@scottmelker — settled call record
✓ Source check: 0 unavailable · 2/2 covered · last sweep 2026-08-31
Rate rule: kol_directional_v1 — read the full rule →
95% CI [9.5% – 90.5%] · Wilson 95% interval — where the true rate likely sits.
Last settled 2026-08-28 (3d ago)
Small sample — the interval is wide and the number will move.
BTC, ETH
What @scottmelker has been sayingmarket commentator
- Cites crypto-friendly regulation by US officials and agencies as a major ongoing driver for the market. source ↗
- Points to short liquidations and ETF inflows as evidence that market sentiment has flipped to bullish. source ↗
- Warns that trying to time the market by selling to buy back lower is a dangerous strategy. source ↗
- Tracks the actions of major players like Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase as proxies for sector health. source ↗
AI-distilled — our read of 200 public posts from the last 30 days, not their words. Every line links to the original so you can check us.
Follow the calls, or just hold BTC?
2 live · 20 backtested — never merged into one number.
These dollar figures are carried by backtests — hypothetical performance from applying the same rule to past statements, not a live track record. Live records: 2 / 22.
Each call is an independent $100 position, closed after 7 days — no compounding, no fees, no slippage. How this is scored →
earliest computable hit: 2026-08-26T00:00:07.299551+00:00 · computable 1/1
By coin
By call
By window
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | ↑ Bullish | Ethereum almost outperformed Bitcoin by double, which I view as a massive bullish signal for the crypto market | MISS -1.8% | +7.9% | 2026-08-28T00:00:07.418835+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin Breaks HIGHER | HIT +21.3% | +21.3% | 2026-08-26T00:00:07.299551+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | This has always led to a test of the 200 MA below (red circles)... Every single time, price went on to test the 200 MA. | MISS +6.8% | +6.8% | 2026-08-18T23:00:14.733404+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | seems like a good long term buy. | MISS -1.2% | -1.2% | 2026-08-18T23:00:14.092937+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | We have a definitive breakdown below the 200 MA | MISS +1.5% | +1.5% | 2026-08-18T23:00:06.740304+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Ethereum isn’t far behind. | MISS -2.0% | -11.9% | 2026-08-18T22:30:11.176843+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin briefly entered it a couple of days ago before pulling back, and it’s already flirting with that zone again. | MISS -10.2% | -10.2% | 2026-08-18T22:30:11.147600+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SOL backtested | ↑ Bullish | Clearing resistance, the 50 and 200 MAs on the weekly. | MISS -1.2% | -1.5% | 2026-08-18T22:00:21.189250+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Clearing resistance, the 50 and 200 MAs on the weekly. | MISS -0.3% | -0.3% | 2026-08-18T22:00:21.161091+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Back at the 50 MA, now as resistance. | HIT -7.3% | -7.3% | 2026-08-18T22:00:08.939190+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Hard to find a more bullish chart than Ethereum Vs. Bitcoin. | HIT +15.5% | +16.3% | 2026-08-18T21:30:16.179090+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | This looks like it is just getting started. ETH should continue to outperform for a while. | MISS -5.6% | -9.7% | 2026-08-18T21:30:13.232329+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | My target for Bitcoin price this cycle is “forget cycles it’s going much higher over time.” | MISS -2.2% | -2.2% | 2026-08-18T21:30:10.339121+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SOL backtested | ↑ Bullish | Retesting key former resistance as support. | MISS -3.7% | -5.8% | 2026-08-18T21:30:08.656504+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | After 3 YEARS of bearish market structure, lower highs and lower lows, ETH has finally made a higher high against $BTC. | HIT +5.3% | +5.0% | 2026-08-18T21:30:04.348621+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SOL backtested | ↓ Bearish | Breaking support, retesting as resistance and dropping. Nothing on this chart looks good, both key MAs starting to curl down, both above price. | MISS +8.5% | +16.4% | 2026-08-18T20:30:33.051922+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | When the fog clears, the serious capital will be here. | MISS -7.7% | -2.3% | 2026-08-18T20:00:31.586931+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin is making it's first higher high since the all time high. On volume. Also above both the 50 and 200 MAs. And broke descending resistance. | MISS +0.9% | +0.9% | 2026-08-18T19:30:16.747710+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SOL backtested | ↑ Bullish | Regardless, nice bounce off of support with defined resistance to watch. | MISS -0.6% | -1.1% | 2026-08-18T19:30:12.905537+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | It’s only time now. | HIT +6.9% | +6.9% | 2026-08-18T19:30:04.172617+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Let’s all do that thing where we get extremely bullish at a major resistance. | MISS +1.9% | +1.9% | 2026-08-17T06:30:07.726538+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| SOL backtested | ↑ Bullish | I'm buying this. | MISS -5.7% | -17.0% | 2026-08-17T05:30:05.179478+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Graded under price_target_v1 — did the stated price target print? A different rule, never merged into the directional rate above.
| Coin | Call | Result | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | — | MISS | 2026-08-28 | verdict → |
| BTC | — | HIT | 2026-08-26 | verdict → |
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
| Coin | Call | Result | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $180000 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | >= $7500 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| SOL backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| SOL backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
Same ruler on both sides: kol_directional_v1 runs on identical parameters to settle_v1 — a 7-day window, a ±3% band, altcoins scored vs BTC and BTC vs USD. That is why the hit rate above and CoinVerdict's 64% can sit side by side. · How the two differ →
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Source: VeraMind settled-call ledger · only verified settlements, never open calls. · Chatter, recaps and "watching" posts never enter the ledger — only explicit calls are settled and counted.