@CryptoMichNL 的已结算叫单档案
第 12 / 共 14 位已入榜 KOL 已达可评级样本
✓ 来源巡检:0 不可用检出 · 覆盖 42/42 · 最近巡检 2026-09-07
35%
命中率 · 8 中 · 15 错 · n=23
命中平均幅度(绝对口径,对美元) ±17.4%
(可计算样本 8/8)
记分规则:kol_directional_v1 —— 看规则全文 →
95% 置信区间 [18.8% – 55.1%] · Wilson 95% 区间——真实胜率大致落在这个范围。
最近结算 2026-09-02(5 天前)
样本不足——区间较宽,数字还会变动。
ARB, BTC, ETH, LINK, SOL, SUI
三句话看懂
@CryptoMichNL 最近在说什么牛市周期策略家
- 指出比特币仍较历史最高点低40%，认为当前仅是大牛周期的起步阶段，建议保持耐心。 原话 ↗
- 反复建议在山寨币下跌时买入，认为它们能在极短时间内挽回长达数月的账面亏损。 原话 ↗
- 观察到山寨币相比比特币表现低迷，预测一旦比特币盘整，流动性就会轮动至山寨币市场。 原话 ↗
- 频繁使用特定市场逻辑：比特币暴涨导致用户抛售山寨币追涨，随后比特币停滞，山寨币迎来爆发。 原话 ↗
AI 提炼 —— 这是我们对他最近 30 天 183 条公开发言的解读,不是他本人的话。每句都挂原文,欢迎对着核。
如果你跟了
跟他做,还是自己拿 BTC?
+$70跟他每一条
+$33什么都不做拿 BTC
+$37差额
实时 22 条 · 补算 132 条 —— 永不合并成一个数字。
这页金额由回测撑起 —— 把同一套规则套到历史言论上得出的假设业绩(hypothetical performance),不是实时跟单战绩。实时记录:22 / 154 条。
每条喊单当作独立投入 $100,7 天后平仓 —— 非滚仓,不含费用与滑点。 怎么算的 →
最佳喊单(绝对幅度对美元,可计算样本内)
ETH
+23.4%
结算于 2026-08-21T00:00:07.517648+00:00
最早可计算命中记录:2026-08-20T00:00:08.374314+00:00 · 可计算样本 8/8
命中率走势
分维度战绩
按币种
BTC: 44%
n=9 · 样本少
LINK: 20%
n=5 · 样本少
SOL: 67%
n=3 · 样本少
SUI: 0%
n=3 · 样本少
ETH: 50%
n=2 · 样本少
ARB: 0%
n=1 · 样本少
按喊单
—: 35%
n=23
按时间窗
30d: 35%
n=23
90d: 35%
n=23
全部: 35%
n=23
方向战绩
| 币种 | 叫单 | 原话 | 相对口径(计入榜单) † | 绝对口径(对美元) † | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LINK | ↑ 看涨 | It makes me even more bullish on $LINK. | 失误 +0.9% | -0.5% | 2026-09-02T00:00:07.337597+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH | ↑ 看涨 | $ETH is an example, we're seeing a case where it's already going to hit a higher timeframe support level. This one should be next. | 失误 +0.4% | -1.0% | 2026-09-02T00:00:06.830428+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | I don't think we'll stall before that level and are going to continue finding support above $73,000 after that. | 失误 -1.4% | -1.4% | 2026-09-02T00:00:06.194986+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI | ↑ 看涨 | there's still a lot of momentum to come on this one in next legs. | 失误 -8.6% | -9.1% | 2026-09-01T00:00:16.112776+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↓ 看跌 | I'm looking for a leg lower | 失误 +1.5% | +1.5% | 2026-08-30T00:00:08.222971+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ARB | ↑ 看涨 | That, in itself, is already a signal #Altcoins will do a 100-200% move from here, probably significantly more. | 失误 -10.0% | -10.6% | 2026-08-29T00:00:09.732028+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | It's broken out of the range, and it's uptrending, meaning: - Lower timeframe retraces are the ones to be looking for in terms of getting longs. | 命中 +9.9% | +9.9% | 2026-08-28T00:00:09.366622+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| LINK | ↑ 看涨 | Next target: $14. | 失误 +1.4% | +11.5% | 2026-08-28T00:00:06.920025+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI | ↑ 看涨 | I've said it a few times, I think that $SUI is an ideal spot to be accumulated. | 失误 -4.6% | +8.7% | 2026-08-27T00:00:07.887196+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | my main targets from here are $68,000 and $73,000. | 命中 +14.0% | +14.0% | 2026-08-27T00:00:06.722229+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL | ↑ 看涨 | $SOL remains to be ready for a strong breakout upwards. | 命中 +4.9% | +19.5% | 2026-08-27T00:00:06.675857+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| LINK | ↑ 看涨 | on higher timeframes, it's starting the bull market! | 失误 -3.4% | +10.1% | 2026-08-27T00:00:06.594671+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | #Bitcoin moves upwards in a violent manner. | 命中 +22.4% | +22.4% | 2026-08-25T00:00:06.245267+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| LINK | ↑ 看涨 | Most likely we'll see a rally higher on $LINK | 失误 -0.4% | +21.9% | 2026-08-25T00:00:06.164766+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | → 看平 | Other than that, range-bound, low volatility, no reason to overtrade and just accumulate for multi-year holding. | 失误 +22.2% | +22.2% | 2026-08-23T00:00:04.568340+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | Great signs for #Bitcoin. | 命中 +15.0% | +15.0% | 2026-08-21T00:00:07.569579+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH | ↑ 看涨 | ...it looks to me as if we're going to continue moving upwards with this structure. | 命中 +7.3% | +23.4% | 2026-08-21T00:00:07.517648+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| LINK | ↑ 看涨 | This is not stopping soon, the train has just started. | 命中 +11.4% | +21.7% | 2026-08-20T00:00:08.924610+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL | ↑ 看涨 | I assume that we're done with the correction. | 命中 +3.4% | +12.9% | 2026-08-20T00:00:08.374314+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL | ↑ 看涨 | I think it's important to hold the $73.5-74 area for support. If that happens, the targets to $120 remain intact. | 失误 -0.8% | +1.0% | 2026-08-19T00:00:32.367145+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | it's going to be really hard to make #Bitcoin drop another 40%. | 失误 +1.8% | +1.8% | 2026-08-19T00:00:32.240101+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI | ↑ 看涨 | Meaning, it's just a matter of time until price picks up and $SUI is back above $1. | 失误 -7.6% | -6.0% | 2026-08-19T00:00:31.331970+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | Right now, the same signal is evident in the markets, indicating that traders want to flip long despite the net-negative basis trade strategy. Bullish! | 失误 +0.9% | +0.9% | 2026-08-18T00:00:13.089491+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。
回测记录
命中率: 20%
26 中 · 107 错 · n=133
从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 原话 | 相对口径(计入榜单) † | 绝对口径(对美元) † | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I think we'll be seeing another run upwards | 失误 -1.6% | -4.8% | 2026-08-18T21:30:14.725128+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | #Bitcoin ... continuing to fall down to close the CME gap. | 失误 -2.5% | -2.5% | 2026-08-18T21:30:14.333366+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | One more dip coming during the weekend? | 命中 -3.7% | -3.7% | 2026-08-18T21:30:10.667692+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | I think we'll have a correction first to take liquidity on the long side. | 失误 +0.4% | +1.0% | 2026-08-18T21:30:07.667361+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Expecting to see a slight pullback before we'll see $3,000. | 命中 +14.7% | +17.8% | 2026-08-18T21:00:26.579474+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I'm sure, this is a good accumulation area for $SUI. | 命中 +20.3% | +28.3% | 2026-08-18T21:00:25.440528+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Great signs, as SUI is likely to break the downtrend in the coming weeks and start a new upwards trend. | 失误 +1.9% | +2.9% | 2026-08-18T21:00:14.261922+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $SUI bounced from a very strong support zone and I think we'll start to see a new run from here. | 失误 +2.6% | +3.5% | 2026-08-18T21:00:10.436462+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | #Bitcoin has a trendswitch. It's uptrending now, after we've had a massive liquidation crash taking place to sub $100K. | 失误 -0.4% | -0.4% | 2026-08-18T20:30:35.775034+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $ETH is building up for the next big breakout. | 失误 -2.0% | -5.1% | 2026-08-18T20:30:14.749099+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| LINK 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I assume we'll start to see continuation in the upcoming weeks. | 失误 -4.4% | -2.1% | 2026-08-18T20:00:36.430003+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Upwards trend. | 命中 +26.4% | +37.1% | 2026-08-18T19:00:20.126310+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | This is just an ideal build-up before the next leg upwards. | 命中 +9.3% | +9.3% | 2026-08-18T19:00:19.591860+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $SUI is likely running towards a new ATH in the coming quarter. | 命中 +17.6% | +18.2% | 2026-08-18T18:30:04.486837+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | I think we'll be testing the lows for #Bitcoin as it just rejected the first resistance zone. | 失误 +6.2% | +6.2% | 2026-08-18T17:00:08.586204+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| UNI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Multiple altcoins are doing this already: $AAVE, $UNI, $PUMP. | 失误 -15.3% | -17.9% | 2026-08-17T13:00:28.476600+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $SOL holds an important level of support, indicating that it's made a higher low and is strengthening for the next push upwards to $120. | 失误 +2.1% | -0.9% | 2026-08-17T13:00:26.590559+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Good area to long $SUI. | 失误 +0.8% | -2.1% | 2026-08-17T13:00:26.285436+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | That's why I'm accumulating $SUI in this area. | 命中 +4.6% | +1.6% | 