@AshCrypto 的已结算叫单档案
第 1 / 共 14 位已入榜 KOL 已达可评级样本
✓ 来源巡检:0 不可用检出 · 覆盖 5/5 · 最近巡检 2026-08-31
50%
命中率 · 3 中 · 3 错 · n=6
命中平均幅度(绝对口径,对美元) ±15.8%
(可计算样本 3/3)
记分规则:kol_directional_v1 —— 看规则全文 →
95% 置信区间 [18.8% – 81.2%] · Wilson 95% 区间——真实胜率大致落在这个范围。
最近结算 2026-08-31(0 天前)
样本不足——区间较宽,数字还会变动。
BTC, ETH, SOL
三句话看懂
@AshCrypto 最近在说什么宏观叙事多头
- 频繁将市场走势归因于机构动向，如ETF资金流向和财政部注入流动性，视其为价格主推力。 原话 ↗
- 始终围绕待通过的“清晰法案”叙事，以此作为预测牛市的宏观依据。 原话 ↗
- 高度重视技术指标，特别是反复强调200日均线是判断趋势反转的关键分界线。 原话 ↗
- 常通过分享加密货币与股市表现对比的落差，来表达并验证散户投资者的挫败感。 原话 ↗
AI 提炼 —— 这是我们对他最近 30 天 200 条公开发言的解读,不是他本人的话。每句都挂原文,欢迎对着核。
如果你跟了
跟他做,还是自己拿 BTC?
+$212跟他每一条
+$24什么都不做拿 BTC
+$188差额
实时 6 条 · 补算 49 条 —— 永不合并成一个数字。
这页金额由回测撑起 —— 把同一套规则套到历史言论上得出的假设业绩(hypothetical performance),不是实时跟单战绩。实时记录:6 / 55 条。
每条喊单当作独立投入 $100,7 天后平仓 —— 非滚仓,不含费用与滑点。 怎么算的 →
最佳喊单(绝对幅度对美元,可计算样本内)
BTC
+21.3%
结算于 2026-08-26T00:00:06.667583+00:00
最早可计算命中记录:2026-08-21T00:00:06.665493+00:00 · 可计算样本 3/3
命中率走势
分维度战绩
按币种
BTC: 67%
n=3 · 样本少
ETH: 0%
n=2 · 样本少
SOL: 100%
n=1 · 样本少
按喊单
—: 50%
n=6 · 样本少
按时间窗
30d: 50%
n=6 · 样本少
90d: 50%
n=6 · 样本少
全部: 50%
n=6 · 样本少
方向战绩
| 币种 | 叫单 | 原话 | 相对口径(计入榜单) † | 绝对口径(对美元) † | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | ↑ 看涨 | US is considering buying large amounts of BTC and altcoins. | 失误 -1.8% | -1.9% | 2026-08-31T00:00:05.309349+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | US is considering buying large amounts of BTC and altcoins. | 失误 -0.1% | -0.1% | 2026-08-31T00:00:03.873536+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL | ↑ 看涨 | Bullish 🚀 | 命中 +11.8% | +11.1% | 2026-08-29T00:00:06.836606+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | BULLISH: Whales have bought $2.64 BILLION worth of $BTC in last 2 months. Big money is buying the dip. | 命中 +21.3% | +21.3% | 2026-08-26T00:00:06.667583+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | Are you buying in 2026? | 命中 +15.0% | +15.0% | 2026-08-21T00:00:06.665493+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH | ↑ 看涨 | Ethereum will hit $15,000. | 失误 +0.1% | +1.9% | 2026-08-19T00:00:32.268416+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。
回测记录
命中率: 30%
15 中 · 35 错 · n=50
从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 原话 | 相对口径(计入榜单) † | 绝对口径(对美元) † | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Historically, whenever price reaches this key macro level, it has marked a bottom. | 失误 +2.5% | +2.5% | 2026-08-18T23:30:04.909314+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Strong bounce back and moving higher. | 失误 -9.1% | -14.8% | 2026-08-18T23:00:33.208866+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Resistance will break in Q4 | 失误 -3.5% | -3.5% | 2026-08-18T22:30:17.714984+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Top is not in and BTC parabolic phase hasn’t even started yet. | 命中 +4.2% | +4.2% | 2026-08-18T22:30:15.898195+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Fund flows from gold and silver are likely to shift into Bitcoin and Ethereum soon. | 失误 -4.2% | -4.2% | 2026-08-18T22:30:15.069243+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $BTC HAS FLIPPED ITS MULTI-CYCLE RESISTANCE INTO SUPPORT. | 失误 -9.6% | -9.6% | 2026-08-18T22:30:08.158076+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | We should bounce from here | 失误 +1.8% | +1.8% | 2026-08-18T22:00:27.746856+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin parabolic pump is coming in Q4. | 失误 +0.4% | +0.4% | 2026-08-18T22:00:13.068496+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | You are seriously not bullish enough | 命中 +15.5% | +16.3% | 2026-08-18T21:30:16.834404+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | You are seriously not bullish enough | 失误 +0.7% | +0.7% | 2026-08-18T21:30:16.803156+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | WHALES ARE HEAVILY ACCUMULATING BELOW THE MONTHLY KEY RESISTANCE | 命中 +20.7% | +27.1% | 2026-08-18T21:30:16.012783+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | ALL EYES ON THE $4,000 TARGET 🚀 | 命中 +21.6% | +22.0% | 2026-08-18T21:00:28.632172+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | ETH