@davthewave — settled call record
✓ Source check: 0 unavailable · 1/1 covered · last sweep 2026-09-02
Rate rule: kol_directional_v1 — read the full rule →
95% CI [0.0% – 79.3%] · Wilson 95% interval — where the true rate likely sits.
Last settled 2026-09-02 (0d ago)
Small sample — the interval is wide and the number will move.
BTC
Follow the calls, or just hold BTC?
1 live · 8 backtested — never merged into one number.
These dollar figures are carried by backtests — hypothetical performance from applying the same rule to past statements, not a live track record. Live records: 1 / 9.
Each call is an independent $100 position, closed after 7 days — no compounding, no fees, no slippage. How this is scored →
By coin
By call
By window
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ↑ Bullish | either the breakout shortly, or the development of something like a reverse h&s... which would make sense for a bottom | MISS -1.4% | -1.4% | 2026-09-02T00:00:05.171300+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | From recent developments in price, I think it fair to say that, in the shorter to medium-term, the tipping point from a bullish outlook to a bearish one has been reached. | HIT -4.2% | -4.2% | 2026-08-18T23:00:13.822142+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | - maintaining a multi-year upward technical channel, with price well-positioned within that channel | MISS -0.4% | -0.4% | 2026-08-18T21:00:06.199830+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | #btc resistance come support, a 50% real retracement of the recent move, the next level to watch. | HIT +6.8% | +6.8% | 2026-08-18T17:00:20.804273+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Technically, the road looks open for a move to that shorter-term target of 95K with shorter-term horizontal and longer-term diagonal resistances breaking, price currently atop of a multi-month upward channel. | MISS +2.4% | +2.4% | 2026-08-17T07:00:34.720779+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | #btc shorter-term upward channel holding. A run to the top of the channel here would have price halfway to the target... | MISS -0.1% | -0.1% | 2026-08-17T07:00:20.188094+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | #btc ascending triangle in the shorter-term lining up to meet resistance in the longer term... | HIT +5.3% | +5.3% | 2026-08-17T06:30:05.267517+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | #btc 2nd leg of correction looks to be underway with price back in the 70s range. | HIT -12.0% | -12.0% | 2026-08-17T05:30:04.714380+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | I'm think something like a continued correction to 70K makes some sense | HIT -25.7% | -25.7% | 2026-08-17T05:00:42.955453+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
Graded under price_target_v1 — did the stated price target print? A different rule, never merged into the directional rate above.
| Coin | Call | Result | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC backtested | — | HIT | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
Same ruler on both sides: kol_directional_v1 runs on identical parameters to settle_v1 — a 7-day window, a ±3% band, altcoins scored vs BTC and BTC vs USD. That is why the hit rate above and CoinVerdict's 64% can sit side by side. · How the two differ →
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Source: VeraMind settled-call ledger · only verified settlements, never open calls. · Chatter, recaps and "watching" posts never enter the ledger — only explicit calls are settled and counted.