2026-08-17T13:00:13.047610+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | This is the time to accumulate, not when things are 'lower'. | 失误 -2.9% | -2.9% | 2026-08-17T13:00:12.968539+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | The most obvious case would be to see a strong breakout on the markets in the Summer, with $ETH leading the pack. | 失误 +1.3% | -1.7% | 2026-08-17T13:00:12.943613+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | #Bitcoin is on edge to be outperforming the index over the coming years. | 失误 -1.3% | -1.3% | 2026-08-17T13:00:08.782413+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | However, given that we're making higher timeframe bullish divergences I much rather bet on the outcome that the markets will break upwards rather than downwards. | 失误 +0.4% | -0.9% | 2026-08-17T13:00:08.697123+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| UNI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $AAVE and $UNI followed it. | 失误 +0.2% | +0.9% | 2026-08-17T12:30:12.733982+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| AAVE 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $AAVE and $UNI followed it. | 失误 -4.0% | -3.3% | 2026-08-17T12:30:12.163523+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $ETH started it. | 失误 -0.0% | +0.7% | 2026-08-17T12:30:11.884800+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| LINK 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Massive bullish divergence on $LINK remains to be active and it's only a matter of time until this plays out. | 失误 -4.4% | -2.3% | 2026-08-17T12:30:10.245902+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | As a matter of fact, Bitcoin and Ethereum can still yield you a tremendous return from here anyways. | 失误 +0.5% | +3.9% | 2026-08-17T12:30:08.615051+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | holding above $60K confirms a higher low and therefore it confirms the bullish divergence. | 命中 +3.4% | +3.4% | 2026-08-17T12:30:08.561692+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I'm accumulating $SUI here, and I think it's not a bad area to go for. | 失误 -4.5% | -1.5% | 2026-08-17T12:30:07.309210+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | #Bitcoin will outperform to the same regions | 失误 -0.7% | -0.7% | 2026-08-17T12:30:05.323474+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | For now, I expect to see higher prices on Ethereum. | 失误 -0.0% | -0.7% | 2026-08-17T12:30:03.924223+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Classic dump taking place pre-FOMC, like it always happens. | 失误 +1.1% | +1.1% | 2026-08-17T12:00:13.504075+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | It's about time to see a strong breakout on #Bitcoin. | 失误 +0.3% | +0.3% | 2026-08-17T12:00:12.478350+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| AAVE 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | just buy the dip and trade the long side of this asset. | 失误 -5.4% | -5.7% | 2026-08-17T12:00:11.281696+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I'm betting most on the $ETH ecosystem, and I think that #Altcoin will outperform #Bitcoin. | 失误 -0.8% | -3.5% | 2026-08-17T12:00:10.362783+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| AAVE 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $AAVE is looking primed for a strong breakout upwards. | 失误 +2.7% | +0.7% | 2026-08-17T12:00:06.113774+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | This time won't be different. | 失误 -2.0% | -2.0% | 2026-08-17T12:00:04.844488+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $ETH is working on towards a continuation of the trend. | 失误 +2.1% | +0.1% | 2026-08-17T12:00:04.815406+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Does that change anything on the perspectives? No, not really. The resilience on the markets is quite strong. | 失误 -0.5% | -0.5% | 2026-08-17T11:30:13.472569+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I'm expecting to see $2,500 from here | 失误 +2.6% | +2.1% | 2026-08-17T11:30:12.216432+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | It's a matter of time before it tests the other side of the range. | 失误 +2.1% | -1.2% | 2026-08-17T11:30:09.518550+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | The trend remains clear, we're expecting to see a lot of upside further for the coming period on the markets. | 失误 -3.2% | -3.2% | 2026-08-17T11:30:09.488885+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Matter