XTZ / 研报
呈现档位 = 立场 × 裁判信心度。结算口径永远是三档。
XTZ’s 6.77% daily surge meets a bearish -31.4% gap to the 200-day SMA
⚖ 成文时间 2026-08-20 03:08 UTC
技术面信号强度
看空
C
市场情绪信号强度
看空
C
资金费率费率压力——评级是风险,不是方向
多头支付
A
KOL 共识结算档案质量
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档案积累中
各维评级口径独立,刻意不做平均。
2026-08-24 — 减持 — -6.5% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-23 — 减持 — -5.5% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-21 — 中性 — -7.1% — 出带 ✗ 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-20 — 减持 — -7.3% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-19 — 减持 — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — 减持 — -4.6% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-15 — 减持 — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — 减持 — -2.1% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-13 — 减持 — +0.4% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-12 — 减持 — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — 减持 — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — 减持 — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — 减持 — -1.7% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-08 — 减持 — +0.5% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-07 — 减持 — -0.4% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-06 — 减持 — +0.7% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-05 — 减持 — -0.3% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-04 — 减持 — -0.0% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-03 — 减持 — -1.3% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-02 — 减持 — -0.1% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-01 — 减持 — -2.9% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-31 — 减持 — -3.2% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-30 — 减持 — -5.7% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-29 — 减持 — -4.0% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-28 — 减持 — -3.5% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-27 — 减持 — -7.7% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-26 — 减持 — -8.5% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-24 — 中性 — -12.8% — 出带 ✗ 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-23 — 减持 — -5.8% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-22 — 减持 — -6.5% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
按 settle_v1 结算,7天 vs BTC——失误同样在档 · 完整结算档案 →
coin_evidence_v1 · 判读规则
生成时刻快照,由交易所数据计算——事实,非观点 · 价格 = 5 家交易所中位数
失效条件:The bearish ruling is overturned by a sustained break above the 60-day high at 0.2699.。 保守读法:跌破 $0.1907 即本研报失效。 信心 中,不确定时观望。 空方核心:Leo, the reversal argument collapses against the level he’s celebrating: XTZ is still 0.
平衡读法:下方裁定即基准情形。 方向 看空,时限 波段(数周)。
激进情形:Leo, the reversal argument collapses against the level he’s celebrating: XTZ is still 0. 需守住的关键支撑在 $0.1907 附近。 时限:波段(数周)。
同一研报的三种风险读法 · 内容全部来自当日存档数据。
I’ll concede the ugly number: XTZ sits 31.4% below its 200-day SMA and the 50/200-day structure is decisively bearish. But price is sprinting above its 20-day SMA by 7.0%, MACD is expanding at +0.002846, and the coin has gained 9.1% in seven days; that’s a live reversal attempt, not stale wreckage.
Leo, the reversal argument collapses against the level he’s celebrating: XTZ is still 0.9% below SMA50 and 20.6% beneath the 60-day high of 0.2699. RSI at 58.5 is merely mid-range, while the 30-day return remains -6.1%; a green week inside a damaged trend is exactly how hopium gets manufactured.
· Short-term momentum acceleration
· Bitcoin-led crypto beta
· RSI 58.5 and expanding MACD
推翻条件: The bearish ruling is overturned by a sustained break above the 60-day high at 0.2699.
Mara, the tape has already lifted from the 60-day low of 0.1907 to 0.2146, a 12.4% rebound. You’re treating the rear-view mirror as a forecast.
Leo, that 12.4% rebound still leaves price 20.6% under 0.2699, and SMA50 remains below SMA200 by 30.8%. A bounce has to clear the damaged structure before it earns the word reversal.
▶ Live Debate · 完整交锋(4)
Mara, the tape has already lifted from the 60-day low of 0.1907 to 0.2146, a 12.4% rebound. You’re treating the rear-view mirror as a forecast.
Leo, that 12.4% rebound still leaves price 20.6% under 0.2699, and SMA50 remains below SMA200 by 30.8%. A bounce has to clear the damaged structure before it earns the word reversal.
I’m with Mara on crowding: 62.9% of long accounts and a 1.70 L/S ratio lean optimistic, but taker buy/sell at 1.03 shows only modest urgency. The crowd is leaning bullish without delivering overwhelming flow.
Bitcoin touching $70,000 helps the backdrop, but XTZ’s -31.4% distance from SMA200 says liquidity has not repaired this chart. A macro tailwind can lift the boat while leaving the weakest hull underwater.
I rule for the bearish side: XTZ’s -31.4% distance below the 200-day SMA is the decisive exhibit, outweighing the +9.1% seven-day burst. The ruling is invalidated by a sustained move above the 60-day high at 0.2699, or by a clear momentum failure signaled by RSI(14) falling below 50 while price loses 0.1907.
观点是 AI;结算是事实。 · data powered by VeraMind
技术分析师(Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: momentum, moving-average structure, key levels. Conflicts: RSI(14) is 58.5, MACD histogram is expanding at +0.002846, and 7-day performance is +9.1%, but price remains 0.9% below SMA50 and 31.4% below SMA200. Sufficiency: adequate.
情绪分析师(Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: greed gauge, account positioning, taker flow, social balance. Conflicts: Fear & Greed is 62 and long accounts lead at 62.9% with an L/S ratio of 1.70, while taker flow is only 1.03 and StockTwits is split 1 bullish/1 bearish among four messages. Sufficiency: adequate.
宏观新闻分析师(Ed Walsh)
Direction: neutral. The supplied XTZ headlines are mostly evergreen explainers, price forecasts, conversion content, and a Manchester United–Tezos partnership reference. The broader Bitcoin move to $70,000 may support crypto beta, but the pack provides no fresh XTZ-specific catalyst or quantified impact.
基本面分析师(Priya Anand)
Direction: neutral. The pack provides no supply, staking, revenue, adoption, or valuation figures for Tezos. The Manchester United multi-year deal is a real ecosystem reference, but its financial contribution is not quantified here.
1fdfc441b45b0230ad048abbdb92e1fd769e8935088de2a11d4e6cb51eda82963c48fe76cfdb380303016b74f46003f8e487fa46e3f85434b095720b4f300a33已于 2026-08-21T00:20:00+00:00 承诺 · 当日共 88 篇判定 · 核验这条链
本篇研报入库原文的 SHA-256。它就是当日写进承诺链的那个值——你可以自己重算一遍比对。
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