@PeterSchiff 的已结算叫单档案
✓ 来源巡检:0 不可用检出 · 覆盖 5/5 · 最近巡检 2026-08-31
记分规则:kol_directional_v1 —— 看规则全文 →
95% 置信区间 [0.0% – 43.4%] · Wilson 95% 区间——真实胜率大致落在这个范围。
最近结算 2026-08-31(0 天前)
样本不足——区间较宽,数字还会变动。
BTC
@PeterSchiff 最近在说什么金本位支持者
- 常将黄金上涨与比特币下跌对比，暗示资金会从永久性地从加密货币流向贵金属。 原话 ↗
- 认为AI是比特币的威胁，因为两者争夺算力和能源，反驳了“AI利好加密货币”的观点。 原话 ↗
- 指出黄金、油价与债券收益率同涨，以此证明美联储失控，通胀将长期持续。 原话 ↗
- 嘲讽Saylor抛售比特币以回购股票，并认为这是其陷入困境、被迫出货的信号。 原话 ↗
AI 提炼 —— 这是我们对他最近 30 天 123 条公开发言的解读,不是他本人的话。每句都挂原文,欢迎对着核。
跟他做,还是自己拿 BTC?
实时 5 条 · 补算 14 条 —— 永不合并成一个数字。
每条喊单当作独立投入 $100,7 天后平仓 —— 非滚仓,不含费用与滑点。 怎么算的 →
按币种
按喊单
按时间窗
| 币种 | 叫单 | 原话 | 相对口径(计入榜单) † | 绝对口径(对美元) † | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ↓ 看跌 | AI isn’t bullish for Bitcoin; it’s a threat to it. | 失误 -0.1% | -0.1% | 2026-08-31T00:00:07.145011+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↓ 看跌 | Sell Bitcoin, buy gold. | 失误 +9.9% | +9.9% | 2026-08-28T00:00:07.034837+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↓ 看跌 | In contrast, Bitcoin is a sell. | 失误 +14.0% | +14.0% | 2026-08-27T00:00:07.518626+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↓ 看跌 | There isn't much upside above that level, but plenty of downside below. | 失误 +22.4% | +22.4% | 2026-08-25T00:00:06.369449+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↓ 看跌 | Gold and silver are rallying as stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin are selling off. Get used to it. | 失误 +0.9% | +0.9% | 2026-08-18T00:00:13.249691+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。
从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 原话 | 相对口径(计入榜单) † | 绝对口径(对美元) † | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Long term Bitcoin will go much lower than $50K | 失误 +1.7% | +1.7% | 2026-08-18T23:30:03.157891+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | By the time he finishes his weekly buying and reports what he bought on Monday, the price has already declined without his continued buying to support it. | 失误 +2.5% | +2.5% | 2026-08-18T23:00:36.087581+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | How ironic that the main reason to buy Bitcoin is that politicians who were paid to support it are doing favors for those who helped get them elected. | 命中 -6.3% | -6.3% | 2026-08-18T23:00:33.272022+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Time to sell your Bitcoin and buy gold. | 命中 -8.5% | -8.5% | 2026-08-18T23:00:10.717732+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Get out now! | 失误 +6.0% | +0.0% | 2026-08-18T22:30:12.346697+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | I would expect the near term support to be lower down. | 失误 +7.5% | +7.5% | 2026-08-18T17:30:02.294016+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | The Bitcoin party is over. | 失误 -0.8% | -0.8% | 2026-08-17T13:00:03.517741+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | I also expect a much bigger selloff in Bitcoin. | 失误 +0.3% | +0.3% | 2026-08-17T12:00:12.383586+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | There will not enough net new buying to support the price when Strategy is selling so much. | 失误 +8.1% | +8.1% | 2026-08-17T10:00:14.959763+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | The most likely resolution is a retest of the longer-term uptrend off the Dec. 2018 low. | 失误 +5.9% | +5.9% | 2026-08-17T09:00:07.088813+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | I said the conference likely represented the peak of the mania. A blow-off top. | 命中 -4.1% | -4.1% | 2026-08-17T08:30:06.998125+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | There's too much overhead resistance to justify even speculative buys at these prices. The upside potential is limited, whereas the downside risk is significant. | 失误 +8.1% | +8.1% | 2026-08-17T06:30:04.191869+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | It's bascially building a support base around $5K, getting ready for its next big rally. | 失误 -5.3% | -5.3% | 2026-08-17T06:00:10.670464+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | The $126K ATH may have been the final ATH. | 失误 -1.8% | -1.8% | 2026-08-17T05:30:14.045035+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。
两个数字用的是同一把尺:kol_directional_v1 与 settle_v1 参数完全一致——7 天窗口、±3% 带宽、山寨对 BTC、BTC 自身对美元。所以上方的命中率与 CoinVerdict 的 64% 才可以并排摆。 · 两套口径有何不同 →
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数据源:VeraMind 结算账本 · 只记已验证结算,不记未到期叫单。 · 闲聊、复盘、观望不计入账本——只有明确喊单才进结算、才被计分。