of time until $ETH is back above $2,000+. | 命中 +3.7% | -0.4% | 2026-08-17T11:30:07.598898+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $SOL, $AAVE, $ETH are all granting good opportunities and look ready for a new leg upwards. | 失误 -2.4% | -4.7% | 2026-08-17T11:30:06.464841+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| AAVE 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Similarly, this is the area that $AAVE is in a buy the dip region against Bitcoin. It has flipped the daily MA's for support and then you'd want to accumulate in these regions. | 命中 +11.6% | +9.1% | 2026-08-17T11:30:06.133719+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Given that it has been breaking out of a one-year downtrend, I'm looking to be buying in these ranges and expecting to see a new leg upwards. | 失误 -0.5% | +0.5% | 2026-08-17T11:30:04.315247+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ARB 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $ARB is looking eager for continuation on the markets. | 失误 -7.5% | -6.5% | 2026-08-17T11:30:03.801215+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Most of those people will then be buying back at $90,000 per #Bitcoin. | 失误 -0.7% | -0.7% | 2026-08-17T11:30:02.785611+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Protocols like $SUI, $NEAR, $ARB, $AAVE, all should be valued significantly higher | 失误 -3.7% | -4.3% | 2026-08-17T11:00:20.676138+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ARB 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Protocols like $SUI, $NEAR, $ARB, $AAVE, all should be valued significantly higher | 失误 -6.0% | -6.7% | 2026-08-17T11:00:19.877400+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ARB 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $ARB is looking eager for continuation on the markets. | 失误 -8.6% | -8.3% | 2026-08-17T11:00:18.969787+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $ETH is ready for another leg upwards, and is just having a fairly normal correction. | 失误 +0.7% | +1.1% | 2026-08-17T11:00:18.451365+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | accumulate more #Bitcoin and strong #Altcoins. | 失误 +0.3% | +0.3% | 2026-08-17T11:00:18.134525+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | It's looking great for upside momentum from here, even despite the recent correction. | 失误 +2.0% | +2.0% | 2026-08-17T11:00:17.427238+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| AAVE 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | That would indicate that we're going to see a lot more strength going forward, and it's just a matter of time until this breaks $100. | 失误 -5.5% | -3.3% | 2026-08-17T11:00:12.850405+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I would assume we're going to see a lot more strength, as it's breaking above higher-timeframe MAs, which indicates we're in an uptrend. | 失误 -0.3% | +2.0% | 2026-08-17T11:00:11.374633+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin has held $58K for six months now, through the Iran conflict, the STRC de-peg, the Saylor drama, inflation fears, and the SpaceX IPO draining liquidity. Still no new cycle low. | 命中 +4.7% | +4.7% | 2026-08-17T11:00:10.224828+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| AVAX 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I don't think we'll see $AVAX at these prices for very long. | 失误 -2.6% | +2.0% | 2026-08-17T11:00:09.639550+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I expect to see this one continue to break upwards and to run all the way towards $2,400+ to reverse the trend. | 失误 +2.1% | +3.6% | 2026-08-17T11:00:07.946505+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ARB 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I'm expecting to see a lot more upside in the coming period. | 失误 -5.8% | -4.4% | 2026-08-17T11:00:07.888956+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | It's actually a great opportunity to be allocating into $MSTR, $BTC. | 失误 +1.5% | +1.5% | 2026-08-17T11:00:06.839781+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | We're currently at the bottom in 2015 and are about to see the 'https://t.co/rFbY3kvwqF' type of run and bubble on #Crypto. | 失误 +1.6% | +1.6% | 2026-08-17T11:00:05.288800+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | ...especially after Bitcoin breaks north of $65,000. | 失误 -0.4% | -0.4% | 2026-08-17T10:30:15.616593+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ARB 