@BigCheds 的已结算叫单档案
第 6 / 共 14 位已入榜 KOL 已达可评级样本
✓ 来源巡检:0 不可用检出 · 覆盖 11/11 · 最近巡检 2026-09-01
27%
命中率 · 3 中 · 8 错 · n=11
命中平均幅度(绝对口径,对美元) ±10.0%
(可计算样本 3/3)
记分规则:kol_directional_v1 —— 看规则全文 →
95% 置信区间 [9.7% – 56.6%] · Wilson 95% 区间——真实胜率大致落在这个范围。
最近结算 2026-09-01(0 天前)
样本不足——区间较宽,数字还会变动。
BTC, LINK, SHIB, SOL, TRX, XRP
三句话看懂
@BigCheds 最近在说什么图表原教旨主义者
AI 提炼 —— 这是我们对他最近 30 天 200 条公开发言的解读,不是他本人的话。每句都挂原文,欢迎对着核。
如果你跟了
跟他做,还是自己拿 BTC?
+$87跟他每一条
+$36什么都不做拿 BTC
+$51差额
实时 11 条 · 补算 37 条 —— 永不合并成一个数字。
每条喊单当作独立投入 $100,7 天后平仓 —— 非滚仓,不含费用与滑点。 怎么算的 →
最佳喊单(绝对幅度对美元,可计算样本内)
XRP
+14.6%
结算于 2026-08-28T00:00:08.469213+00:00
最早可计算命中记录:2026-08-28T00:00:08.074145+00:00 · 可计算样本 3/3
命中率走势
分维度战绩
按币种
BTC: 25%
n=4 · 样本少
LINK: 0%
n=3 · 样本少
SHIB: 100%
n=1 · 样本少
SOL: 0%
n=1 · 样本少
TRX: 0%
n=1 · 样本少
XRP: 100%
n=1 · 样本少
按喊单
—: 27%
n=11
按时间窗
30d: 27%
n=11
90d: 27%
n=11
全部: 27%
n=11
方向战绩
| 币种 | 叫单 | 原话 | 相对口径(计入榜单) † | 绝对口径(对美元) † | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | $BTC fresh local highs | 失误 -0.5% | -0.5% | 2026-09-01T00:00:16.852852+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL | ↓ 看跌 | There is no way this high volume high wave outside bar does not mark a short term top. | 失误 +10.9% | +12.6% | 2026-08-30T00:00:09.570132+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SHIB | ↓ 看跌 | $SHIB working on a tweezer top here on daily | 命中 -6.9% | -5.5% | 2026-08-30T00:00:08.198976+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| LINK | ↑ 看涨 | $LINK nice breakout from that ascending triangle | 失误 -4.0% | -4.6% | 2026-08-29T00:00:09.031082+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP | ↑ 看涨 | $XRP bounce into lost support from the first half of 2026 / confluence falling DSMA 200 | 命中 +4.3% | +14.6% | 2026-08-28T00:00:08.469213+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | Target achieved $BTC hits $72960 (73k), meeting my target from the 67k breakout | 命中 +9.9% | +9.9% | 2026-08-28T00:00:08.074145+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| LINK | ↑ 看涨 | $LINK approaching $10 area pivot | 失误 -3.4% | +10.1% | 2026-08-27T00:00:06.751558+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| LINK | ↑ 看涨 | $LINK flexing local breakout with some volume on daily | 失误 +0.7% | +23.0% | 2026-08-23T00:00:06.956755+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| TRX | ↑ 看涨 | TRX flexing a bullish consolidation break | 失误 -2.4% | -0.7% | 2026-08-19T00:00:32.196681+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↓ 看跌 | $BTC weekly - price still pinned down by falling EMA 8 | 失误 +1.8% | +1.8% | 2026-08-19T00:00:31.353372+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↓ 看跌 | $BTC 4H now sell pressure into lower BB and loss of SMA 200 | 失误 +0.9% | +0.9% | 2026-08-18T00:00:13.224898+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。
回测记录
命中率: 24%
9 中 · 29 错 · n=38
从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 原话 | 相对口径(计入榜单) † | 绝对口径(对美元) † | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $BTC now underside daily EMA 8 (primary downtrend resistance) | 命中 -10.9% | -10.9% | 2026-08-18T23:30:10.966766+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $BTC bounces here or im wrong | 失误 -0.2% | -0.2% | 2026-08-18T23:30:10.216026+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $3450 first then $4000 | 失误 -3.7% | -8.1% | 2026-08-18T23:30:09.498961+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| DOT 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $DOT is a terrible chart and it was a bounce into resistance. | 命中 -4.8% | -12.2% | 2026-08-18T23:30:08.237528+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | eye on 90.5k as a throwback/stairstep target | 失误 +6.1% | +6.1% | 2026-08-18T23:30:06.373578+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $BTC 4H flirting with roll