:16.339594+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | still think most logical outcome on $BTC for now is relief to just over 70k into our newly formed supply zone. | 失误 -0.2% | -0.2% | 2026-08-17T09:00:15.112279+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Longed some $XRP here, a near identical setup to the one shared on $CRV in the quoted tweet below a few days ago (which is now up 30+% since). Clean PO3 targeting $1.70+. | 失误 +0.4% | +0.3% | 2026-08-17T09:00:14.821255+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $XRP over $ETH until XRP/ETH falls about 30% lower | 失误 +3.2% | +8.2% | 2026-08-17T09:00:13.748809+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Now seeing calls for $0 on the feed again so it's time to continue higher soon imo. | 失误 +2.9% | +8.0% | 2026-08-17T09:00:13.228147+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Would expect a correction then somewhere into the .50-$1 range, but not below. | 失误 +1.2% | +7.1% | 2026-08-17T09:00:07.168455+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $ETH bulls, now is your time to show up! | 失误 +1.1% | +5.2% | 2026-08-17T09:00:05.024376+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Ultimately, think $XRP will find it's way to our HTF demand zone in green one way or another | 失误 -0.9% | +3.2% | 2026-08-17T09:00:04.983585+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | I think that pairing is likely to fall at least 20% from here. | 命中 -3.3% | -2.9% | 2026-08-17T07:30:11.070841+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Now let's see if we can push to around 80k-ish to hit that local inefficiency... | 失误 -0.5% | -0.5% | 2026-08-17T07:30:09.841822+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | As previously stated- I believe the $BTC bottom is likely in, so the most logical way ETH/BTC moves to the green zone below is more of the same- further $BTC strength as $ETH initially 'lags' | 失误 +1.4% | +1.4% | 2026-08-17T07:00:36.146112+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I do think our macro bottom is in. | 失误 +2.5% | +2.5% | 2026-08-17T07:00:33.470856+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| AAVE 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Likelihood of a squeeze to the upside is increasing by the day imo. | 失误 -4.1% | -4.2% | 2026-08-17T07:00:20.165258+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | In the most bullish case we are already seeing lower TF impulses stacking up on BTC, and in that case the supply above doesn't do much in the way of stopping us and pullbacks don't go lower than 74k (origin of the current LTF impulsive move up). | 失误 -3.1% | -3.1% | 2026-08-17T06:30:12.541793+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | Pretty much sitting on my hands and letting $BTC make it's way to one of these daily range extremes. | 失误 +5.0% | +5.0% | 2026-08-17T05:30:27.461303+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Ultimately, $ETH is simply in a massive range since 2021 that I am pretty confident will break to the upside. | 失误 -0.8% | -0.0% | 2026-08-17T05:30:13.478836+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I did the exact same thing with $XRP at .18- once again, when so many claimed it was "dead" and would never recover. | 失误 -1.6% | -10.1% | 2026-08-17T05:30:05.996047+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。
点位战绩
命中率: 12%
1 中 · 7 错 · n=8
按 price_target_v1 判定——他喊的那个点位有没有踩到。另一把尺,永不与上方方向命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 结果 | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | — | 失误 | 2026-08-30 | 研报 → |
| XRP | — | 失误 | 2026-08-30 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 失误 | 2026-08-29 | 研报 → |
| ETH | — | 失误 | 2026-08-29 | 研报 → |
| ETH | — | 失误 | 2026-08-28 | 研报 → |
| ETH | — | 失误 | 2026-08-27 | 研报 → |
| SOL | — | 失误 | 2026-08-26 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 命中 | 2026-08-20 | 研报 → |
回测记录
命中率: 18%
2 中 · 9 错 · n=11
从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 结果 | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 回测 | >= $200000 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $200000 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| ADA 回测 | — | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | < $2.2 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| AAVE 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | — | 命中 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
相关账号
@CryptoTony__
31%
n=13 · 4 个共同币种
@CryptoMichNL
42%
n=19 · 3 个共同币种
@BigCheds
30%
n=10 · 3 个共同币种
@blknoiz06
67%
n=9 · 3 个共同币种
@AshCrypto
50%
n=6 · 3 个共同币种
与 CoinVerdict 对照
CoinVerdict 胜率(settle_v1 对 BTC): 64%
两个数字用的是同一把尺:kol_directional_v1 与 settle_v1 参数完全一致——7 天窗口、±3% 带宽、山寨对 BTC、BTC 自身对美元。所以上方的命中率与 CoinVerdict 的 64% 才可以并排摆。 · 两套口径有何不同 →
嵌入这张战绩卡
把这段代码粘到你的站点。新的结算产生后,徽章会自动更新。 · 分享图卡(发 X 用 PNG)
实时预览 —— 真实数据,与你站点加载的是同一个脚本。
行内胶囊 · data-cv-style="pill"
浅色卡 · data-cv-style="card"
暗色卡 · data-cv-style="dark"
大数字 · data-cv-style="stat"
媒体与创作者可引用 CoinVerdict 数据,需署名并回链。
数据源:VeraMind 结算账本 · 只记已验证结算,不记未到期叫单。 · 闲聊、复盘、观望不计入账本——只有明确喊单才进结算、才被计分。