PENGU / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
PENGU at $0.006277 is trapped beneath a bearish long-term trend
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-22 09:43 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Overweight — -12.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-24 — Overweight — -9.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Neutral — +6.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-22 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Overweight — +14.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Overweight — +28.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — +14.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Neutral — +3.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Neutral — -5.5% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Overweight — -1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — +4.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — +5.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — +2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +6.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — +5.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — +5.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — +1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +4.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — +2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — +3.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -4.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is overturned by a sustained break above $0.009246 with RSI(14) above 60.. Cautious read: a break below $0.005554 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your spring is sitting under a 17.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your spring is sitting under a 17. Key support to defend sits near $0.005554. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number, Mara: PENGU sits 19.7% under SMA200 and the 60-day high is 32.1% away. But the immediate tape is trying to turn—MACD histogram is expanding at +5.383e-05, price is 0.3% above SMA20, and the 60-day low is only 13.0% below us; that’s a coiled spring, not a fresh collapse.
Leo, your spring is sitting under a 17.8% SMA50-versus-SMA200 death gap, and you’re calling a 0.3% SMA20 reclaim a reversal. RSI at 49.4 is nowhere near washed out, while the 30-day return is still -4.4%; the MACD uptick is just a small green flare in a long downtrend.
· ETF review catalyst
· Target-store adoption momentum
· Short-term MACD rebound
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is overturned by a sustained break above $0.009246 with RSI(14) above 60.
Mara, Fear & Greed at 33 means the crowd already hates this trade. A move back through $0.006374 would force sidelined buyers to chase a setup they dismissed.
Leo, the crowd isn’t cleanly washed out—55.2% of long accounts and a 1.23 L/S ratio show plenty of hopium still aboard. If $0.006189 breaks, those longs become the fuel for the next leg down.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, Fear & Greed at 33 means the crowd already hates this trade. A move back through $0.006374 would force sidelined buyers to chase a setup they dismissed.
Leo, the crowd isn’t cleanly washed out—55.2% of long accounts and a 1.23 L/S ratio show plenty of hopium still aboard. If $0.006189 breaks, those longs become the fuel for the next leg down.
Leo’s squeeze case has a positioning problem: taker buy/sell is 0.97, so aggressive flow still leans sell-side. Funding is unavailable, but the observable account mix is not bullish enough to validate a squeeze.
I’m with Mara on regime: Bitcoin below $66,000 makes speculative beta a poor place to demand a miracle. Brand headlines may glitter, but liquidity decides whether PENGU can reclaim $0.009246.
I award the bear side, and the decisive exhibit is the 17.8% bearish SMA50–SMA200 spread reinforced by price sitting 19.7% below SMA200. The upside case needs a break of $0.006374, but my ruling is invalidated by a sustained move above $0.009246 or an RSI(14) reading above 60 accompanied by that breakout.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
The chart is bearish beneath the surface: price sits 19.7% below SMA200, while SMA50 trails SMA200 by 17.8%. MACD histogram is expanding at +5.383e-05, but RSI 49.4 and the 30-day loss of 4.4% argue for a rebound attempt inside a damaged structure.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear & Greed is 33, and taker buy/sell at 0.97 shows sellers still have the slight edge. Long accounts lead at 55.2% with a 1.23 L/S ratio, leaving the crowd positioned vulnerably rather than capitulated.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The ETF review extension is a potential catalyst, while plushies reaching more than 1,800 Target stores supports mainstream visibility. But price-prediction headlines are promotional noise, and broader tape pressure includes Bitcoin below $66,000.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Retail distribution into over 1,800 Target stores is a tangible adoption signal for the Pudgy Penguins brand. The data pack provides no token-supply, revenue, unlock, or valuation figures, so that brand traction cannot outweigh the chart’s weak long-term trend.
5f1969412ced8133bf81229a3d5a9ea419f52cf987d5f0f3202b69b6d11c5561d60befb007b8b2c9bb2f3e860a595495bb4427a42c1d8f8851947ca5b9c4caf9Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 98 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23