@CryptoJelleNL 的已结算叫单档案

Name: Settled call record — @CryptoJelleNL
Creator: CoinVerdict
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

第 4 / 共 14 位已入榜 KOL 已达可评级样本

✓ 来源巡检:0 不可用检出 · 覆盖 4/4 · 最近巡检 2026-09-01

75% 命中率 · 3 中 · 1 错 · n=4 命中平均幅度(绝对口径,对美元) ±19.9% (可计算样本 3/3)

记分规则:kol_directional_v1 —— 看规则全文 →

95% 置信区间 [30.1% – 95.4%] · Wilson 95% 区间——真实胜率大致落在这个范围。

最近结算 2026-09-01(0 天前)

样本不足——区间较宽,数字还会变动。

BTC

三句话看懂

@CryptoJelleNL 最近在说什么趋势定投者

反复强调当前市场处于“夏季季节性”的横盘阶段，认为这种无聊的震荡只是暂时现象，建议保持耐心。原话 ↗
提倡使用定期定额（DCA）策略来应对“夏季横盘”，认为这能避免盯盘的焦虑，并在平淡期积累筹码。原话 ↗
通过技术指标（如周线MACD和RSI）来判断市场周期是否见底或反转，不仅仅依赖价格走势。原话 ↗
观察到机构或“老钱”已恢复对比特币的持续买入，将资金持续流入视为市场情绪可能正在转变的信号。原话 ↗

AI 提炼 —— 这是我们对他最近 30 天 61 条公开发言的解读,不是他本人的话。每句都挂原文,欢迎对着核。

如果你跟了

跟他做,还是自己拿 BTC?

+$1跟他每一条

-$42什么都不做拿 BTC

+$43差额

实时 4 条 · 补算 127 条 —— 永不合并成一个数字。

这页金额由回测撑起 —— 把同一套规则套到历史言论上得出的假设业绩(hypothetical performance),不是实时跟单战绩。实时记录:4 / 131 条。

每条喊单当作独立投入 $100,7 天后平仓 —— 非滚仓,不含费用与滑点。怎么算的 →

评分与基准

76 评分领先 76%,共 22 人已够格超基准 +3.3pp

方向命中率(全部方向记录) 29.3% (n=133 · 追踪 539 天)

同方向基准 26.0% (截至 2026-09-01)

全体中位数 26.2% (共 22 人已够格)

百分位排名(命中率) 70.5 (共 22 人已够格)

四分位标签良好 ★★★★

盈亏比 8.14% / 3.86% = 2.1 : 1 (盈亏平衡命中率 32.2%)

多空分布 ↑ 111 · ↓ 20 · → 2

评分吃的是全部已结算方向记录:前瞻与回测合在一起。上方那条线仍是纯前瞻口径,两者永不相加。

评分衡量的是同一把尺下各账号之间的相对名次,既不是预测,也不代表跟着谁做能赚到多少。

记分规则:kol_rating_v1 —— 看规则全文 →

最佳喊单(绝对幅度对美元,可计算样本内)

BTC +24.3% 结算于 2026-08-22T00:00:05.295256+00:00

最早可计算命中记录:2026-08-22T00:00:05.295256+00:00 · 可计算样本 3/3

命中率走势

分维度战绩

按币种

BTC: 75% n=4 · 样本少

按喊单

—: 75% n=4 · 样本少

按时间窗

30d: 75% n=4 · 样本少 90d: 75% n=4 · 样本少全部: 75% n=4 · 样本少

方向战绩

币种	叫单	原话	相对口径(计入榜单) †	绝对口径(对美元) †	结算日	来源
BTC	↑ 看涨	Just bought more $BTC - 25% higher than the week before.	失误 -0.5%	-0.5%	2026-09-01T00:00:16.741593+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC	↑ 看涨	Buying more $BTC every week.	命中 +14.0%	+14.0%	2026-08-27T00:00:06.643554+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC	↑ 看涨	Smells like opportunity 👀	命中 +21.3%	+21.3%	2026-08-26T00:00:08.390072+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC	↑ 看涨	More and more signals that the bottom is close.	命中 +24.3%	+24.3%	2026-08-22T00:00:05.295256+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →

相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。

回测记录

命中率: 28% 36 中 · 93 错 · n=129

从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。

币种	叫单	原话	相对口径(计入榜单) †	绝对口径(对美元) †	结算日	来源
XRP 回测	↑ 看涨	$XRP is in price discovery	失误 -7.7%	-7.9%	2026-08-18T21:00:37.186142+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	ETH broke the $3500 resistance	命中 +5.3%	+5.0%	2026-08-18T21:00:36.666846+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Global liquidity keeps moving higher, and it's dragging #Bitcoin with it.	失误 -0.7%	-0.7%	2026-08-18T21:00:36.131510+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	#Bitcoin has left the chop box - and is pushing higher again.	失误 +0.1%	+0.1%	2026-08-18T21:00:35.298129+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	Time for ETH to catch up?	命中 +27.5%	+24.8%	2026-08-18T21:00:32.086190+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	my HTF thesis has been 140k cycle top since btc was at 20k	失误 +2.7%	+2.7%	2026-08-18T21:00:26.519628+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Short-term downtrend broken & turned into uptrend	命中 +6.6%	+6.6%	2026-08-18T21:00:25.134140+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Resistance won't keep holding forever.	命中 +8.1%	+8.1%	2026-08-18T21:00:24.477870+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Breakout confirmed - time to send it a lot higher.	命中 +5.9%	+5.9%	2026-08-18T21:00:20.813793+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Bears are about to go extinct.	失误 +2.2%	+2.2%	2026-08-18T21:00:18.638638+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	#Bitcoin looks ready to rally next week.	失误 +0.9%	+0.9%	2026-08-18T21:00:08.558750+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	#Bitcoin took out the lows, and immediately reclaimed the key resistance level, and now pushes higher.	失误 +1.4%	+1.4%	2026-08-18T21:00:07.265498+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	time to find out where the ceiling is?	失误 +2.3%	+2.3%	2026-08-18T20:30:23.793394+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Ready for new highs?	失误 +1.5%	+1.5%	2026-08-18T20:30:23.236412+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Matter of time before this squeezes a lot higher.	失误 -1.4%	-1.4%	2026-08-18T20:30:22.237939+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	#Bitcoin wants higher.	失误 -3.1%	-3.1%	2026-08-18T20:30:20.769965+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Previous all-time high resistance being turned into support.	失误 -1.0%	-1.0%	2026-08-18T20:30:18.216526+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	New all-time highs next.	失误 -3.5%	-3.5%	2026-08-18T20:30:17.635609+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	This PO3 has a target of $140,000.	失误 -5.2%	-5.2%	2026-08-18T20:30:15.516526+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	then we send it higher once more.	命中 +4.1%	+4.1%	2026-08-18T20:30:11.388381+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Send it higher.	命中 +3.8%	+3.8%	2026-08-18T20:30:10.869135+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	New highs next?	命中 +4.6%	+4.6%	2026-08-18T20:30:10.311160+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	ETH comes back to life	命中 +3.8%	+8.6%	2026-08-18T20:30:10.258089+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	#Bitcoin's daily chart looks ready to push a lot higher.	失误 -3.3%	-3.3%	2026-08-18T20:00:42.448494+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Previous highs beign turned into support.	失误 -3.1%	-3.1%	2026-08-18T20:00:39.979469+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Up next: Full send.	失误 +2.0%	+2.0%	2026-08-18T20:00:37.543686+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	→ 看平	#Bitcoin still consolidates right below all-time highs, holding the key $102k level as support.	失误 +7.6%	+7.6%	2026-08-18T20:00:33.793794+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Clear skies ahead.	命中 +5.9%	+5.9%	2026-08-18T20:00:31.609876+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	#Bitcoin turning another level into support	失误 +2.6%	+2.6%	2026-08-18T20:00:30.534780+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	#Bitcoin is indeed catapulting to new all-time highs.	失误 +0.5%	+0.5%	2026-08-18T20:00:24.393040+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Send it to new all-time highs.	命中 +6.7%	+6.7%	2026-08-18T20:00:21.630155+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Simply moving sideways for a while to prepare for the next leg higher.	命中 +3.0%	+3.0%	2026-08-18T20:00:13.191503+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	$100k in sight, new all-time highs after that.	失误 -0.3%	-0.3%	2026-08-18T20:00:07.576330+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Time to spring higher.	