@DaanCrypto 的已结算叫单档案
第 10 / 共 14 位已入榜 KOL 已达可评级样本
✓ 来源巡检:0 不可用检出 · 覆盖 8/8 · 最近巡检 2026-09-11
67%
命中率 · 4 中 · 2 错 · n=6
命中平均幅度(绝对口径,对美元) ±14.8%
(可计算样本 4/4)
记分规则:kol_directional_v1 —— 看规则全文 →
95% 置信区间 [30.0% – 90.3%] · Wilson 95% 区间——真实胜率大致落在这个范围。
最近结算 2026-08-30(12 天前)
样本不足——区间较宽,数字还会变动。
BTC, SOL
三句话看懂
@DaanCrypto 最近在说什么图表纯粹主义者
- 强调“压缩”和低波动周期，认为长时间横盘后必然会出现剧烈的方向性突破。 原话 ↗
- 频繁引用周线级别的200MA/EMA和“牛市支撑带”作为判断趋势的核心关键位。 原话 ↗
- 关注现货ETF资金流和Saylor的抛售行为，分析它们与价格动能的关联。 原话 ↗
- 区分健康和有毒的市场回调，偏好快速清理杠杆后的反转，而非缓慢阴跌。 原话 ↗
AI 提炼 —— 这是我们对他最近 30 天 144 条公开发言的解读,不是他本人的话。每句都挂原文,欢迎对着核。
如果你跟了
跟他做,还是自己拿 BTC?
+$68跟他每一条
-$32什么都不做拿 BTC
+$100差额
实时 6 条 · 补算 41 条 —— 永不合并成一个数字。
这页金额由回测撑起 —— 把同一套规则套到历史言论上得出的假设业绩(hypothetical performance),不是实时跟单战绩。实时记录:6 / 47 条。
每条喊单当作独立投入 $100,7 天后平仓 —— 非滚仓,不含费用与滑点。 怎么算的 →
最佳喊单(绝对幅度对美元,可计算样本内)
BTC
+24.3%
结算于 2026-08-22T00:00:05.235517+00:00
最早可计算命中记录:2026-08-22T00:00:05.235517+00:00 · 可计算样本 4/4
命中率走势
分维度战绩
按币种
BTC: 60%
n=5 · 样本少
SOL: 100%
n=1 · 样本少
按喊单
—: 67%
n=6 · 样本少
按时间窗
30d: 67%
n=6 · 样本少
90d: 67%
n=6 · 样本少
全部: 67%
n=6 · 样本少
方向战绩
| 币种 | 叫单 | 原话 | 相对口径(计入榜单) † | 绝对口径(对美元) † | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | I think dips are for buying. | 失误 +1.5% | +1.5% | 2026-08-30T00:00:07.667252+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL | ↑ 看涨 | Just needs to push a little higher here and I think this starts the next leg up. | 命中 +11.8% | +11.1% | 2026-08-29T00:00:07.031314+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | The trend is up on the daily but there's a lot of levels here to fight for in this area. | 命中 +9.9% | +9.9% | 2026-08-28T00:00:09.386739+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | $BTC Massive squeeze just occurred. | 命中 +14.0% | +14.0% | 2026-08-27T00:00:07.330904+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↓ 看跌 | ...Bitcoin trend down again after rejecting from the horizontal support/resistance. | 失误 +23.6% | +23.6% | 2026-08-24T00:00:05.570119+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC | ↑ 看涨 | $BTC will head to $200K+ at some point | 命中 +24.3% | +24.3% | 2026-08-22T00:00:05.235517+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。
回测记录
命中率: 28%
17 中 · 43 错 · n=60
从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 原话 | 相对口径(计入榜单) † | 绝对口径(对美元) † | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | $BTC Still ranging. | 失误 -3.2% | -3.2% | 2026-08-18T21:30:14.647942+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Resistance is still being held as resistance as price is moving further down within the larger range. | 失误 +2.2% | +2.2% | 2026-08-18T20:30:24.670940+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | Still in this larger range. | 命中 +1.5% | +1.5% | 2026-08-18T20:30:23.208826+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | → 看平 | Until the resistance is broken, I'm treating it as a resistance and assuming we remain range-bound for the time being. | 失误 -3.7% | -4.6% | 2026-08-18T20:30:18.739651+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | It doesn't have as many ETF inflows as $BTC does but relative to its market cap doesn't need nearly as much to keep the move going. | 失误 -4.6% | -8.3% | 2026-08-18T20:30:05.364382+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $SOL Not looking bad at all. | 失误 +1.0% | -0.8% | 2026-08-18T20:00:38.991513+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | → 看平 | Would want to see this consolidate around the $130-$140 region, make a higher low and go from there. | 命中 +2.3% | +13.1% | 2026-08-18T18:00:13.483015+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | → 看平 | For now, still stuck within the $1.7K-$2.1K range. | 失误 -4.9% | -9.3% | 2026-08-18T17:00:18.434370+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | My long term bias is still bullish