over after lower to upper BB mean reversion | 失误 -2.3% | -2.3% | 2026-08-18T23:00:15.564407+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Took long with SL 94.5k | 失误 -11.4% | -11.4% | 2026-08-18T23:00:12.957917+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $BTC 4H now advanced out of the bear rectangle and into the underside of lost support, Structure 106k-107.5k | 命中 -9.8% | -9.8% | 2026-08-18T23:00:11.522329+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $BTC 1H pinbar at HTF support. Now need some follow through | 失误 +1.5% | +1.5% | 2026-08-18T23:00:09.798397+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| AAVE 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $AAVE daily rejected at both underside of lost support and descending supply trend | 命中 -8.4% | -17.2% | 2026-08-18T22:30:08.695231+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $BTC nice push off 4H hammer. | 失误 +0.4% | +0.4% | 2026-08-18T22:00:13.046704+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | @j_davidson00 you can't skip over resistance at $230-$250 | 失误 +0.8% | +0.8% | 2026-08-18T21:30:17.447704+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Key demand or support is at the 110 K zone. | 命中 +7.2% | +7.2% | 2026-08-18T21:30:16.077663+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Key support on daily at 110k looms below and is likely to be tested | 失误 +5.3% | +5.3% | 2026-08-18T21:30:16.035108+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $BTC now pushing towards underside of lost support on daily | 失误 +3.2% | +3.2% | 2026-08-18T21:30:15.907439+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $BTC sentiment is trash and price hasn’t even tested primary uptrend support (weekly EMA 8) Chill | 失误 +3.0% | +3.0% | 2026-08-18T21:30:15.398632+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | everything’s still looked good and here we are higher | 失误 +0.3% | +0.3% | 2026-08-18T21:00:27.452936+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | Continued sideways high and tight HTF consolidation | 命中 +0.8% | +0.8% | 2026-08-18T21:00:13.184636+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $ETH flashing big red warning signs. | 失误 -2.0% | -5.1% | 2026-08-18T20:30:14.719108+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $SOL held on $140 range throwback and now pressing local resistance, working on a breakout | 失误 +2.4% | +2.9% | 2026-08-18T20:00:22.722016+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bad spot to short | 失误 -1.4% | -1.4% | 2026-08-18T19:30:07.859599+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $XRP testing HTF support at $2.00 zone | 命中 +8.2% | +15.7% | 2026-08-18T19:00:11.281570+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | price lost support at 90k, and then had an underside test/rejection. | 失误 +2.3% | +2.3% | 2026-08-18T19:00:10.962663+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | If we continue to break down ill congratulate you on a good call. For me I just follow support until it breaks, it not about my *personal* feelings or bias. | 失误 -1.6% | -1.6% | 2026-08-18T19:00:06.271781+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| AAVE 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $AAVE turned back at breakout level | 失误 -0.8% | -2.1% | 2026-08-17T13:00:08.668753+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Tower Top - Japanese Candlestick Pattern | 失误 +2.1% | +2.1% | 2026-08-17T12:30:10.287654+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| AAVE 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $AAVE came close to a breakout on daily but looks to have rejected at the neck-base | 失误 -2.6% | +0.7% | 2026-08-17T12:30:09.457595+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| UNI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $UNI