失误 +2.4%	+2.4%	2026-08-18T20:00:03.943561+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	The trend is turning.	命中 +10.6%	+10.6%	2026-08-18T19:30:16.117248+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	A 3-day bullish divergence on top of the 3d 100ema, frontrunning the clearest support level in the history of mankind.	失误 +1.3%	+1.3%	2026-08-18T19:30:14.092579+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Tp zone starts at 70k	失误 -4.3%	-4.3%	2026-08-18T19:30:12.364177+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Looks like #Bitcoin is going for another attempt.	失误 -10.4%	-10.4%	2026-08-18T19:30:12.036388+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Higher low before attacking the monster resistance.	失误 -4.1%	-4.1%	2026-08-18T19:30:11.457248+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Looks like #Bitcoin wants to test that monster resistance zone	失误 -4.6%	-4.6%	2026-08-18T19:30:10.881104+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Historically, next week is one of the better-yielding weeks of the year. The average return is over 10%, and the median is above 5% as well. Ready to push through that $90k resistance?	失误 -2.6%	-2.6%	2026-08-18T19:30:09.049325+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Next objective: reclaiminging $90,000.	失误 -5.7%	-5.7%	2026-08-18T19:30:08.226302+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Good start, time to push for $90,000?	失误 +0.4%	+0.4%	2026-08-18T19:30:07.813982+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Daily bullish divergence locked in	失误 +0.1%	+0.1%	2026-08-18T19:30:06.023470+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
SOL 回测	↑ 看涨	Pretty sure the next SOL push sends it into price discovery - hard.	失误 -8.7%	-16.8%	2026-08-18T19:00:09.822390+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	it looks like #Bitcoin is confirming the range lows as support.	失误 -8.8%	-8.8%	2026-08-18T19:00:08.152178+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	looks like the market is ready for at least some relief.	失误 -1.3%	-1.3%	2026-08-17T13:00:08.035674+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	$BTC reclaimed the range lows, and is now pushing higher - as expected.	失误 -4.0%	-4.0%	2026-08-17T11:30:06.806772+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Weekly bullish div on top of 200d EMA support remains intact	失误 -5.9%	-5.9%	2026-08-17T09:30:12.199257+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Zoomed in, bitcoin:native is chugging higher, reclaiming another important level from the previous range.	失误 -4.5%	-4.5%	2026-08-17T09:30:03.456930+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	I think the bleed isn't over.	命中 -16.9%	-16.9%	2026-08-17T08:30:03.177692+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	people with 2 functioning eyes can see that 72k is a clear area of support	失误 -13.2%	-13.2%	2026-08-17T08:00:11.886612+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	Local trend remains down.	命中 -13.8%	-13.8%	2026-08-17T08:00:09.718221+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	Another weekly lower high forming?	命中 -5.2%	-5.2%	2026-08-17T08:00:06.997533+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	watch out for the lower high from here on $BTC.	命中 -4.0%	-4.0%	2026-08-17T08:00:04.567805+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	Expecting bears to fight back again soon.	失误 +2.0%	+2.0%	2026-08-17T06:30:11.621957+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	Bias remains down	失误 +4.5%	+4.5%	2026-08-17T06:30:09.131634+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	$BTC continues to show strength, making yet another local higher high - and turning the $70,000 area into support.	失误 +3.0%	+3.0%	2026-08-17T06:30:08.441325+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	$BTC's bearish flag is still in play.	失误 +1.9%	+1.9%	2026-08-17T06:30:07.596902+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	The argument for a bearish flag into key resistance remains strong.	失误 +5.3%	+5.3%	2026-08-17T06:30:05.243116+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	Plenty of liquidity left to take out.	失误 +5.3%	+5.3%	2026-08-17T06:00:21.662789+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	price is starting to move lower again.	失误 +3.1%	+3.1%	2026-08-17T06:00:21.374553+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	I have $BTC forming a bearish flag, straight into the key resistance area.	命中 -3.2%	-3.2%	2026-08-17T06:00:16.114899+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	The trend points lower.	命中 -5.8%	-5.8%	2026-08-17T06:00:15.741323+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	Strong downtrend, and the previous cycle highs are now confirmed as resistance.	