XTZ / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
XTZ trades at $0.2065 with RSI 35.4, but the breakdown still points lower
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-28 02:32 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-09-01 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-31 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-30 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-29 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-28 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-27 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Neutral — -7.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -6.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Neutral — -7.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -4.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — +0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -1.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — -0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -0.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — -5.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — -4.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -7.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -8.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Neutral — -12.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -5.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -6.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: Bearishness is invalidated by a reclaim of $0.2250 accompanied by RSI above 50 and a positive MACD histogram.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1976 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your “washout” is a candle, not a reversal.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your “washout” is a candle, not a reversal. Key support to defend sits near $0.1976. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number, colleagues: XTZ is 41.9% below its SMA200 and down 7.149% in 24 hours. But RSI at 35.4 and price sitting just 4.1% above the 60-day low say the washout is already in the ring; with Fear&Greed at 29, the bad news is stale and a snapback can ignite from $0.1976.
Leo, your “washout” is a candle, not a reversal. The number that matters is the expanding -0.001453 MACD histogram alongside price 8.6% below SMA20 and 9.9% below SMA50; RSI 35.4 has not produced a higher low, so calling this priced-in is hopium wearing a prop-trader jacket.
· oversold rebound from $0.1976
· positive validator-growth catalyst
· broad crypto-market reversal
Invalidation: Bearishness is invalidated by a reclaim of $0.2250 accompanied by RSI above 50 and a positive MACD histogram.
Mara, the 60-day low is $0.1976, barely 4.1% below spot; a nearby floor can punish fresh shorts if RSI turns.
Leo, $0.1976 is support only until it breaks. Taker flow at 0.91 and a 7-day loss of 9.9% show sellers still own the tape.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the 60-day low is $0.1976, barely 4.1% below spot; a nearby floor can punish fresh shorts if RSI turns.
Leo, $0.1976 is support only until it breaks. Taker flow at 0.91 and a 7-day loss of 9.9% show sellers still own the tape.
Leo, I checked the positioning exhibit: longs are 49.6% and the L/S ratio is 0.98. There’s no lopsided long book here to fuel your squeeze thesis, and funding is not provided.
Mara’s right on regime: the broad crypto pullback and delayed Clarity Act leave liquidity looking stingy. A bounce from $0.1976 would be tactical relief, not evidence of a durable turn.
Mara and Dmitri win this case. My decisive exhibit is the expanding -0.001453 MACD histogram while XTZ remains 9.9% below SMA50 and taker buy/sell is 0.91. I overturn the bearish ruling only if XTZ reclaims $0.2250 with RSI above 50 and the MACD histogram turns positive.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Bearish. XTZ sits 8.6% below SMA20, 9.9% below SMA50, and 41.9% below SMA200; the SMA50 is 35.5% beneath the SMA200. RSI at 35.4 is weak rather than deeply washed out, while MACD histogram at -0.001453 is expanding. Direction: bearish; evidence families: moving averages, momentum, support/resistance; conflicts: RSI is near oversold and price is only 4.1% above the 60-day low; sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Bearish. Fear&Greed at 29 and a 0.91 taker buy/sell ratio show defensive crowd behavior, while longs are only 49.6% and the L/S ratio is 0.98. That is fear without a crowded long setup to squeeze. Direction: bearish; evidence families: fear gauge, taker flow, account positioning; conflicts: positioning is close to balanced; sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: The headline tape is not offering XTZ a clean catalyst: the local news is dominated by staking explainers and a report of Tezos token purchases aimed at validator growth. The broader crypto pullback and the delayed U.S. Clarity Act keep the backdrop heavy; prediction-market litigation is peripheral to XTZ. News tone: bearish to neutral.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: Tezos staking and validator-growth interest are constructive adoption signals, but the data pack supplies no revenue, issuance, valuation, or network-usage figures to underwrite a fundamental re-rating. TenX’s reported $3.25 million purchase is a positive datapoint, not proof that the token’s structural demand has changed. Fundamental tone: neutral-positive, insufficient to offset the chart.
fe02d5e89770f9788f7a7f8c3bf4e04095202aa41cd16b55d900967f9b3461961b179784d8d4e946c4157221c78e88b8ad0a662850703693246f2e057ba3ed4fCommitted 2026-07-29T00:20:00+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24