@TedPillows — settled call record
#3 of 14 ranked KOLs Rated — sample threshold met
✓ Source check: 0 unavailable · 19/19 covered · last sweep 2026-09-07
62%
Hit rate · 5 hits · 3 misses · n=8
avg |move| of hits (absolute, vs USD) ±17.2%
(computable 5/5)
Rate rule: kol_directional_v1 — read the full rule →
95% CI [30.6% – 86.3%] · Wilson 95% interval — where the true rate likely sits.
Last settled 2026-09-01 (6d ago)
Small sample — the interval is wide and the number will move.
BTC, ETH
In three sentences
What @TedPillows has been sayingchart purist
- Argues that altcoins will keep lagging until their total market cap breaks a specific downtrend line on the chart. source ↗
- States that Ethereum dropping below $1,550 was a trap and reclaiming that price likely signals the bottom. source ↗
- Estimates Bitcoin will likely retrace to $74k-$75k before pumping to $80k based on liquidity levels. source ↗
- Believes a 20–30% drop was a necessary reset to wipe out late long positions. source ↗
AI-distilled — our read of 200 public posts from the last 30 days, not their words. Every line links to the original so you can check us.
If you had followed
Follow the calls, or just hold BTC?
+$198following every call
+$0just holding BTC
+$198the difference
8 live · 90 backtested — never merged into one number.
These dollar figures are carried by backtests — hypothetical performance from applying the same rule to past statements, not a live track record. Live records: 8 / 98.
Each call is an independent $100 position, closed after 7 days — no compounding, no fees, no slippage. How this is scored →
Best call (absolute move vs USD, within computable sample)
ETH
+28.7%
resolved 2026-08-23T00:00:05.522182+00:00
earliest computable hit: 2026-08-20T00:00:09.519350+00:00 · computable 5/5
Hit rate over time
Breakdown
By coin
BTC: 57%
n=7 · thin
ETH: 100%
n=1 · thin
By call
—: 62%
n=8 · thin
By window
30d: 62%
n=8 · thin
90d: 62%
n=8 · thin
All time: 62%
n=8 · thin
Directional record
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ↑ Bullish | A very strong case that the bottom is in. | MISS -0.5% | -0.5% | 2026-09-01T00:00:06.630178+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC | ↑ Bullish | This looks good for more upside. | MISS -0.1% | -0.1% | 2026-08-31T00:00:07.041469+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC | ↑ Bullish | We started building our portfolio in the beginning of July. Enjoying this pump. | HIT +9.9% | +9.9% | 2026-08-28T00:00:07.009200+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC | ↑ Bullish | Higher. | HIT +14.0% | +14.0% | 2026-08-27T00:00:07.941313+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH | ↑ Bullish | I was bearish on $ETH at $4,900. I'm not bearish at the current price. | HIT +5.3% | +28.7% | 2026-08-23T00:00:05.522182+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC | ↑ Bullish | Because once the market starts moving, people will come back. They’ll start paying attention again when Bitcoin is at $80K, $100K or higher | HIT +24.3% | +24.3% | 2026-08-22T00:00:03.759312+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC | ↑ Bullish | Max pain is to the upside for Bitcoin. | HIT +9.2% | +9.2% | 2026-08-20T00:00:09.519350+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC | ↑ Bullish | This happened in April 2025 and March 2026, and in both instances, Bitcoin rallied 30% or more. | MISS +0.9% | +0.9% | 2026-08-18T00:00:13.062624+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Backtested records
Hit rate: 22%
20 hits · 72 misses · n=92
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | My longs are loaded, now send Ethereum to $4,000. | MISS -1.6% | -4.8% | 2026-08-18T21:30:14.696336+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | I'm longing every Ethereum dip. | HIT +5.8% | +5.0% | 2026-08-18T21:30:08.123172+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Ethereum to $4,000 is next. | HIT +21.6% | +22.0% | 2026-08-18T21:00:28.660552+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Alts have started to look really good here. | MISS +0.4% | +0.4% | 2026-08-18T21:00:27.871519+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Ethereum is going to $4,000. 🚀 | HIT +19.5% | +19.9% | 2026-08-18T21:00:27.532994+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | I think it's time Ethereum visits the range-high this week. | HIT +7.1% | +18.5% | 2026-08-18T21:00:23.883890+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Pump it. | MISS -5.6% | -8.9% | 2026-08-18T20:30:17.538771+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | The dump below $76K was bottom and now BTC is heading higher. | HIT +6.3% | +6.3% | 2026-08-18T19:00:18.526402+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SOL backtested | ↑ Bullish | Will something similar happen again? | HIT +9.2% | +19.6% | 2026-08-18T17:00:21.812025+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | I think this time won't be any different for Ethereum. | MISS +1.2% | +7.0% | 2026-08-18T17:00:14.548605+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SOL backtested | ↑ Bullish | If you believe in $SOL, now is the time to bid. | MISS -3.9% | -3.8% | 