失误 -0.6%	-0.6%	2026-08-17T05:30:29.053099+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	Trend remains down.	失误 +5.0%	+5.0%	2026-08-17T05:30:25.503112+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	until that happens, the trend is clear. Don't fight it.	失误 +6.9%	+6.9%	2026-08-17T05:30:25.238412+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	Feels like sub-60k is a matter of time at this point.	失误 +6.5%	+6.5%	2026-08-17T05:30:24.678619+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	Price is rapidly approaching the lows.	失误 -2.4%	-2.4%	2026-08-17T05:30:12.185352+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	$BTC is dropping back towards the range lows.	命中 -25.7%	-25.7%	2026-08-17T05:00:42.979011+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	We've seen this a couple of times already this cycle, where charts end up looking completely cooked only to reverse and move higher quickly.	失误 -15.1%	-15.1%	2026-08-17T05:00:42.642970+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	The market continues to be weak, despite metals rallying higher.	命中 -10.9%	-10.9%	2026-08-17T05:00:42.373584+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	$BTC is once again having to reclaim the 50-day MA/EMA cluster, after taking out those local lows the other day.	失误 -5.5%	-5.5%	2026-08-17T05:00:40.460236+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Time for bulls to step in!	失误 +0.9%	+0.9%	2026-08-17T05:00:39.327673+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Resistance is being turned into support on the first morning of the week, setting us up for a nice climb in the coming days.	失误 -4.6%	-4.6%	2026-08-17T05:00:39.037445+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Send it higher.	失误 -6.3%	-6.3%	2026-08-17T05:00:37.423273+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	The $BTC downtrend is officially over.	失误 -7.7%	-7.7%	2026-08-17T05:00:36.582373+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Time to push back up.	失误 -7.3%	-7.3%	2026-08-17T05:00:35.981507+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Bounce time.	命中 +4.9%	+4.9%	2026-08-17T05:00:32.233139+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	Wouldn't sleep on $ETH here	失误 -0.9%	+0.9%	2026-08-17T05:00:32.194980+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	#Bitcoin is going for the reclaim - pushing through the key $93k resistance area	失误 -2.7%	-2.7%	2026-08-17T05:00:31.618461+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	→ 看平	wouldn't expect too much from the market in the coming days.	命中 -0.9%	-0.9%	2026-08-17T05:00:09.693027+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	I'm not about to flip bear with #Bitcoin at key support.	失误 -7.6%	-7.6%	2026-08-17T04:30:24.197043+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Next objective: $100k.	失误 -4.6%	-4.6%	2026-08-17T04:30:22.392050+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	it's gotta be today	命中 +3.3%	+3.3%	2026-08-17T04:30:15.409466+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↓ 看跌	#Bitcoin is in free fall.	命中 -6.0%	-6.0%	2026-08-17T04:30:12.889926+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Reclaiming $110k remains the key objective, but this is a good start.	失误 -9.9%	-9.9%	2026-08-17T04:30:08.395571+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	The Americans woke up, and guess who's back - right at resistance?	失误 -13.0%	-13.0%	2026-08-17T04:30:05.971617+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	I've seen worse looking #Bitcoin charts.	失误 -5.6%	-5.6%	2026-08-17T04:00:36.501500+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	$ETH is still holding the previous highs, after breaking out from a massive bullish megaphone	失误 -7.1%	-12.3%	2026-08-17T04:00:36.454625+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	#Bitcoin looks ready for a cracking end to the year.	失误 -6.6%	-6.6%	2026-08-17T04:00:35.357337+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Matter of time before we push for the $120ks again.	失误 +1.7%	+1.7%	2026-08-17T04:00:29.262457+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	This looks very ready for a rapid expansion higher.	失误 -1.7%	-4.5%	2026-08-17T04:00:28.988250+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	Daily bullish flag breakout confirmed. Next target for $ETH: $6,650.	失误 -0.4%	-7.3%	2026-08-17T04:00:14.160828+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	$ETH broke out from the bullish megaphone, retested it, shook a bunch of people out again - and now looks ready for continuation.	失误 -2.0%	-9.5%	2026-08-17T04:00:11.080404+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Higher low next - then price discovery imo.	