@DonAlt — settled call record
✓ Source check: 0 unavailable · 3/3 covered · last sweep 2026-08-31
Rate rule: kol_directional_v1 — read the full rule →
95% CI [6.1% – 79.2%] · Wilson 95% interval — where the true rate likely sits.
Last settled 2026-08-30 (1d ago)
Small sample — the interval is wide and the number will move.
BTC, ETH
Follow the calls, or just hold BTC?
3 live · 4 backtested — never merged into one number.
Each call is an independent $100 position, closed after 7 days — no compounding, no fees, no slippage. How this is scored →
earliest computable hit: 2026-08-21T00:00:06.597661+00:00 · computable 1/1
By coin
By call
By window
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ↑ Bullish | Woke up to another stupidly bullish looking day | MISS +1.5% | +1.5% | 2026-08-30T00:00:09.623311+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH | ↑ Bullish | Next resistance $4k | MISS -2.3% | -2.9% | 2026-08-29T00:00:10.081961+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH | ↑ Bullish | Bought some and will buy some more in the coming days | HIT +7.3% | +23.4% | 2026-08-21T00:00:06.597661+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | I think I will err on the side of bullishness until the monthly close at least | HIT +3.3% | +3.3% | 2026-08-18T23:00:15.644761+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | I wouldn't take a fresh short from 130 to 120 so why would I hold my shorts all the way down if I see some strength come in? | HIT -6.0% | -6.0% | 2026-08-18T23:00:14.016238+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | Not expecting much though, ATH is in sight, deserved, and this resistance is trash | HIT +5.3% | +5.0% | 2026-08-18T21:30:04.918612+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | → Sideways | Seems kind of alright to me Not bad, not great | MISS +7.5% | +7.5% | 2026-08-17T07:00:21.765084+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Is support nonetheless so probably some relief there | MISS -9.1% | -9.1% | 2026-08-17T05:30:07.903820+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Graded under price_target_v1 — did the stated price target print? A different rule, never merged into the directional rate above.
| Coin | Call | Result | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | — | MISS | 2026-08-30 | verdict → |
| ETH | — | MISS | 2026-08-29 | verdict → |
| ETH | — | HIT | 2026-08-21 | verdict → |
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
| Coin | Call | Result | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC backtested | — | HIT | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | > $94000 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | > $92000 | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | — | HIT | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
Same ruler on both sides: kol_directional_v1 runs on identical parameters to settle_v1 — a 7-day window, a ±3% band, altcoins scored vs BTC and BTC vs USD. That is why the hit rate above and CoinVerdict's 64% can sit side by side. · How the two differ →
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Source: VeraMind settled-call ledger · only verified settlements, never open calls. · Chatter, recaps and "watching" posts never enter the ledger — only explicit calls are settled and counted.