XMR / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
XMR at $365.5 has rallied 13.9% in 30 days, but bearish moving-average structure still caps conviction
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-26 00:56 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Mixed
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Mixed
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-30 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +10.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-28 — Overweight — +14.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-27 — Neutral — +19.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Overweight — +15.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-24 — Overweight — +20.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Overweight — +2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Overweight — -9.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Overweight — -17.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Overweight — -9.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Overweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Overweight — +11.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Overweight — +8.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Overweight — +8.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Overweight — +9.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +8.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Overweight — +8.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Overweight — +5.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Overweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Overweight — +2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Neutral — +1.7% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Neutral — +3.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — +6.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — +7.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Neutral — +1.9% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Neutral — +1.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Neutral — +3.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Neutral — +0.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 3 exchanges
Invalidation: A decisive close above $429, the 60-day high, would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $291.90 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your 67.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, your 67. Key support to defend sits near $291.90. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
Mara, I’ll concede the ugliest number: XMR is still 1.7% below SMA200 and the SMA50 trails it by 11.2%. But price is above both SMA20 and SMA50, RSI is a forceful 67.2, and the coin has gained 8.5% in seven days and 13.9% in thirty—this looks like a recovery engine revving, not a corpse twitching.
Leo, your 67.2 RSI is exactly the number that punctures your case: the move is already hot, yet the MACD histogram is contracting at +3.976. A rally that cannot reclaim SMA200 while sitting 14.8% beneath the $429 60-day high is a rebound inside damaged structure, and calling it a new engine is hopium with headlights.
· fear-driven short squeeze
· privacy-coin adoption headlines
· rapid momentum continuation
Invalidation: A decisive close above $429, the 60-day high, would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, the crowd isn’t euphoric—Fear&Greed is only 26. A 13.9% monthly advance with fear still on the tape means the rally has room before exhaustion.
Leo, fear doesn’t pay the offer. Taker buy/sell is 0.96 and only 52.8% of accounts are long; the market is failing to generate aggressive buying where your breakout story needs it.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the crowd isn’t euphoric—Fear&Greed is only 26. A 13.9% monthly advance with fear still on the tape means the rally has room before exhaustion.
Leo, fear doesn’t pay the offer. Taker buy/sell is 0.96 and only 52.8% of accounts are long; the market is failing to generate aggressive buying where your breakout story needs it.
Leo, Mara’s flow point matters: the 1.12 long/short ratio is modest, not a crowded squeeze setup, and funding is absent, so there’s no verified positioning fuel behind the advance.
Mara has the regime read. XMR is 1.7% below SMA200 and its 50-day average is 11.2% under the 200-day; without a liquidity impulse, this is rotation until proven otherwise.
I award the winning side to the bears, and the decisive exhibit is the SMA50/SMA200 spread at -11.2%, reinforced by XMR remaining 1.7% below SMA200. My ruling is invalidated by a decisive close above the $429 60-day high, or by RSI holding above 70 while price sustains that breakout.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Short-term momentum is bullish: RSI(14) is 67.2, price is 8.2% above SMA20 and 10.7% above SMA50. The chart’s fault line is structural: price remains 1.7% below SMA200, while SMA50 sits 11.2% below SMA200; MACD histogram is positive at 3.976 but contracting.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Fear&Greed at 26 is a contrarian bullish backdrop, but positioning is only mildly long, with 52.8% long accounts and a 1.12 long/short ratio. Taker buy/sell at 0.96 shows sellers still have the immediate flow edge; funding data is unavailable.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: The news flow is supportive but mostly narrative-driven, with headlines citing technical breakouts, market rotation and renewed privacy-coin interest. Sberbank’s planned crypto-trading infrastructure is a broader adoption signal, while North Korean laundering arrests and the Steam malware case keep crypto’s regulatory and reputational overhang visible.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: Monero’s privacy proposition remains the core investment case, reflected in coverage framing financial privacy as worth defending. The data pack supplies no fresh supply, usage, revenue or valuation figures, so fundamentals cannot decisively justify a months-long bullish verdict.
d725124a857f37e79d59fceb396f0b6ed25f19c5903ab7969dd1f2b2ad16effeabe367d9f6473120ab57274a47b2717a285a90e3afdaff7e89e6c5e549a3ca83Committed 2026-07-27T00:20:00+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25