on BTC and I think this correction was pretty normal for a bull cycle. | 失误 -4.3% | -4.3% | 2026-08-18T17:00:16.596081+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $70K+ is the level to break for the bulls. | 失误 -2.9% | -2.9% | 2026-08-17T13:00:27.236359+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | August is generally a more choppy month and not a trending one. | 命中 -1.3% | -1.3% | 2026-08-17T13:00:08.103087+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I think we will see a decisive move (10% +/- week) pretty soon. | 失误 -0.7% | -0.7% | 2026-08-17T12:30:05.925045+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | if Bitcoin finally shows some high timeframe strength too. | 失误 +0.3% | +0.3% | 2026-08-17T12:00:12.455073+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $SOL Starting to lose its horizontal support area. | 失误 -0.4% | -0.1% | 2026-08-17T12:00:12.270241+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $BTC Moving up higher in its $60K-$80K range. | 失误 -3.2% | -3.2% | 2026-08-17T11:30:10.550187+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Looking quite good with this bullish market structure. | 失误 +2.1% | -1.2% | 2026-08-17T11:30:09.867025+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | Pretty typical "Summer" price action honestly. Not an ideal market to trade. | 命中 +0.3% | +0.3% | 2026-08-17T11:00:18.113178+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | The market structure has flipped back to bullish on this timeframe. | 失误 -1.2% | +0.9% | 2026-08-17T11:00:15.818992+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | The key for continuation is breaking that June high, from there on out $2K+ is achieved pretty easily again I'd say. | 失误 +2.4% | +7.2% | 2026-08-17T11:00:09.094912+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Now the ETF outflows have seemingly stalled a bit, the US trading sessions have been more bullish again. | 失误 -0.4% | -0.4% | 2026-08-17T10:30:15.549819+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | This has caused many of these to pretty much trade sideways against $BTC for some time now | 失误 +6.8% | +6.8% | 2026-08-17T10:00:10.604494+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | I would not be surprised if we hang around this big area for a few more weeks at least. | 失误 -6.6% | -6.6% | 2026-08-17T09:30:12.499365+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | The massive streak of $5B+ of ETF spot outflows have stalled. | 失误 -5.0% | -5.0% | 2026-08-17T09:30:06.869391+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | For me it's pretty straight forward here for SOL, it hit its last major weekly support at ~$60 and bounced for now. | 命中 +6.5% | +6.2% | 2026-08-17T09:00:16.015140+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | The bulls need to take a stand here and start retaking some of these horizontals above. | 命中 +3.3% | +7.2% | 2026-08-17T09:00:09.820927+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Now in its 6th red daily candle and down more than the entire April/May rally. | 失误 +4.1% | +4.1% | 2026-08-17T08:30:10.000893+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Continuation down after that bearish retest in the low $80Ks region. | 失误 -0.4% | -0.4% | 2026-08-17T08:30:09.080468+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | For now price is stuck within this mini-range since last week. | 失误 -11.7% | -11.7% | 2026-08-17T08:30:05.137953+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | I would not be surprised to see us trade between $60K-$80K for quite a while. | 失误 -17.6% | -17.6% | 2026-08-17T08:30:03.991428+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Another lower high in the bigger down trend until proven otherwise. | 命中 -13.2% | -13.2% | 