@rektcapital 的已结算叫单档案
第 9 / 共 14 位已入榜 KOL 已达可评级样本
✓ 来源巡检:0 不可用检出 · 覆盖 6/6 · 最近巡检 2026-09-15
0%
命中率 · 0 中 · 4 错 · n=4
命中平均幅度(绝对口径,对美元) —
记分规则:kol_directional_v1 —— 看规则全文 →
95% 置信区间 [0.0% – 49.0%] · Wilson 95% 区间——真实胜率大致落在这个范围。
最近结算 2026-08-25(21 天前)
样本不足——区间较宽,数字还会变动。
BTC
三句话看懂
@rektcapital 最近在说什么周期历史派
- 认为当前涨势只是熊市中的反弹，并非新牛市的开始，需等待更大涨幅来确认。 原话 ↗
- 严格依据自2025年底绘制的宏观趋势线和均线来判断当前市场结构。 原话 ↗
- 反驳“已探底”的观点，指出目前的回调幅度若按历史周期看还不够深。 原话 ↗
- 建议不要在阻力位追涨（FOMO），最好在市场恐慌时的“红盘日”买入。 原话 ↗
AI 提炼 —— 这是我们对他最近 30 天 144 条公开发言的解读,不是他本人的话。每句都挂原文,欢迎对着核。
如果你跟了
跟他做,还是自己拿 BTC?
+$2跟他每一条
+$9什么都不做拿 BTC
-$7差额
实时 4 条 · 补算 52 条 —— 永不合并成一个数字。
这页金额由回测撑起 —— 把同一套规则套到历史言论上得出的假设业绩(hypothetical performance),不是实时跟单战绩。实时记录:4 / 56 条。
每条喊单当作独立投入 $100,7 天后平仓 —— 非滚仓,不含费用与滑点。 怎么算的 →
命中率走势
分维度战绩
按币种
BTC: 0%
n=4 · 样本少
按喊单
—: 0%
n=4 · 样本少
按时间窗
30d: 0%
n=4 · 样本少
90d: 0%
n=4 · 样本少
全部: 0%
n=4 · 样本少
方向战绩
| 币种 | 叫单 | 原话 | 相对口径(计入榜单) † | 绝对口径(对美元) † | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ↓ 看跌 | Bitcoin has indeed broken down from the 200-week SMA in August | 失误 +22.4% | +22.4% | 2026-08-25T00:00:04.309121+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↓ 看跌 | Naturally, Bear Market corrections tend to be deeper than even the deepest Bull Market pullbacks | 失误 +15.0% | +15.0% | 2026-08-21T00:00:07.461108+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↓ 看跌 | At some point the bounces will become so weak that the floor will simply break | 失误 +9.2% | +9.2% | 2026-08-20T00:00:07.543369+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↓ 看跌 | Bitcoin has Weekly Closed beneath the Lower High (black) once again, technically solidifying it as resistance for yet another consecutive week | 失误 +0.9% | +0.9% | 2026-08-18T00:00:13.143493+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。
回测记录
命中率: 30%
18 中 · 41 错 · n=59
从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 原话 | 相对口径(计入榜单) † | 绝对口径(对美元) † | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin has successfully retested its final major Weekly resistance into new support New All Time Highs are here | 失误 +0.3% | +0.3% | 2026-08-18T21:00:27.431579+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Ethereum is slowly getting ready to rally across its entire $2500-$3900 Macro Range (black-black) | 命中 +14.7% | +17.8% | 2026-08-18T21:00:26.497651+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin is on the cusp of a breakout from its short-term pattern (blue) | 命中 +6.6% | +6.6% | 2026-08-18T21:00:25.156662+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin just about Daily Closed above the Daily diagonal resistance | 命中 +5.9% | +5.9% | 2026-08-18T21:00:19.972897+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | → 看平 | the meandering between $2200-$2500 is set to continue | 失误 +5.5% | +8.7% | 2026-08-18T21:00:17.140070+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin has broken two 2-week Downtrends over the past month | 失误 +0.8% | +0.8% | 2026-08-18T21:00:13.471601+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Soon, Bitcoin will be entering its 5th week where it treats $104400 as support | 失误 -2.6% | -2.6% | 2026-08-18T20:30:19.312935+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Looks like Ethereum has positioned itself for a reclaim of the Macro Range ($2500-$4000) | 失误 -1.3% | +2.8% | 2026-08-18T20:30:09.258298+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin hasn't just broken the Downtrend and successfully retested it as support for the first time since Downtrend formation But Bitcoin has also been able to sustainably maintain above the Downtrend for a period of several consecutive days now | 命中 +11.2% | +11.2% | 2026-08-18T18:00:13.792240+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Bitcoin is experiencing downside continuation after upside wicking into the early March Weekly lows (red) | 失误 +1.7% | +1.7% | 2026-08-18T18:00:10.426069+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | After its latest advance, Bitcoin is now pulling back towards the general Daily CME Gap area outlined a few days ago | 失误 -0.6% | -0.6% | 2026-08-18T17:30:12.931920+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin has most recently Daily Closed above the 200 EMA and in fact is now in the process of retesting it into new support | 命中 +3.6% | +3.6% | 