weekly breakout is beautiful All eyes on the $2,500 target | 命中 +14.9% | +15.5% | 2026-08-18T20:00:22.814468+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | TREND = BULLISH , TARGET = $109K | 命中 +8.5% | +8.5% | 2026-08-18T19:00:20.177249+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | NEXT MAIN TARGET IS $2,400 | 命中 +26.4% | +37.1% | 2026-08-18T19:00:20.155442+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | ALL EYES ON THE $2,000 TARGET | 命中 +12.2% | +20.1% | 2026-08-18T19:00:17.616989+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | BOOOOM !!! BITCOIN CLOSED ABOVE $93,000 AND BROKE ALL THE MAJOR RESISTANCE LEVELS IN A SINGLE CANDLE. | 失误 +0.5% | +0.5% | 2026-08-18T18:30:04.209230+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin bounce with double bottom and this indicates that bitcoin is ready to check major resistance at $87,000. | 命中 +6.7% | +6.7% | 2026-08-18T17:00:22.370947+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin macro chart remains bullish | 命中 +4.2% | +4.2% | 2026-08-18T17:00:13.790633+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bullish for SOL holders. | 失误 +2.1% | -0.9% | 2026-08-17T13:00:27.306033+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | You are not bullish enough on crypto. | 失误 -2.9% | -2.9% | 2026-08-17T13:00:13.184664+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin is breaking out. | 失误 -1.3% | -1.3% | 2026-08-17T13:00:07.708339+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | The Bitcoin catch-up rally is going to be insane. | 失误 -0.8% | -0.8% | 2026-08-17T13:00:03.390205+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BNB 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $BNB just broke out of its downtrend for the first time in 45 days. Bullish | 失误 +0.8% | +0.1% | 2026-08-17T12:30:05.901163+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | ETH is moving towards $1,950 | 失误 -0.8% | -3.5% | 2026-08-17T12:00:10.412077+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin catch up rally will be insane. | 失误 -3.2% | -3.2% | 2026-08-17T11:30:10.531057+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bullish sign for alts. | 失误 +2.1% | -1.2% | 2026-08-17T11:30:09.894781+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bullish for XRP holders. | 失误 -2.7% | -6.5% | 2026-08-17T11:30:08.145260+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bullish 🚀 | 失误 +2.0% | +2.0% | 2026-08-17T11:00:17.776394+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | You are not Bullish enough. | 失误 +2.1% | +2.1% | 2026-08-17T11:00:15.893386+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Giga Bullish for both $SOL and $ETH. | 失误 -2.0% | +0.3% | 2026-08-17T11:00:13.790916+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Giga Bullish for both $SOL and $ETH. | 失误 -0.3% | +2.0% | 2026-08-17T11:00:11.977542+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | ETH/BTC is breaking out from an 11-month downtrend on the weekly. | 失误 +2.1% | +3.6% | 2026-08-17T11:00:07.126485+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | ETH is pumping hard against Bitcoin. | 失误 +2.6% | +4.2% | 2026-08-17T11:00:06.541382+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Let’s see if we hold and get the historical summer pump in July-August. | 失误 +0.9% | +0.9% | 2026-08-17T10:30:14.474520+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | ETH has broken $1,800 level. | 失误 +1.4% | -1.3% | 2026-08-17T10:30:09.971219+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | ETH is moving towards $1,800. | 失误 -0.7% | +0.4% | 2026-08-17T10:30:07.635288+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin just hit $63,000. | 失误 +1.1% | +1.1% | 2026-08-17T10:30:07.607374+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | He will definitely pump his bags. | 命中 +4.3% | +12.7% | 2026-08-17T10:00:14.834425+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | He will definitely pump his bags. | 命中 +8.1% | +8.1% | 2026-08-17T10:00:14.803555+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | This means Strategy can now