@benjamincowen — settled call record
✓ Source check: 0 unavailable · 1/1 covered · last sweep 2026-08-31
Rate rule: kol_directional_v1 — read the full rule →
95% CI [0.0% – 79.3%] · Wilson 95% interval — where the true rate likely sits.
Last settled 2026-08-25 (6d ago)
Small sample — the interval is wide and the number will move.
BTC
What @benjamincowen has been sayingcycle analyst
- Believes Bitcoin is historically weak during midterm years and expects a final bottom later in Q4. source ↗
- Uses the 200-week moving average and historical day counts to track cycle progression. source ↗
- Dismisses the idea that rate cuts automatically help, arguing they can drive long-term yields higher. source ↗
- Observes that Bitcoin often struggles while traditional markets hit new highs in election years. source ↗
AI-distilled — our read of 82 public posts from the last 30 days, not their words. Every line links to the original so you can check us.
Follow the calls, or just hold BTC?
1 live · 12 backtested — never merged into one number.
These dollar figures are carried by backtests — hypothetical performance from applying the same rule to past statements, not a live track record. Live records: 1 / 13.
Each call is an independent $100 position, closed after 7 days — no compounding, no fees, no slippage. How this is scored →
By coin
By call
By window
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ↓ Bearish | Base case into Q4 is a midterm correction... | MISS +22.4% | +22.4% | 2026-08-25T00:00:06.345424+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | I said it would drop 30% which would be around $3500. | MISS +1.7% | -2.6% | 2026-08-18T23:00:13.876963+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | BTC Bull market support band | MISS -7.6% | -7.6% | 2026-08-18T22:30:09.879789+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | → Sideways | September was just the month of holding the bull market support band (2 weeks up, 2 weeks down) | HIT +0.9% | +0.9% | 2026-08-18T22:30:06.966591+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | → Sideways | #Bitcoin still holding strong on the bull market support band almost halfway through September | HIT -0.3% | -0.3% | 2026-08-18T22:00:21.111391+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | I think ETH will drop back to its 21W EMA. | MISS -2.7% | -0.2% | 2026-08-18T22:00:14.080256+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | I said ETH was going to the regression band (home) even when the price was going up in the short-term. | MISS -2.8% | -6.4% | 2026-08-18T21:30:10.971661+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Structurally, the market typically gets one final countertrend rally sometime in the summer before the final low occurs later in the year. | HIT +5.2% | +5.2% | 2026-08-17T10:00:07.570218+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | The cycle keeps playing out. It makes the bulls look like fools because the market trends up for so long, only to wipe out all of the gains in a very short period. It makes the bears look like fools because the market spends a lot of time trending up, before breaking down quickly. | HIT -4.5% | -4.5% | 2026-08-17T09:30:03.539492+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | By adding the 2021 data it aggressively pulls down the upper tail. | HIT -17.6% | -17.6% | 2026-08-17T08:30:04.016248+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↓ Bearish | Ethereum: Rejected off its Bear Market Resistance Band | MISS -0.7% | -5.8% | 2026-08-17T08:00:06.974003+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Bitcoin Rallies back to the Bear Market Resistance Band | MISS +0.0% | +0.0% | 2026-08-17T06:30:12.165407+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Bitcoin: Bear Market Resistance Band | MISS +5.3% | +5.3% | 2026-08-17T06:30:05.291556+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Historically, the most ferocious rallies occur in bear markets. | MISS -2.4% | -2.4% | 2026-08-17T05:30:11.636630+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Bitcoin printed a macro lower high just below $100k, and right at the bull market support band (now bear market resistance band). | HIT -25.7% | -25.7% | 2026-08-17T05:00:43.546958+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Graded under price_target_v1 — did the stated price target print? A different rule, never merged into the directional rate above.
| Coin | Call | Result | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | — | MISS | 2026-08-25 | verdict → |
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
| Coin | Call | Result | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | >= $4878.26 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | — | HIT | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
Same ruler on both sides: kol_directional_v1 runs on identical parameters to settle_v1 — a 7-day window, a ±3% band, altcoins scored vs BTC and BTC vs USD. That is why the hit rate above and CoinVerdict's 64% can sit side by side. · How the two differ →
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Source: VeraMind settled-call ledger · only verified settlements, never open calls. · Chatter, recaps and "watching" posts never enter the ledger — only explicit calls are settled and counted.