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I would expect to see a lot more momentum coming into the price action coming weeks. | 失误 +0.8% | +1.7% | 2026-08-17T10:30:15.286140+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| AAVE 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I don't think we're getting a deep correction at all, it looks likely that we're actually going to see a strong surge going forward. | 失误 -1.1% | -0.1% | 2026-08-17T10:30:14.987562+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Overall; it's a matter of time until $SOL regains the $100+ levels. | 失误 -4.5% | -0.7% | 2026-08-17T10:30:13.514484+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | It's resilient, and it's in an uptrend for the first time in over a year. | 命中 +5.8% | +10.0% | 2026-08-17T10:30:13.486738+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | There's still no problem on $BTC. | 命中 +4.0% | +4.0% | 2026-08-17T10:30:13.458794+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I don't really know what should be pushing back the price of Bitcoin at this stage. Looking forward to seeing it trend to $68,000. | 失误 +2.7% | +2.7% | 2026-08-17T10:30:10.855555+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I do think that we'll continue to see strength happening here. | 失误 -5.9% | -3.4% | 2026-08-17T10:30:10.810132+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Now they have been accumulating those, and they used you as exit liquidity; they'll be looking to quickly pump the markets. | 失误 -2.7% | -2.7% | 2026-08-17T10:30:09.919804+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I do think there's more upside to come in the coming period rather than another sweep lower. | 失误 +1.4% | -1.3% | 2026-08-17T10:30:09.835587+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Memecoins on $SOL are back again, so risk capital is eager to find a place there for more upside. | 失误 -7.1% | -6.1% | 2026-08-17T10:30:08.478210+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I would assume that we're looking at a potential rally to $1.10 or $1.40 from here. | 失误 -5.3% | -4.3% | 2026-08-17T10:30:08.205726+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $ETH vs. BTC is breaking out upwards and building a higher low, which means that we're back in an uptrend. | 失误 -0.7% | +0.4% | 2026-08-17T10:30:07.585650+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | The coming weeks are likely to provide a lot of upside as it returns to fair value. | 失误 -6.3% | -3.9% | 2026-08-17T10:30:07.062466+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I have a hard time not becoming bullish with these data points. | 失误 -0.3% | +2.2% | 2026-08-17T10:30:06.382174+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ARB 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | there's a clear indication that the markets are going to reverse in the sense that $ARB is looking strong with this bullish divergence. | 命中 +10.2% | +13.2% | 2026-08-17T10:30:04.419241+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I'm expecting this to keep getting stronger. | 失误 +2.7% | +2.7% | 2026-08-17T10:30:03.895869+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | That means -> buy the dip territory on this one. I do expect to see a strong continuation here | 失误 -5.9% | -3.3% | 2026-08-17T10:30:03.842661+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | we're at the forefront of the largest final bull run in #Crypto | 命中 +8.1% | +8.1% | 2026-08-17T10:00:14.983075+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | It's about time before SUI follows through. | 失误 -2.5% | +5.4% | 2026-08-17T10:00:14.755754+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | The core thesis is that you won't make most of the money at the tail end of the cycle. It's made during these times, the hard times, when nobody believes whether #Crypto has a purpose or not. | 命中 +4.3% | +12.7% | 2026-08-17T10:00:14.202344+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I do think that we'll see a lot more momentum coming in from that one in the coming period | 失误 +2.6% | +9.0% | 2026-08-17T10:00:12.198082+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I think that we'll see money flow out of the AI sector and that this liquidity will seek for other markets to invest in --> #Bitcoin and crypto. | 命中 +6.8% | +6.8% | 2026-08-17T10:00:10.238286+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I