AR / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
AR trades at $1.757 with RSI 41.9 and remains 18.1% below its 60-day high
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-13 01:35 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +4.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — +2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — +1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -4.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-25 — Underweight — -3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -6.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — -1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — -2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -6.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Neutral — -6.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A daily close above $1.900 would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $1.68 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your +0.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your +0. Key support to defend sits near $1.68. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I concede the ugliest number: AR is 11.1% beneath SMA200 and down 11.3% over 30 days. But RSI at 41.9 is already bruised, the 60-day low is only 5.0% below at $1.675, and MACD remains positive at +0.0043—this could be stale damage, not fresh collapse. I also own the record: my August 5 underweight call was a PUSH at -1.5% versus BTC, and the July 30 underweight call was a LOSS at +4.6%; that history says AR can spring the trap when the chart looks most tired.
Leo, your +0.0043 MACD is a candle stub beside a full bearish moving-average structure: SMA50 is 5.0% below SMA200, and price is below every listed average. RSI 41.9 is merely weak, not capitulation, while takers buy at just 0.83 and 59.8% of accounts are long. The July 30 underweight LOSS at +4.6% versus BTC proves the pain trade exists, but it does not repair today's broken demand.
I think the bearish ruling leaves too much rebound room: AR is only 5.0% above $1.675, RSI is 41.9, and MACD is still +0.0043. The July 30 underweight LOSS at +4.6% versus BTC shows how quickly this coin can punish a crowded downside read.
The fastest failure is a break of $1.675, because the alleged nearby floor is the most fragile exhibit. With 59.8% long accounts, a taker buy/sell ratio of 0.83, and price 11.1% below SMA200, forced demand can evaporate rather than stabilize the tape.
Leo overreaches by treating RSI 41.9 and MACD +0.0043 as a reversal, while Mara overreaches if she assumes the 5.0% distance to $1.675 guarantees continuation. The deciding condition is whether AR holds $1.675 or reclaims $1.900.
· sharp rebound from the $1.675 low
· positive MACD turning upward
· crowded long accounts becoming dip demand
Invalidation: A daily close above $1.900 would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, the distance to $1.675 is only 5.0%, while reclaiming $2.147 would require 18.1%; the nearby floor gives the bounce case better asymmetry than your averages admit.
Leo, that 5.0% cushion is exactly the fragile exhibit: a break of $1.675 would confirm the trend, and your MACD positive reading is contracting rather than accelerating.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the distance to $1.675 is only 5.0%, while reclaiming $2.147 would require 18.1%; the nearby floor gives the bounce case better asymmetry than your averages admit.
Leo, that 5.0% cushion is exactly the fragile exhibit: a break of $1.675 would confirm the trend, and your MACD positive reading is contracting rather than accelerating.
I’m with Mara on the tape: a 0.83 taker buy/sell ratio alongside 59.8% long accounts says dip demand is not winning. Fear at 29 can become fuel only after the crowd stops leaning long.
Theo’s flow point matters because the broader tape offers no AR catalyst. With AR down 2.0% in seven days and 11.3% in 30, macro liquidity has not delivered the rescue Leo needs.
I rule for the bearish side: underweight is the stronger call. The decisive exhibit is the combination of price 11.1% below SMA200 and taker buy/sell at 0.83, which outweighs the small positive MACD histogram. This ruling differs from the recent August 5 PUSH and July 30 LOSS because the current pack shows a fully bearish SMA50/SMA200 structure plus long-heavy, weak-buying flow; a daily close above $1.900 would invalidate it.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
The chart is bearish: AR sits 1.5% below SMA20, 6.4% below SMA50, and 11.1% below SMA200, while SMA50 trails SMA200 by 5.0%. RSI at 41.9 is not washed out, and the contracting +0.0043 MACD histogram offers only a weak stabilization attempt.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear&Greed is 29, but fear has not cleared the crowd: long accounts still hold 59.8% with a 1.49 long/short ratio, while taker buy/sell is only 0.83. That is a bearish demand-and-positioning mismatch, with no StockTwits sample available to offset it.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The supplied AR-specific headlines are conversion pages, not catalysts. Broader headlines about faulty prediction-market filings and Securitize's 20% earnings-driven decline offer no direct Arweave thesis.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The pack supplies no Arweave-specific revenue, adoption, token-supply, or network-usage figures. Fundamental conviction is therefore limited, while the available market structure shows 30-day performance of -11.3%.
f5f88d8d18b1c5dde6e48fffdf36e996d63d4ea2d2e281ac2acb02b307980391Not yet committed. Today's rulings are hashed into the chain after the daily run — until then this report has a fingerprint but no chain entry. · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-12 · 2026-08-11 · 2026-08-10 · 2026-08-09 · 2026-08-08 · 2026-08-07 · 2026-08-06 · 2026-08-05