2026-08-18T17:30:12.028753+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin will try to completely fill the brand new CME Gap that formed earlier this week between $82245 and $87000 | 失误 -0.3% | -0.3% | 2026-08-18T17:30:07.645140+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | the idea of a weakening support at ~$63300 (orange) is still in play | 命中 -3.1% | -3.1% | 2026-08-17T13:00:29.117453+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | But what the data hides is that the second half of August in Bear Markets tends to be more bearish | 失误 -0.8% | -0.8% | 2026-08-17T13:00:03.364045+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Looks like #BTC is rejecting from the 50-Month EMA | 失误 -0.5% | -0.5% | 2026-08-17T11:30:12.912372+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | History suggests this move could end as a weaker rally to form yet another Macro Lower High | 命中 -3.2% | -3.2% | 2026-08-17T11:30:09.539840+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Macro-wise, this is still looking very 2022-esque whereby any relief would see the 50-Month EMA (purple) turn into new resistance | 命中 -4.0% | -4.0% | 2026-08-17T11:30:07.268773+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | The 200-week SMA (orange) continues to act as support in the short-term | 失误 +2.3% | +2.3% | 2026-08-17T11:00:12.892815+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin is therefore likely to continue experiencing relief throughout July and so a brief reclaim of the 200-week SMA wouldn't be out of the ordinary to enable that limited relief-focused upside | 失误 +0.2% | +0.2% | 2026-08-17T10:30:09.171525+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | History suggests neither of these technical milestones will happen and that the Bear Market still has ~6 months to go | 失误 +1.1% | +1.1% | 2026-08-17T10:30:08.500003+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Generally, prices tends to lose the 50-Month EMA and then turn it into new resistance before additional downside over time | 失误 +3.8% | +3.8% | 2026-08-17T10:00:17.317331+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin continues to shape up for a mid-Summer relief rally | 命中 +8.1% | +8.1% | 2026-08-17T10:00:14.248660+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | any relief would see the 50-Month EMA (purple) turn into new resistance | 失误 +5.2% | +5.2% | 2026-08-17T10:00:08.532558+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | More, history suggests that this deviation will go even lower over time | 失误 +3.0% | +3.0% | 2026-08-17T10:00:02.742374+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | it's very likely that the rebound from here will be even weaker And this is how the ~$60,000 area will be completely lost as support over time | 失误 -1.7% | -1.7% | 2026-08-17T09:30:13.896833+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Bitcoin is getting close to a bottom but it's not there quite yet and there's still time left | 命中 -6.6% | -6.6% | 2026-08-17T09:30:09.550287+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Previous crashes which occurred on high seller volume in this Bear Market actually preceded temporary local bottoms to kickstart limited rallies of relief | 失误 -5.3% | -5.3% | 2026-08-17T09:30:06.513348+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Additional macro downside likely to still come | 命中 -3.7% | -3.7% | 2026-08-17T09:00:16.606061+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | This current bounce is most likely going to demonstrate how $60,000 is a progressively weakening support before breakdown over time | 失误 -0.1% | -0.1% | 2026-08-17T09:00:14.511872+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Bitcoin producing a limited rebound from ~$60000 to demonstrate weakening support | 失误 +5.1% | +5.1% | 2026-08-17T09:00:11.008470+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Historically, Bitcoin has deviated anything between -14% to -31% below the 200-week SMA to find its absolute Bear Market Bottom | 失误 +5.9% | +5.9% | 2026-08-17T09:00:07.193186+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Bitcoin is getting close to a bottom but it's not there quite yet | 失误 +4.1% | +4.1% | 2026-08-17T08:30:10.024936+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | The good news is there are 1-2 such clusters left in this Bitcoin Bear Market, with the Bear Market Bottom being the final cluster | 失误 -0.4% | -0.4% | 2026-08-17T08:30:09.058041+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | The Bitcoin EMAs that tend to figure as support in Bull Markets and as resistance in Bear Markets are acting as resistance right now | 命中 -13.2% | -13.2% | 2026-08-17T08:00:12.024308+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | confirming that price will be consolidating within the CME Gap until further notice | 失误 -4.3% | -4.3% | 2026-08-17T07:30:07.923563+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | This meandering will likely continue... but somehow ultimately fail to resolve with sizeable bullish momentum before transitioning into Macro Downside over time | 失误 +1.9% | +1.9% | 2026-08-17T06:30:07.661153+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | As things stand, Bitcoin is treating both 2021 and 2024 old All Time Highs as resistance | 失误 -2.7% | -2.7% | 2026-08-17T06:00:15.301907+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | As a result, this technically means that the 200-week EMA continues to figure as resistance | 失误 -0.6% | -0.6% | 2026-08-17T05:30:29.030061+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | this was the pivot point for trend acceleration to the upside however Bitcoin's price wasn't able to break it to enter prolonged Price Discovery | 命中 -10.9% | -10.9% | 2026-08-17T05:30:06.904243+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | History suggests that the Range breakout is a matter of time because the 12-Month Close is poised to occur above $93500 | 失误 -5.2% | -5.2% | 2026-08-17T04:30:23.021308+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | The Bitcoin Weekly Close is in and price will now try to build a floor at the ~$86k level so as to develop a newfound range here | 命中 -1.7% | -1.7% | 2026-08-17T04:30:16.000371+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | There's a high probability the Weekly Candle Closes below the 50-week EMA and so the price reaction that follows over the next couple of weeks or so will be macro trend-defining | 命中 -7.9% | -7.9% | 2026-08-17T04:30:11.507849+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | → 看平 | Ethereum is still holding its Range (black-black) | 命中 -1.0% | +4.4% | 2026-08-17T04:00:32.003700+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | #BTC continues to hold higher timeframe support | 失误 +4.2% | +4.2% | 2026-08-17T04:00:31.194927+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | In fact, Bitcoin is maintaining this EMA as support at candle-bodied Higher and Higher Lows | 失误 +1.7% | +1.7% | 2026-08-17T04:00:29.568348+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin continues to maintain itself above the 21-week EMA (green) ... Bitcoin is maintaining this EMA as support at candle-bodied Higher and Higher Lows | 失误 -4.0% | -4.0% | 2026-08-17T04:00:18.002705+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $SOL has just broken out to $245 | 失误 -1.5% | -1.5% | 2026-08-17T03:30:03.608279+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Which will it be - reclaim for new All Time Highs soon or one last pullback before new All Time Highs later? | 失误 -3.8% | -4.0% | 2026-08-17T03:30:02.597848+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| DOGE 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $DOGE is showing real signs of the $0.27 resistance weakening as a point of rejection | 失误 -3.5% | -1.8% | 2026-08-17T03:00:16.216194+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | So far, so good | 失误 -2.3% | -2.3% | 2026-08-17T03:00:07.126593+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | SUI continues to successfully post-breakout retest the top of its Macro Triangle into new support | 失误 -2.1% | -2.1% | 2026-08-17T03:00:06.813290+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | The goal is for Bitcoin to reclaim $114k into support first | 失误 -0.0% | -0.0% | 2026-08-17T03:00:06.244598+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| DOGE 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Looks like Dogecoin has finally turned the Pre-Halving highs into new support | 失误 -7.3% | -7.5% | 2026-08-17T03:00:05.092144+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $113k was a weak resistance | 失误 -0.3% | -0.3% | 2026-08-17T02:30:15.997618+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Bitcoin has Daily Closed above the Bull Flag top & is successfully retesting it into support to fully confirm the breakout | 失误 -7.3% | -7.3% | 2026-08-17T02:00:27.746941+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $ETH has turned a long-standing Downtrend dating back to late 2021 into new support | 失误 +3.0% | +3.8% | 2026-08-17T02:00:17.458804+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | The Range-bound movement continues | 命中 +1.5% | +1.5% | 2026-08-17T02:00:06.781016+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | Bitcoin continues to simply hold its Range Low (blue) and Higher Low (black) as support; The Range-bound movement continues | 命中 -2.4% | -2.4% | 2026-08-17T02:00:06.239088+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。
点位战绩
命中率: 0%
0 中 · 5 错 · n=5
按 price_target_v1 判定——他喊的那个点位有没有踩到。另一把尺,永不与上方方向命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 结果 | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | <= $66000 | 失误 | 2026-09-01 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 失误 | 2026-08-25 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 失误 | 2026-08-21 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 失误 | 2026-08-20 | 研报 → |
| BTC | >= $66000 | 失误 | 2026-08-01 | 研报 → |
回测记录
命中率: 52%
15 中 · 14 错 · n=29
从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 结果 | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 回测 | >= $119200 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | > $119200 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | > $108890 | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $104400 | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | > $104400 | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | > $106600 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $97000 | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | < $104500 | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | > $93500 | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $86900 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $86800 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | — | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| SUI 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | — | 命中 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| DOGE 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | — | 命中 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | > $93500 | 失误 | 2026-08-01 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $93500 | 失误 | 2026-08-01 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $86000 | 命中 | 2026-08-01 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | > $108400 | 命中 | 2026-07-31 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $108000 | 失误 | 2026-07-31 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $111000 | 失误 | 2026-07-31 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | > $114500 | 失误 | 2026-07-31 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | > $114000 | 命中 | 2026-07-30 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $117200 | 命中 | 2026-07-30 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | < $68300 | 命中 | 2026-07-28 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | < $63200 | 命中 | 2026-07-08 | 研报 → |
相关账号
@CryptoMichNL
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@CryptoTony__
31%
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@BigCheds
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@blknoiz06
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@CredibleCrypto
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与 CoinVerdict 对照
CoinVerdict 胜率(settle_v1 对 BTC): 63%
两个数字用的是同一把尺:kol_directional_v1 与 settle_v1 参数完全一致——7 天窗口、±3% 带宽、山寨对 BTC、BTC 自身对美元。所以上方的命中率与 CoinVerdict 的 63% 才可以并排摆。 · 两套口径有何不同 →
嵌入这张战绩卡
把这段代码粘到你的站点。新的结算产生后,徽章会自动更新。 · 分享图卡(发 X 用 PNG)
实时预览 —— 真实数据,与你站点加载的是同一个脚本。
行内胶囊 · data-cv-style="pill"
浅色卡 · data-cv-style="card"
暗色卡 · data-cv-style="dark"
大数字 · data-cv-style="stat"
媒体与创作者可引用 CoinVerdict 数据,需署名并回链。
数据源:VeraMind 结算账本 · 只记已验证结算,不记未到期叫单。 · 闲聊、复盘、观望不计入账本——只有明确喊单才进结算、才被计分。