don't think the markets are eager to go down more and I doubt we'll see these levels ($AAVE and other protocols are already taking of). | 命中 +7.5% | +13.1% | 2026-08-17T10:00:08.511071+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Everyone is short anyways, nobody is expecting a bounce, so if it happens, it can go fast. | 命中 +4.1% | +4.1% | 2026-08-17T10:00:06.552193+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Overall, I do expect to see a lot more momentum still on $BTC. | 失误 -6.6% | -6.6% | 2026-08-17T09:30:09.526434+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| UNI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $UNI is now breaking out massively as well. | 失误 -4.2% | -9.3% | 2026-08-17T09:30:06.188442+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| LINK 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Slowly, but surely, $LINK is growing and growing. | 失误 -3.1% | -8.2% | 2026-08-17T09:30:05.120332+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | This time, it flashed the exact same signal indicating a bullish divergence on the 3-Day Timeframe. | 失误 -3.5% | -3.5% | 2026-08-17T09:00:28.563946+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Ethereum is up a lot versus Bitcoin, which is a bullish take on the markets. | 失误 -4.7% | -11.8% | 2026-08-17T08:30:06.638122+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I'm considering adding $SUI into my #Altcoin portfolio. | 失误 -6.5% | -22.3% | 2026-08-17T08:30:03.757892+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | #Bitcoin continues to stagnate within this range. | 失误 -13.8% | -13.8% | 2026-08-17T08:00:09.743989+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | if oil prices do correct, that's positive for all markets. | 失误 -1.2% | -1.2% | 2026-08-17T08:00:03.635893+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | That's the actual reason why you should be looking into Bitcoin rather than other assets... There are plenty of other reasons to expect new highs rather than new lows. | 失误 -1.8% | -1.8% | 2026-08-17T07:30:08.944142+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| OP 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | This bounce upwards isn't over. | 失误 -19.3% | -20.4% | 2026-08-17T07:30:03.817811+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | It's a matter of when this breaks upwards and not if, in my opinion. | 失误 -2.9% | +4.3% | 2026-08-17T07:00:27.740091+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Beautiful upwards grind looking for a clear breakout above 2,070€. | 失误 -1.9% | -2.0% | 2026-08-17T07:00:20.495643+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $ETH is about to follow #Bitcoin in the path upwards. | 失误 -0.1% | -0.1% | 2026-08-17T07:00:20.210026+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | markets are eagerly going up for #Bitcoin. | 失误 -3.1% | -3.1% | 2026-08-17T06:30:12.587429+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | #Bitcoin remains looking for higher levels. | 命中 +5.6% | +5.6% | 2026-08-17T06:30:06.495578+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | #Bitcoin breaks through the crucial $71K level and builds a bullish structure. | 命中 +5.3% | +5.3% | 2026-08-17T06:30:05.315114+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | especially since $ETH has been showing more momentum already. | 命中 +4.0% | +12.4% | 2026-08-17T06:30:04.113824+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | This looks to me as if we're going to test lower on the markets to see whether there's some support on #Bitcoin. | 失误 +0.7% | +0.7% | 2026-08-17T05:30:21.972680+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | #Bitcoin is bouncing up. | 失误 -1.2% | -1.2% | 2026-08-17T05:30:19.337864+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Anyways, I think that $ETH will significantly outperform Bitcoin going forward and that I'm happy to be accumulating more Ethereum. | 失误 -0.3% | -9.4% | 2026-08-17T05:30:07.857205+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | I don't think the latter is the most likely, and the first still implies that we're in an $ETH market where a higher low signals that a new uptrend is on the horizon later in the year. | 失误 +0.7% | -7.9% | 2026-08-17T05:30:06.578562+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Matter of time until the markets pick up momentum. | 失误 -12.9% | -35.3% | 2026-08-17T05:00:43.500592+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| OP 