2026-08-18T17:00:13.525580+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Time for that final leg up! | MISS -0.3% | -0.3% | 2026-08-18T17:00:12.163055+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Exciting times ahead for Ethereum! | MISS -6.8% | -11.4% | 2026-08-18T16:30:07.758202+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SOL backtested | ↑ Bullish | Higher. | MISS +2.1% | -0.9% | 2026-08-17T13:00:27.267598+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Max pain is still to the upside for $ETH | MISS +1.3% | -1.7% | 2026-08-17T13:00:13.104027+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Spot buyers are pushing $BTC higher. | MISS -1.3% | -1.3% | 2026-08-17T13:00:08.739664+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bullish. | MISS +0.3% | -1.5% | 2026-08-17T13:00:07.320638+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | This should continue for more upside. | MISS -0.8% | -0.8% | 2026-08-17T12:30:14.270305+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SOL backtested | ↑ Bullish | Today's crypto move is narrow, not broad: Solana is up 4.8% and Chainlink up 1.6%, while XRP, Dogecoin and SUI are flat to lower. | MISS -1.7% | -2.4% | 2026-08-17T12:30:04.203398+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Pump this baby. | MISS -1.3% | -1.7% | 2026-08-17T12:00:10.991009+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Higher. | MISS -2.8% | -2.8% | 2026-08-17T12:00:10.262877+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Higher. | MISS -0.8% | -3.5% | 2026-08-17T12:00:10.241871+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | As compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum is looking strong, and I think the rally isn't done yet. | MISS +0.8% | -1.6% | 2026-08-17T12:00:08.688780+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | It seems like BTC wants more pump here. | MISS -2.0% | -2.0% | 2026-08-17T12:00:04.868426+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | more room for a pump before euphoria. | MISS -0.5% | -0.5% | 2026-08-17T11:30:12.790774+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | IMO, Ethereum could begin its next move up in a few days. | MISS +2.6% | +2.1% | 2026-08-17T11:30:12.767916+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Pump this baby. | MISS +2.1% | -1.2% | 2026-08-17T11:30:09.972591+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | $BTC price and RSI still have room to grow. | MISS -4.0% | -4.0% | 2026-08-17T11:30:07.290477+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | ETH broke above $1,900 to $1,933, a six-week high, confirming the bullish setup I'd been watching rather than just testing it | HIT +3.7% | -0.4% | 2026-08-17T11:30:07.200138+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | A pump to trap late buyers and then the final capitulation. | MISS -0.7% | -0.7% | 2026-08-17T11:00:21.320299+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Now watching for opportunities to buy back lower. | MISS +0.3% | +0.3% | 2026-08-17T11:00:19.105905+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | This looks like the start of a correction. | MISS -1.2% | +0.7% | 2026-08-17T11:00:17.752304+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Even so, I still believe $66,000 is the magnet. | HIT +4.7% | +4.7% | 2026-08-17T11:00:08.797494+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Even so, I still believe $66,000 is the magnet. | MISS +1.5% | +1.5% | 2026-08-17T11:00:08.487368+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SUI backtested | ↑ Bullish | Which Altcoin deserves to be in Top 3? $SUI | MISS +0.4% | +1.8% | 2026-08-17T11:00:08.466017+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | IMO, Ethereum will tap the upside liquidity first | MISS +2.1% | +3.6% | 2026-08-17T11:00:07.917387+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | This looks bad in the short term. | MISS +2.7% | +2.7% | 2026-08-17T10:30:11.718324+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Dump. | MISS -2.7% | -2.7% | 2026-08-17T10:30:09.492458+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | If this structure continues to hold, more upside coming. | MISS +0.2% | +0.2% | 2026-08-17T10:30:09.146816+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Spot demand is pushing $ETH higher. | MISS -0.7% | +0.4% | 2026-08-17T10:30:08.527919+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SOL backtested | ↓ Bearish | Now, there are huge long-side liquidity clusters forming below $75. | HIT -7.4% | -5.1% | 2026-08-17T10:30:05.834883+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | This is just a relief rally | MISS +2.7% | +2.7% | 2026-08-17T10:30:03.869587+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Looks good in the short-term. | HIT +5.0% | +11.6% | 2026-08-17T10:00:12.304365+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | $BTC is currently trading at one of the most historically oversold levels we’ve ever seen. | HIT +5.9% | +5.9% | 2026-08-17T09:00:07.137072+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | The lower low is still coming. | MISS -0.4% | -0.4% | 2026-08-17T08:30:07.882863+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | This is