AR / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
AR sits at $1.865, with RSI 41.9 and momentum still leaning lower
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-20 07:38 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-28 — Overweight — +22.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-27 — Overweight — +21.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -10.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-24 — Neutral — -4.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -4.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Overweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — +4.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — +2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — +1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — -1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +4.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -4.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -4.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -6.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Underweight — -3.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -6.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -6.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained break above $2.00 with RSI above 50.. Cautious read: a break below $1.74 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your $1.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your $1. Key support to defend sits near $1.74. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number: AR is 16.0% below SMA200 and the MACD histogram sits at -0.008732. But RSI at 41.9 isn’t capitulation, and Fear&Greed at 29 means the crowd is already hiding under the table; with the 60-day low only 7.2% below at $1.74, the bad news looks increasingly priced in.
Leo, your $1.74 proximity is precisely the trap: a nearby floor is not a confirmed reversal. AR is below SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200, the MACD is expanding negatively, and the 30-day loss is -8.1%—that is a live downtrend, not stale pain.
· oversold rebound from $1.74
· broader crypto-market recovery
· short squeeze despite unconfirmed funding
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained break above $2.00 with RSI above 50.
Mara, you’re treating a 41.9 RSI like a death certificate. The 60-day low is $1.74, so the risk-reward improves if sellers can’t break that level.
Leo, support without a higher low is just a target painted on the floor. AR’s latest range reached only $1.906 before closing at $1.865, while the trend remains below the major averages.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating a 41.9 RSI like a death certificate. The 60-day low is $1.74, so the risk-reward improves if sellers can’t break that level.
Leo, support without a higher low is just a target painted on the floor. AR’s latest range reached only $1.906 before closing at $1.865, while the trend remains below the major averages.
I’m siding with the tape, Leo: long accounts are just 48.0%, L/S is 0.92, and taker flow is 0.95. There’s no crowded-long washout to fuel a squeeze, and funding isn’t provided to rescue that thesis.
The macro backdrop is hostile: Bitcoin is under $64,000 as oil bounces and the AI selloff lingers. Until liquidity improves, AR’s 30-day decline of -8.1% makes it a weak passenger in a weak convoy.
I award the bear side the ruling, and the decisive exhibit is the expanding -0.008732 MACD histogram alongside AR trading 16.0% below SMA200. I would overturn this verdict only if AR reclaims and holds above $2.00 with RSI recovering above 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
The chart is below every major trend anchor: AR is 5.2% under SMA20, 6.1% under SMA50, and 16.0% under SMA200. MACD histogram is -0.008732 and expanding, while the bearish SMA50/SMA200 structure keeps rallies technically suspect.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear&Greed is 29, and only 48.0% of long accounts are exposed, with an L/S ratio of 0.92. That is defensive rather than euphoric, but taker buy/sell at 0.95 shows sellers still have the immediate flow advantage.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The headline tape is dominated by Bitcoin below $64,000, an oil bounce, and an AI-driven selloff. AR-specific coverage is mostly price-prediction content, so there is no concrete positive catalyst in this data pack to counter the broader risk-off tone.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The data pack provides no operating, adoption, revenue, or token-economics figures for Arweave. Price-prediction headlines mention targets as high as $6 and $50, but those are narratives, not fundamental evidence.
b7a98825cccc38a82c0e190df906aedd56173bb4850833ed22fd4c4b7d79592abb295d7aae9e558a346e804945fde08e4613bfb70347c2a2bf2fe08f555e4fc6Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24