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | The trend is now up. | 失误 -4.8% | -12.1% | 2026-08-17T05:00:37.134144+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I would assume we'll see a continuation of the uptrend, given the fact that there's a constant amount of inflow into the ETF. | 失误 -0.9% | +0.9% | 2026-08-17T05:00:32.169391+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Better part; $ETH is outperforming #Bitcoin. | 失误 -1.9% | -1.2% | 2026-08-17T05:00:30.559936+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I would assume that this is going to break to the upside | 失误 -0.8% | -2.4% | 2026-08-17T05:00:10.565306+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I still think that $ETH is going to be more interesting than Bitcoin, especially when the momentum continues to be up. | 失误 -5.5% | -12.6% | 2026-08-17T04:30:24.173306+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | The markets are still making higher lows, which clearly presents a case of upwards trending markets on the lower timeframes. | 失误 -7.6% | -7.6% | 2026-08-17T04:30:23.865562+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $ETH to outperform $BTC. | 失误 -2.3% | -15.0% | 2026-08-17T04:30:06.492432+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ARB 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I think that this is a great opportunity to accumulate this position, just before it does a 200% against $BTC. | 失误 -12.4% | -21.2% | 2026-08-17T04:30:05.656039+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Actually a great area to be adding $ETH into the portfolio. | 失误 -1.0% | -9.4% | 2026-08-17T04:30:04.089380+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $ETH is in such a tremendous spot to be added to portfolios. | 失误 -5.3% | -10.7% | 2026-08-17T04:00:38.660453+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I would suggest that this is going to hold and that we'll start to dive into green weeks going into November. | 失误 -6.9% | -12.9% | 2026-08-17T04:00:38.104244+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ARB 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | That, technically, is a potential 200% run against Bitcoin in the coming period. | 失误 -15.4% | -21.0% | 2026-08-17T04:00:35.310864+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I assume we'll break through it during this week and, then, $120K is next. | 命中 +3.2% | +3.2% | 2026-08-17T04:00:32.343816+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Strong new ATHs. | 失误 -9.6% | -9.6% | 2026-08-17T04:00:06.197163+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | That's why I think we'll sweep the lows at $107K and see what we're going to get from there. | 失误 +11.5% | +11.5% | 2026-08-17T03:30:05.185592+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I would expect that we'll be trending upwards in a few days from here. | 命中 +6.4% | +6.4% | 2026-08-17T03:00:20.588799+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | To me, this is the ideal zone to start accumulating positions in $ETH. | 失误 +0.4% | +11.9% | 2026-08-17T03:00:19.954283+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Good times are ahead. | 命中 +10.6% | +10.6% | 2026-08-17T03:00:19.424378+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | #Bitcoin breaks the crucial resistance at $112K and #Altcoins start outperforming. That's what we're going to be seeing in the coming period. | 失误 +1.4% | +1.4% | 2026-08-17T02:30:15.447113+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Short-term, the trend is down for me. | 失误 -0.3% | -0.3% | 2026-08-17T02:00:29.407324+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| OP 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Given that $OP hasn't moved as of yet, I assume we'll see a big breakout occurring as it's facing the accumulation range resistance. | 失误 -10.4% | -16.9% | 2026-08-17T02:00:27.724617+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Rejection at the resistance zone, indicating that we're likely going to be seeing some more downwards momentum. | 命中 -6.8% | -12.4% | 2026-08-17T02:00:24.677408+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | on the lower timeframes, it's clear that Bitcoin is trending upwards again. | 失误 +0.6% | +0.6% | 2026-08-17T02:00:16.081639+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。
点位战绩
命中率: 31%
13 中 · 29 错 · n=42