trying to breakout | 失误 -8.7% | -9.4% | 2026-08-17T12:30:05.301529+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $BTC tags lows BB and range lows on 4H | 失误 -0.4% | -0.4% | 2026-08-17T12:00:10.717548+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | It’s retesting resistance, which should now be support | 失误 +2.0% | +2.0% | 2026-08-17T11:00:17.797586+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $SOL absolutely massive spot here as price pushes up into the underside of lost support, DMA 50 and upper BB on daily... Also has double negative bearish divergence with OBV, 2 new unsupported highs | 失误 +2.6% | +9.0% | 2026-08-17T10:00:12.335259+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | My target is bullish. Forecasting less of a drawdown than prior cycles | 命中 +6.3% | +6.3% | 2026-08-17T10:00:10.919782+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Plenty of world class TA guys like myself still don’t think bottom is in. | 失误 +4.1% | +4.1% | 2026-08-17T10:00:06.574188+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| UNI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $UNI massive bounce here on daily into underside of lost support/ confluence MA 50 | 失误 -7.0% | -11.2% | 2026-08-17T09:30:04.077116+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I was one of the lead bears, but I still called for that bounce. | 失误 -2.6% | -2.6% | 2026-08-17T07:00:35.400093+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Looks like a deep drop into support | 失误 +6.5% | +6.5% | 2026-08-17T05:30:24.700369+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Underside lost support | 失误 -2.6% | -2.6% | 2026-08-17T05:30:19.607412+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $BTC failed at 90.k and then failed at 4H higher low test, now pressing November lows | 命中 -25.7% | -25.7% | 2026-08-17T05:00:42.932291+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。
点位战绩
命中率: 22%
2 中 · 7 错 · n=9
按 price_target_v1 判定——他喊的那个点位有没有踩到。另一把尺,永不与上方方向命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 结果 | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | — | 失误 | 2026-09-01 | 研报 → |
| SOL | — | 失误 | 2026-08-30 | 研报 → |
| LINK | — | 失误 | 2026-08-29 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 命中 | 2026-08-28 | 研报 → |
| XRP | — | 命中 | 2026-08-28 | 研报 → |
| LINK | — | 失误 | 2026-08-27 | 研报 → |
| LINK | — | 失误 | 2026-08-23 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 失误 | 2026-08-19 | 研报 → |
| TRX | — | 失误 | 2026-08-19 | 研报 → |
回测记录
命中率: 42%
5 中 · 7 错 · n=12
从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 结果 | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE 回测 | — | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | — | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | < $400000 | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | <= $74000 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | — | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| DOT 回测 | — | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| AAVE 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| UNI 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
相关账号
@CryptoMichNL
40%
n=20 · 3 个共同币种
@CryptoTony__
31%
n=13 · 3 个共同币种
@CredibleCrypto
12%
n=8 · 3 个共同币种
@blknoiz06
67%
n=9 · 2 个共同币种
@AshCrypto
43%
n=7 · 2 个共同币种
与 CoinVerdict 对照
CoinVerdict 胜率(settle_v1 对 BTC): 64%
两个数字用的是同一把尺:kol_directional_v1 与 settle_v1 参数完全一致——7 天窗口、±3% 带宽、山寨对 BTC、BTC 自身对美元。所以上方的命中率与 CoinVerdict 的 64% 才可以并排摆。 · 两套口径有何不同 →
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行内胶囊 · data-cv-style="pill"
浅色卡 · data-cv-style="card"
暗色卡 · data-cv-style="dark"
大数字 · data-cv-style="stat"
媒体与创作者可引用 CoinVerdict 数据,需署名并回链。
数据源:VeraMind 结算账本 · 只记已验证结算,不记未到期叫单。 · 闲聊、复盘、观望不计入账本——只有明确喊单才进结算、才被计分。