sell small amounts of Bitcoin to cover its $1.5 billion in yearly dividend payments, a shift from Saylor’s long standing “never sell” stance. | 失误 +6.3% | +6.3% | 2026-08-17T10:00:12.122668+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Projects like $LINK , $HYPE and $SOL that are consistently leading in tokenized equities and payment rails while creating value will be the biggest winners. | 命中 +10.3% | +16.0% | 2026-08-17T10:00:08.906665+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| LINK 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Projects like $LINK , $HYPE and $SOL that are consistently leading in tokenized equities and payment rails while creating value will be the biggest winners. | 命中 +4.3% | +9.7% | 2026-08-17T10:00:07.430820+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| USDC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bullish for the growth of stablecoins like USDT and USDC, which can now thrive without direct competition from the Fed. | 失误 +1.7% | -0.1% | 2026-08-17T09:30:13.789743+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | And bitcoin is still down -50% from its October peak, which arguably UNDERVALUED right now. | 失误 -5.4% | -5.4% | 2026-08-17T09:30:07.185468+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Looking at the macro, several things are aligned together, which has historically been bullish for crypto. | 命中 +3.2% | +3.2% | 2026-08-17T07:00:20.824489+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bulls are getting in control. | 失误 -3.1% | -3.1% | 2026-08-17T07:00:02.832401+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | BTC is still trading in a sideways range and will continue to move based on positive and negative media headlines. | 失误 +4.3% | +4.3% | 2026-08-17T06:30:06.767041+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | The next 7–10 days after FOMC have historically been weak for Bitcoin. | 失误 +0.1% | +0.1% | 2026-08-17T06:00:12.666853+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | ETH has a strong support at $0 | 失误 +1.8% | -0.7% | 2026-08-17T05:30:11.567343+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。
点位战绩
命中率: 50%
3 中 · 3 错 · n=6
按 price_target_v1 判定——他喊的那个点位有没有踩到。另一把尺,永不与上方方向命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 结果 | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | — | 失误 | 2026-08-31 | 研报 → |
| ETH | — | 失误 | 2026-08-31 | 研报 → |
| SOL | — | 命中 | 2026-08-29 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 命中 | 2026-08-26 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 命中 | 2026-08-21 | 研报 → |
| ETH | — | 失误 | 2026-08-19 | 研报 → |
回测记录
命中率: 18%
3 中 · 14 错 · n=17
从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 结果 | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $200000 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $125000 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $180000 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | > $109000 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | >= $5000 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | <= $6000 | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | > $10000 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | >= $4000 | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BNB 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| LINK 回测 | — | 命中 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | > $82000 | 失误 | 2026-08-16 | 研报 → |
相关账号
@CryptoMichNL
42%
n=19 · 3 个共同币种
@CryptoTony__
31%
n=13 · 3 个共同币种
@blknoiz06
67%
n=9 · 3 个共同币种
@CredibleCrypto
12%
n=8 · 3 个共同币种
@BigCheds
30%
n=10 · 2 个共同币种
与 CoinVerdict 对照
CoinVerdict 胜率(settle_v1 对 BTC): 64%
两个数字用的是同一把尺:kol_directional_v1 与 settle_v1 参数完全一致——7 天窗口、±3% 带宽、山寨对 BTC、BTC 自身对美元。所以上方的命中率与 CoinVerdict 的 64% 才可以并排摆。 · 两套口径有何不同 →
嵌入这张战绩卡
把这段代码粘到你的站点。新的结算产生后,徽章会自动更新。 · 分享图卡(发 X 用 PNG)
实时预览 —— 真实数据,与你站点加载的是同一个脚本。
行内胶囊 · data-cv-style="pill"
浅色卡 · data-cv-style="card"
暗色卡 · data-cv-style="dark"
大数字 · data-cv-style="stat"
媒体与创作者可引用 CoinVerdict 数据,需署名并回链。
数据源:VeraMind 结算账本 · 只记已验证结算,不记未到期叫单。 · 闲聊、复盘、观望不计入账本——只有明确喊单才进结算、才被计分。