the last support zone for Ethereum before new lows. | HIT -6.7% | -10.6% | 2026-08-17T08:30:07.586268+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | IMO, Bitcoin will tap this zone before more weakness. | MISS -4.0% | -4.0% | 2026-08-17T08:00:06.079825+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Also, ETH is way oversold on the 4H timeframe, so a bounceback is expected. | MISS -1.2% | -0.8% | 2026-08-17T07:30:11.378004+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | Not looking good for $ETH and alts. | MISS -2.7% | -7.2% | 2026-08-17T07:30:07.215328+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | $ETH is looking weak here. | MISS -1.3% | +1.9% | 2026-08-17T07:00:21.096906+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | IMO, BTC is now very close to its local top, and the chances of another downside are very high. | MISS +4.1% | +4.1% | 2026-08-17T06:30:09.421744+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | A reclaim means Bitcoin will tap March highs. | HIT +5.3% | +5.3% | 2026-08-17T06:30:05.219434+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | $BTC got rejected from the $69,000-$70,000 resistance zone. | MISS +4.3% | +4.3% | 2026-08-17T06:00:22.660273+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Not looking good for Bitcoin. | MISS -2.8% | -2.8% | 2026-08-17T06:00:20.116958+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | IMO, Ethereum will have a fakeout above the $2,400 level before the next downtrend. | MISS -2.5% | -7.0% | 2026-08-17T06:00:11.574503+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin will break above this zone and pump towards $76,000-$78,000 before the next leg down. | MISS -6.8% | -6.8% | 2026-08-17T06:00:09.701551+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | I expect a pump above the resistance zone to convince everyone that the bottom is in. | MISS +2.4% | +2.4% | 2026-08-17T05:30:29.884584+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | $ETH has broken down from its bear flag pattern. | MISS +2.6% | +9.2% | 2026-08-17T05:30:24.657408+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | The next major resistance zone is around $74,000-$76,000 | MISS -2.1% | -2.1% | 2026-08-17T05:30:13.749519+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | → Sideways | yeah just grinding around support rn | MISS +5.3% | +5.3% | 2026-08-17T05:30:10.944790+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | $BTC and alts aren't gonna like this. | HIT -6.0% | -6.0% | 2026-08-17T05:00:41.504066+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | At this point, a sweep of the $2,800-$2,850 support level before the next rally seems highly likely for Ethereum. | MISS -2.6% | -8.4% | 2026-08-17T05:00:41.480380+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | Bearish bias, no invalidation yet | MISS +1.1% | +1.0% | 2026-08-17T05:00:40.123702+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | This is not the time to be bearish. | MISS -6.2% | -6.2% | 2026-08-17T05:00:37.696597+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | so a bounceback is expected. | MISS +2.0% | +7.3% | 2026-08-17T05:00:34.403070+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL have lost their short-term uptrend. | MISS +2.0% | +2.0% | 2026-08-17T05:00:08.551607+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL have lost their short-term uptrend. | MISS +0.7% | +2.7% | 2026-08-17T05:00:08.483340+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | Ethereum is now going down, and the next support zone is around the $3,000-$3,100 level. | HIT -5.5% | -12.6% | 2026-08-17T04:30:24.227733+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | It seems like the Sunday pump has started | MISS +0.0% | +0.0% | 2026-08-17T04:30:16.778305+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | we could see a CME gap fill followed by a bounce. | MISS -9.8% | -9.8% | 2026-08-17T04:30:07.314391+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | $ETH failed to reclaim the $3,700 level and is now going down. | MISS +1.3% | -8.6% | 2026-08-17T04:30:07.291172+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | If Bitcoin fails to hold this level, a retest of $100,000 will just be a matter of time. | MISS -0.5% | -0.5% | 2026-08-17T04:00:39.811312+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SOL backtested | ↓ Bearish | I don't see a way for Solana to rally until treasury companies start aggressive buying. | HIT -10.1% | -15.9% | 2026-08-17T04:00:37.547004+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | $111k zone looks like solid support so far | MISS -6.4% | -6.4% | 2026-08-17T04:00:37.016005+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | before we jump to new ATHs. | MISS -10.1% | -10.1% | 2026-08-17T04:00:35.676074+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | Ethereum is still consolidating below the $4,000 resistance level, which means bears are still dominating. | MISS -2.6% | -6.1% | 2026-08-17T04:00:34.504337+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | On the upside, there isn't much resistance until $112,000 level. | HIT +5.4% | +5.4% | 2026-08-17T04:00:32.026140+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Now