失误 -7.7%	-7.7%	2026-08-17T04:00:04.081264+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	Send $ETH higher.	失误 -3.5%	-2.6%	2026-08-17T04:00:02.561955+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Send it higher!	失误 +0.9%	+0.9%	2026-08-17T03:00:21.966439+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Uptober right around the corner.	命中 +9.1%	+9.1%	2026-08-17T03:00:20.266027+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Situation remains unchanged. Bullish divergences on top of support.	命中 +4.7%	+4.7%	2026-08-17T03:00:16.626269+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Onwards & upwards.	失误 +1.8%	+1.8%	2026-08-17T03:00:16.238959+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Key resistance being turned into support.	失误 -5.2%	-5.2%	2026-08-17T03:00:10.283759+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Slow & steady - on to new highs.	失误 -6.9%	-6.9%	2026-08-17T03:00:08.678745+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Every important datapoint points towards at least one more leg higher for #Bitcoin.	失误 -2.7%	-2.7%	2026-08-17T03:00:07.828669+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
SOL 回测	↑ 看涨	Clear $250 and the sky is the limit.	失误 -1.2%	-1.5%	2026-08-17T02:30:16.542511+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Local bottom close to confirmed.	失误 +2.2%	+2.2%	2026-08-17T02:30:15.160428+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	#Bitcoin bouncing from key support. Bears in disbelief once again. Send it higher.	命中 +4.7%	+4.7%	2026-08-17T02:30:14.365129+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Time for a bounce.	失误 +2.9%	+2.9%	2026-08-17T02:30:13.817781+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Main objective remains a reclaim of $118k.	命中 +4.9%	+4.9%	2026-08-17T02:30:13.199614+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	$5000 is just the beginning.	命中 +4.3%	+9.4%	2026-08-17T02:30:13.176153+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	It's time for $ETH to go berserk.	失误 -0.5%	+3.8%	2026-08-17T02:30:12.009336+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	expecting it to act as strong support.	失误 +2.6%	+2.6%	2026-08-17T02:30:09.811736+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
SOL 回测	↑ 看涨	After nearly 18 months of sideways chop, it looks ready for a new leg higher.	命中 +5.8%	+8.5%	2026-08-17T02:30:09.762988+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	Just all-time highs to clear.	失误 -2.7%	-0.2%	2026-08-17T02:30:09.236676+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	Looks like a matter of time until ETH bears get ripped a new asshole.	失误 -3.2%	-4.7%	2026-08-17T02:30:07.255936+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
SOL 回测	↑ 看涨	Suddenly - there's not much resistance left. $220, $250, and then the sky is the limit.	命中 +3.4%	+3.9%	2026-08-17T02:30:06.644768+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	$ETH bullish megaphone.	失误 -1.6%	-1.2%	2026-08-17T02:30:06.118895+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	All is ready for price discovery, time to step on the gas.	失误 -0.6%	-1.4%	2026-08-17T02:30:04.475586+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	All-time highs in sight - thin air above.	命中 +6.7%	+6.8%	2026-08-17T02:00:38.474845+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
XRP 回测	↑ 看涨	$XRP is looking ripe to push for new all-time highs	命中 +6.3%	+5.3%	2026-08-17T02:00:37.666855+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Bullish megaphone just has a target of 180	失误 -1.0%	-1.0%	2026-08-17T02:00:37.317663+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Onwards & upwards!	失误 -4.9%	-4.9%	2026-08-17T02:00:29.121275+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	feels like price discovery is a matter of time.	失误 -2.3%	-7.1%	2026-08-17T02:00:29.097870+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
SOL 回测	↑ 看涨	Above $200, very little resistance left to bring it back down.	失误 +0.6%	-6.7%	2026-08-17T02:00:28.303794+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
XRP 回测	↑ 看涨	I have a bag, ready for $5.89.	失误 -6.8%	-12.4%	2026-08-17T02:00:24.620424+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	$ETH broke out from the megaphone, and just keeps pushing higher. 📈 No more real resistance left. Bring on price discovery.	失误 -5.5%	-11.2%	2026-08-17T02:00:23.993020+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Price discovery awaits... 🚀🌙	失误 -2.1%	-2.1%	2026-08-17T02:00:20.122530+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
ETH 回测	↑ 看涨	Clear skies ahead - send it higher.	命中 +4.3%	+2.1%	2026-08-17T02:00:20.076178+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →
BTC 回测	↑ 看涨	Onwards & upwards.	命中 +7.2%	+7.2%	2026-08-17T02:00:15.520783+00:00	源帖 → · 研报 →