2026-08-17T08:00:12.002798+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Of course the trend is down, and I'd like to see us get there first. | 失误 +3.9% | -10.5% | 2026-08-17T08:00:10.105658+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Held on to its Weekly 200EMA again and is pushing higher on the back of the $STRC bid from Saylor. | 失误 +2.6% | +2.6% | 2026-08-17T06:30:10.795883+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | The market is slowly compressing around this $60K-$80K region. | 失误 +3.1% | +3.1% | 2026-08-17T06:00:21.308837+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Throughout history, when price met these it has often been a great value area for long term buys. | 命中 +5.3% | +5.3% | 2026-08-17T05:30:10.379655+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | it's easy to see how the market structure has shifted bearish also on the higher timeframe with the bearish rejection at $98K and this latest leg down. | 命中 -10.9% | -10.9% | 2026-08-17T05:30:06.941803+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | But this remains range bound until then. | 命中 +1.8% | +1.8% | 2026-08-17T05:00:31.902685+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | → 看平 | For now I don't see the harm in patiently waiting on the direction it chooses from here | 失误 +3.8% | +1.0% | 2026-08-17T05:00:31.579300+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Overall, this looks like a long and slow consolidation, into support and now looking to find some momentum again. | 失误 -2.4% | -4.4% | 2026-08-17T05:00:06.288434+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | For now, this daily downtrend has definitely stalled and the low to mid timeframe is trying to flip back to a bullish market structure. | 失误 -2.4% | -2.4% | 2026-08-17T05:00:03.507807+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | But this recent move down has made it so there's over a $20K+ gap to get back to the band. | 失误 +4.1% | +4.1% | 2026-08-17T04:30:15.143135+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | → 看平 | $ETH Trading around the $3K area for now as the ETH/BTC ratio is holding pretty steady the past week. | 命中 +1.2% | +0.0% | 2026-08-17T04:30:13.471520+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Continuing its bearish trend by making a new lower low. | 命中 -13.1% | -13.1% | 2026-08-17T04:30:09.877463+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | Trend is down since September and I'd need to see some strength on the lower timeframes to consider entries again on this and many other majors. | 失误 +6.3% | -7.6% | 2026-08-17T04:30:09.327869+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | $BTC Trend is down and attempted to retake the previous support area around $107K. | 命中 -13.0% | -13.0% | 2026-08-17T04:30:05.948683+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | This is a key area to hold for the bulls. | 失误 -0.3% | -6.9% | 2026-08-17T04:30:04.862329+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | ...price has broken below for the time being (although trying to retake it). | 失误 -0.5% | -0.5% | 2026-08-17T04:00:39.778902+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | $BTC Still holding on to its bull market support band with last week's close. Now trading right at it again. | 失误 -10.1% | -10.1% | 2026-08-17T04:00:35.699087+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | $BTC Range bound until further notice. | 失误 -6.6% | -6.6% | 2026-08-17T04:00:35.406995+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | The trend is up. | 失误 -5.6% | -5.6% | 2026-08-17T04:00:17.409953+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Strong move by BTC after retesting the support band on the weekly timeframe. Took just a few weeks of