there's little to no support until $101,000-$102,000. | MISS +4.3% | +4.3% | 2026-08-17T04:00:30.122143+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | The next support region is around $3,600, which will most likely get retested. | MISS -1.5% | +2.7% | 2026-08-17T04:00:30.099405+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | This is the level I'm eyeing to load heavily on Ethereum. | MISS -5.0% | -7.2% | 2026-08-17T03:30:03.941481+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | If support cracks, new bull run has to wait | MISS +1.5% | +1.5% | 2026-08-17T03:00:15.042408+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | → Sideways | Nothing has changed for Ethereum, so expect sideways price action. | MISS -4.8% | -9.8% | 2026-08-17T03:00:14.741623+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | The next resistance zone for Ethereum is around $4,700 before a new ATH. | MISS -4.8% | -5.2% | 2026-08-17T02:30:16.816937+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | @jobier72 $3,800 really is standing out as key support right now | MISS -4.2% | -2.3% | 2026-08-17T02:30:10.937833+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Whales are taking profit vs. cost basis, with flows rotating into $ETH. | MISS -5.5% | -6.0% | 2026-08-17T02:30:05.341684+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | When this compression breaks out, a new ATH is probably next. | MISS -3.7% | -8.1% | 2026-08-17T02:30:03.529443+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | $ETH is really strong this morning. | MISS -5.5% | -11.2% | 2026-08-17T02:00:24.649209+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Ethereum is ready to go higher, 1st target is ATH. | HIT +6.9% | +5.2% | 2026-08-17T02:00:19.548974+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | I think it can be a lot higher but for the first target I have 140k | MISS -1.6% | -1.6% | 2026-08-17T02:00:18.290430+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | And it happened exactly as predicted. Ethereum has smashed through its resistance and is now heading higher. | MISS +3.0% | +3.8% | 2026-08-17T02:00:18.020805+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Deeper Ethereum dips are for buying. | HIT +20.7% | +27.1% | 2026-08-17T02:00:14.019225+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Send ETH above $4,000 now. 🚀 | HIT +10.0% | +13.5% | 2026-08-17T02:00:12.909005+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Price-target record
Hit rate: 53%
10 hits · 9 misses · n=19
Graded under price_target_v1 — did the stated price target print? A different rule, never merged into the directional rate above.
| Coin | Call | Result | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | >= $71000 | HIT | 2026-09-01 | verdict → |
| BTC | — | MISS | 2026-09-01 | verdict → |
| BTC | — | MISS | 2026-08-31 | verdict → |
| BTC | — | HIT | 2026-08-28 | verdict → |
| BTC | — | HIT | 2026-08-27 | verdict → |
| BTC | >= $100000 | MISS | 2026-08-26 | verdict → |
| ETH | — | HIT | 2026-08-23 | verdict → |
| BTC | — | HIT | 2026-08-22 | verdict → |
| BTC | — | HIT | 2026-08-20 | verdict → |
| BTC | <= $66800 | HIT | 2026-08-16 | verdict → |
| BTC | >= $66000 | MISS | 2026-08-01 | verdict → |
| ETH | >= $2000 | MISS | 2026-07-28 | verdict → |
| BTC | >= $64000 | MISS | 2026-07-28 | verdict → |
| BTC | >= $66000 | HIT | 2026-07-21 | verdict → |
| BTC | >= $68000 | MISS | 2026-07-21 | verdict → |
| BTC | > $65000 | HIT | 2026-07-20 | verdict → |
| ETH | > $1850 | MISS | 2026-07-18 | verdict → |
| BTC | <= $62500 | MISS | 2026-07-18 | verdict → |
| BTC | <= $65000 | HIT | 2026-07-14 | verdict → |
Backtested records
Hit rate: 14%
2 hits · 12 misses · n=14
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
| Coin | Call | Result | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $125000 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | >= $4000 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| SOL backtested | — | HIT | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| SUI backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| SOL backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | >= $4000 | MISS | 2026-08-01 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | <= $4000 | HIT | 2026-07-31 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $150000 | MISS | 2026-07-30 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | <= $3900 | MISS | 2026-07-30 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | >= $4000 | MISS | 2026-07-30 | verdict → |
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Side by side with CoinVerdict
CoinVerdict win rate (settle_v1 vs BTC): 63%
Same ruler on both sides: kol_directional_v1 runs on identical parameters to settle_v1 — a 7-day window, a ±3% band, altcoins scored vs BTC and BTC vs USD. That is why the hit rate above and CoinVerdict's 63% can sit side by side. · How the two differ →
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Source: VeraMind settled-call ledger · only verified settlements, never open calls. · Chatter, recaps and "watching" posts never enter the ledger — only explicit calls are settled and counted.