AR / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
AR trades at $1.902 with RSI 45.4 and a bearish moving-average structure
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-23 00:35 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A+
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-28 — Overweight — +22.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-27 — Overweight — +21.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -10.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-24 — Neutral — -4.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -4.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Overweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Underweight — +4.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — +2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — +1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — -1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — -2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +4.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — +2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — +1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -4.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-25 — Underweight — -3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -6.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — -1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — -2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -6.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Neutral — -6.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained break above the $2.677 60-day high overturns the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $1.74 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, you’re calling a stalled descent a launchpad.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, you’re calling a stalled descent a launchpad. Key support to defend sits near $1.74. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
Mara, your strongest number is the 13.1% discount to the SMA200, but that’s a lagging wreckage report, not a fresh sell signal. RSI at 45.4 is far from exhaustion, and the MACD histogram is contracting; the downside engine is losing torque while AR sits only 9.3% above the $1.74 floor.
Leo, you’re calling a stalled descent a launchpad. AR is below every cited moving average, down 5.2% over 30 days and 29.0% beneath the $2.677 60-day high; an RSI of 45.4 confirms room to fall, not a reversal.
· oversold bounce from $1.74
· long-account liquidation
· unexpected AR-specific catalyst
Invalidation: A sustained break above the $2.677 60-day high overturns the bearish ruling.
Mara, the 60-day low at $1.74 is the exhibit you keep stepping around. With RSI at 45.4 and MACD contraction, sellers haven’t produced acceleration.
Leo, $1.74 is 9.3% lower—that’s meaningful air, not a cushion. Price at $1.902 remains 2.7% below SMA20 and 3.1% below SMA50, so every bounce meets overhead supply.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the 60-day low at $1.74 is the exhibit you keep stepping around. With RSI at 45.4 and MACD contraction, sellers haven’t produced acceleration.
Leo, $1.74 is 9.3% lower—that’s meaningful air, not a cushion. Price at $1.902 remains 2.7% below SMA20 and 3.1% below SMA50, so every bounce meets overhead supply.
Leo, fear at 31 would matter more if positioning were cleansed. Instead, 51.1% of accounts are long, the L/S ratio is 1.04, and takers buy at just 0.88 versus sells—modest bearish pressure with longs still available to unwind.
Both of you are ignoring the regime: the token is 13.1% under SMA200 and 29.0% below its 60-day high. Without a liquidity catalyst in the pack, mean reversion is just hopium wearing a spreadsheet.
I rule for the bears, and the single decisive exhibit is AR’s price 13.1% below the SMA200 while the 50/200 structure remains bearish by 10.4%. The main risk is crowded residual longs accelerating the drop toward $1.74; I overturn this ruling on a sustained break above $2.677.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
AR sits 2.7% below its SMA20, 3.1% below its SMA50, and 13.1% below its SMA200. I’m watching $1.74 as the 60-day floor; the contracting MACD histogram at -0.004137 offers no credible reversal yet.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear&Greed is 31, but the crowd isn’t washed out: 51.1% of long accounts remain long and taker buy/sell is only 0.88. That’s defensive sentiment with residual dip-buying—not the capitulation needed for a durable bounce.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The AR headline stream is dominated by speculative $6, $15, and $50 prediction pieces, not verified catalysts. Crypto Clarity Act debate is broader sector legislation and supplies no AR-specific demand impulse.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The pack provides no current Arweave usage, revenue, token-supply, or network-growth metrics. I won’t build a fundamental bull case from promotional price targets.
d08701146e59b7bc3d4d9c88bb38a539bbb40e67df002f31cbfa576fd1e2b0108624d818ee7811d0e765aa63f60423eb1e28fec5823b0c3f5024085df84084a2Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24