consolidation but did its job and catapulted Bitcoin higher. | 失误 -6.9% | -6.9% | 2026-08-17T04:00:09.412165+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | So far, bulls are protecting this area which is a key high momentum indicator for the high timeframe trend. | 命中 +9.1% | +9.1% | 2026-08-17T03:30:05.484358+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $ETH Honestly think we're in the $5K+ waiting room. Whether it's sooner or later. | 失误 -9.3% | -15.5% | 2026-08-17T03:30:04.285687+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Slowly compressing and trying to put in a base for that move higher. | 失误 -6.9% | -6.9% | 2026-08-17T03:30:04.001613+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | Overall trend is still up | 失误 +0.3% | +4.9% | 2026-08-17T03:00:19.134867+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | These slower periods are needed to eventually form a base to expand from. | 命中 +4.7% | +4.7% | 2026-08-17T03:00:16.581642+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | $ETH Making its way back to the all time high. | 失误 -3.8% | -4.0% | 2026-08-17T02:30:17.608128+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | ↑ 看涨 | I do still think we see higher levels on this later this year. | 命中 +4.2% | +9.1% | 2026-08-17T02:30:14.892768+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | ↓ 看跌 | I actually shorted it haha (did close by now though) | 失误 +4.9% | +4.9% | 2026-08-17T02:30:12.882513+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | → 看平 | No need to rush anything while Ethereum is trading within this price region. | 命中 -0.5% | +3.8% | 2026-08-17T02:30:12.040434+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | → 看平 | we're still in the same range for now. | 失误 -4.6% | -4.6% | 2026-08-17T02:30:03.563722+00:00 | 源帖 → · 研报 → |
相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。
点位战绩
命中率: 57%
4 中 · 3 错 · n=7
按 price_target_v1 判定——他喊的那个点位有没有踩到。另一把尺,永不与上方方向命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 结果 | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | — | 失误 | 2026-08-30 | 研报 → |
| SOL | — | 命中 | 2026-08-29 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 命中 | 2026-08-28 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 命中 | 2026-08-27 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 失误 | 2026-08-24 | 研报 → |
| BTC | — | 命中 | 2026-08-22 | 研报 → |
| BTC | < $55000 | 失误 | 2026-07-20 | 研报 → |
回测记录
命中率: 38%
5 中 · 8 错 · n=13
从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。
| 币种 | 叫单 | 结果 | 结算日 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | > $90000 | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | == $85000 | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | > $1750 | 命中 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-18 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| SOL 回测 | — | 失误 | 2026-08-17 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | >= $61800 | 命中 | 2026-08-16 | 研报 → |
| ETH 回测 | > $1750 | 失误 | 2026-07-29 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | <= $80000 | 命中 | 2026-07-28 | 研报 → |
| BTC 回测 | > $80000 | 命中 | 2026-07-08 | 研报 → |
相关账号
@CryptoMichNL
35%
n=23 · 2 个共同币种
@CryptoTony__
31%
n=13 · 2 个共同币种
@BigCheds
27%
n=11 · 2 个共同币种
@blknoiz06
60%
n=10 · 2 个共同币种
@CredibleCrypto
11%
n=9 · 2 个共同币种
与 CoinVerdict 对照
CoinVerdict 胜率(settle_v1 对 BTC): 63%
两个数字用的是同一把尺:kol_directional_v1 与 settle_v1 参数完全一致——7 天窗口、±3% 带宽、山寨对 BTC、BTC 自身对美元。所以上方的命中率与 CoinVerdict 的 63% 才可以并排摆。 · 两套口径有何不同 →
嵌入这张战绩卡
把这段代码粘到你的站点。新的结算产生后,徽章会自动更新。 · 分享图卡(发 X 用 PNG)
实时预览 —— 真实数据,与你站点加载的是同一个脚本。
行内胶囊 · data-cv-style="pill"
浅色卡 · data-cv-style="card"
暗色卡 · data-cv-style="dark"
大数字 · data-cv-style="stat"
媒体与创作者可引用 CoinVerdict 数据,需署名并回链。
数据源:VeraMind 结算账本 · 只记已验证结算,不记未到期叫单。 · 闲聊、复盘、观望不计入账本——只有明确喊单才进结算、才被计分。