相对口径 = 山寨对 BTC 计价、BTC 自身对美元——所以 BTC 那一行两列是同一个数。绝对口径恒为对美元,且不参与命中判定。

点位战绩

命中率: 75% 3 中 · 1 错 · n=4

按 price_target_v1 判定——他喊的那个点位有没有踩到。另一把尺,永不与上方方向命中率合算。

币种	叫单	结果	结算日	来源
BTC	—	失误	2026-09-01	研报 →
BTC	—	命中	2026-08-27	研报 →
BTC	—	命中	2026-08-26	研报 →
BTC	—	命中	2026-08-22	研报 →

回测记录

命中率: 18% 5 中 · 22 错 · n=27

从存档帖子事后结算——喊单当时已在公开记录里,但我们并未实时盯着它。单独成线,永不与上方前瞻命中率合算。

币种	叫单	结果	结算日	来源
BTC 回测	—	失误	2026-08-18	研报 →
BTC 回测	>= $112000	命中	2026-08-18	研报 →
BTC 回测	>= $131000	失误	2026-08-18	研报 →
BTC 回测	>= $88700	命中	2026-08-18	研报 →
BTC 回测	>= $90000	失误	2026-08-18	研报 →
BTC 回测	>= $84500	命中	2026-08-18	研报 →
ETH 回测	—	命中	2026-08-18	研报 →
ETH 回测	>= $740000	失误	2026-08-18	研报 →
ETH 回测	> $2600	失误	2026-08-18	研报 →
XRP 回测	—	失误	2026-08-18	研报 →
SOL 回测	—	失误	2026-08-18	研报 →
BTC 回测	—	失误	2026-08-17	研报 →
ETH 回测	—	失误	2026-08-17	研报 →
XRP 回测	—	命中	2026-08-17	研报 →
SOL 回测	—	失误	2026-08-17	研报 →
BTC 回测	>= $100000	失误	2026-08-16	研报 →
BTC 回测	> $93000	失误	2026-08-01	研报 →
BTC 回测	>= $100000	失误	2026-08-01	研报 →
BTC 回测	> $90300	失误	2026-08-01	研报 →
BTC 回测	>= $93000	失误	2026-08-01	研报 →
BTC 回测	> $90000	失误	2026-08-01	研报 →
BTC 回测	>= $155000	失误	2026-07-31	研报 →
SOL 回测	>= $600	失误	2026-07-31	研报 →
BTC 回测	>= $150000	失误	2026-07-30	研报 →
BTC 回测	>= $118400	失误	2026-07-30	研报 →
ETH 回测	>= $10000	失误	2026-07-30	研报 →
BTC 回测	<= $60000	失误	2026-07-28	研报 →