按 price_target_v1 判定——他喊的那个点位有没有踩到。另一把尺,永不与上方方向命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 结果 | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | — | 失误 | 2026-09-02 | 研报 → |
| LINK | — | 失误 | 2026-09-02 | 研报 → |
| ETH | > 0.03205 BTC | 命中 | 2026-09-02 | 研报 → |
| ETH | — | 失误 | 2026-09-02 | 研报 → |
| BTC | > $82700 | 失误 | 2026-09-01 | 研报 → |
| BTC | >= $75000 | 命中 | 2026-09-01 | 研报 → |
| SUI | — | 失误 | 2026-09-01 | 研报 → |
| BTC | > $82700 | 失误 | 2026-08-31 | 研报 → |
| BTC | <= $76400 | 失误 | 2026-08-31 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 失误 | 2026-08-30 | 研报 → |
| ARB | — | 失误 | 2026-08-29 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 命中 | 2026-08-28 | 研报 → |
| LINK | — | 失误 | 2026-08-28 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 命中 | 2026-08-27 | 研报 → |
| SUI | — | 失误 | 2026-08-27 | 研报 → |
| LINK | — | 失误 | 2026-08-27 | 研报 → |
| SOL | — | 命中 | 2026-08-27 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 命中 | 2026-08-25 | 研报 → |
| LINK | — | 失误 | 2026-08-25 | 研报 → |
| BTC | >= $65000 | 命中 | 2026-08-25 | 研报 → |
| BTC | <= $64000 | 失误 | 2026-08-25 | 研报 → |
| BTC | <= $62200 | 失误 | 2026-08-24 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 失误 | 2026-08-23 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 命中 | 2026-08-21 | 研报 → |
| ETH | — | 命中 | 2026-08-21 | 研报 → |
| LINK | — | 命中 | 2026-08-20 | 研报 → |
| SOL | — | 命中 | 2026-08-20 | 研报 → |
| SUI | — | 失误 | 2026-08-19 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 失误 | 2026-08-19 | 研报 → |
| SOL | — | 失误 | 2026-08-19 | 研报 → |
| ETH | > $1900 | 命中 | 2026-08-10 | 研报 → |
| AAVE | >= $100 | 失误 | 2026-08-06 | 研报 → |
| BTC | > $65000 | 失误 | 2026-08-05 | 研报 → |
| AAVE | >= $100 | 失误 | 2026-08-01 | 研报 → |
| BTC | >= $67000 | 失误 | 2026-07-29 | 研报 → |
| BTC | >= $68000 | 失误 | 2026-07-29 | 研报 → |
| BTC | > $65000 | 失误 | 2026-07-26 | 研报 → |
| BTC | > $65001 | 失误 | 2026-07-25 | 研报 → |
| BTC | >= $65000 | 失误 | 2026-07-24 | 研报 → |
| BTC | >= $70000 | 失误 | 2026-07-23 | 研报 → |
| BTC | <= $61000 | 失误 | 2026-07-09 | 研报 → |
| BTC | > $61000 | 命中 | 2026-07-09 | 研报 → |
回测记录
命中率: 18%
5 中 · 23 错 · n=28
从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 结果 | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUI 回测 | — | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $150000 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $100000 | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $90000 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| LINK 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | >= $3400 | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| AAVE 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| OP 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| ARB 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| AVAX 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| LINK 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| XRP 回测 | — | 命中 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| UNI 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $90000 | 失误 | 2026-08-16 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | > $100000 | 失误 | 2026-08-01 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $100000 | 失误 | 2026-08-01 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $91750 | 命中 | 2026-08-01 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | <= $87000 | 失误 | 2026-08-01 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $117000 | 失误 | 2026-07-30 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | == $79100 | 失误 | 2026-07-28 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $86500 | 失误 | 2026-07-28 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $87500 | 失误 | 2026-07-28 | 研报 → |
相关账号
@CryptoTony__
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n=13 · 3 个共同币种
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27%
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@blknoiz06
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@CredibleCrypto
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与 CoinVerdict 对照
CoinVerdict 胜率(settle_v1 对 BTC): 63%
两个数字用的是同一把尺:kol_directional_v1 与 settle_v1 参数完全一致——7 天窗口、±3% 带宽、山寨对 BTC、BTC 自身对美元。所以上方的命中率与 CoinVerdict 的 63% 才可以并排摆。 · 两套口径有何不同 →
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行内胶囊 · data-cv-style="pill"
浅色卡 · data-cv-style="card"
暗色卡 · data-cv-style="dark"
大数字 · data-cv-style="stat"
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数据源:VeraMind 结算账本 · 只记已验证结算,不记未到期叫单。 · 闲聊、复盘、观望不计入账本——只有明确喊单才进结算、才被计分。