XMR / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
XMR’s +24.9% 30-day surge targets the $466.4 ceiling
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-25 02:12 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bullish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bullish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Overweight — +20.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-21 — Overweight — +2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Overweight — -9.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Overweight — -17.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Overweight — -9.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Overweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Overweight — +11.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Overweight — +8.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Overweight — +8.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Overweight — +9.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — +8.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Overweight — +8.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Overweight — +5.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Overweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Overweight — +2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Neutral — +1.7% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Neutral — +3.7% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — +6.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — +7.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Neutral — +1.9% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Neutral — +1.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Neutral — +3.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Neutral — +0.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 3 exchanges
Invalidation: A decisive close below $439.49 would overturn the bullish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $439.49 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo’s favorite number, the +24.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bullish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: I concede the two recent overweight calls lost decisively: August 14 returned -9. Resistance to clear sits near $466.40. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I concede the two recent overweight calls lost decisively: August 14 returned -9.2% versus BTC, and August 16 returned -17.6%. But today’s tape has a sturdier engine: XMR is 24.9% higher over 30 days, the MACD histogram is expanding at +2.056, and the bullish moving-average structure says those losses are stale damage, not a verdict on this setup.
Leo’s favorite number, the +24.9% monthly gain, is exactly the bait: price is already 8.9% above SMA20 and RSI is 69.6. The road to $466.4 offers only 5.2% upside, while Fear & Greed at 74 and 54.8% long accounts leave the rally vulnerable to another sharp unwind like the -17.6% August 16 loss.
I’m more bullish than the ruling: a 5.2% move reaches $466.4, and the +2.056 expanding MACD histogram could carry XMR through that ceiling if Bitcoin’s near-$80,000 strength persists. The recent -17.6% and -9.2% losses argue for a larger rebound gap, not a smaller one.
The fastest failure is a momentum snapback from RSI 69.6 while Fear & Greed sits at 74. The fragile exhibit is the bullish narrative built on +24.9% over 30 days; the August 16 overweight call already resolved at -17.6% versus BTC.
The aggressive desk overreaches on extrapolating MACD, while the conservative desk overweights the settled losses. The deciding condition is whether XMR holds the latest candle low at $439.49; holding preserves the bullish structure, while a break overturns it.
· RSI 69.6 and Fear & Greed 74
· Recent overweight losses of -9.2% and -17.6% versus BTC
· Bitcoin pullback near $80,000
Invalidation: A decisive close below $439.49 would overturn the bullish ruling.
Leo, you call the losses stale, but the market doesn’t honor expiration dates. A 69.6 RSI and a 5.2% gap to the 60-day high make your upside narrow and your air pocket obvious.
Mara, the chart isn’t merely extended: XMR is above SMA50 and SMA200 by 19.9% and 24.5%, with MACD acceleration. Your air pocket exists, but the trend has more evidence than the fear headline.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Leo, you call the losses stale, but the market doesn’t honor expiration dates. A 69.6 RSI and a 5.2% gap to the 60-day high make your upside narrow and your air pocket obvious.
Mara, the chart isn’t merely extended: XMR is above SMA50 and SMA200 by 19.9% and 24.5%, with MACD acceleration. Your air pocket exists, but the trend has more evidence than the fear headline.
I’ll puncture both stories: long accounts are only 54.8%, and taker buy/sell is 0.98, so the crowd isn’t in a euphoric one-way stampede. Funding is absent, meaning nobody can honestly claim funding-driven excess.
Theo, that missing funding exhibit cuts both ways. Bitcoin nearing $80,000 makes crypto liquidity supportive for now, but the next pullback is explicitly the macro test; XMR’s 5.2% distance from $466.4 leaves little room for a broad risk-off shock.
I rule bullish, with medium confidence, because the decisive exhibit is the expanding MACD histogram at +2.056 aligned with XMR’s +3.8% SMA50-over-SMA200 structure. This differs from the recent losing overweight calls because the current pack shows synchronized momentum across 7-day (+7.1%), 30-day (+24.9%), moving-average, and MACD measures, while crowding is not confirmed by funding. The ruling is invalidated by a decisive close below $439.49.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Bullish. RSI(14) is 69.6, price sits 8.9% above SMA20 and 19.9% above SMA50, while MACD histogram expands to +2.056. The main conflict is near-term heat versus a bullish SMA50/SMA200 structure (+3.8%); sufficiency is adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Bullish but crowded. Fear & Greed is 74, long accounts are 54.8% with an L/S ratio of 1.21, and StockTwits shows 3 bullish versus 0 bearish messages. Taker buy/sell at 0.98 offsets some enthusiasm; sufficiency is adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Headlines are noisy rather than thesis-changing: Monero appears in speculative $2,000 prediction and altcoin-promotion stories, while the CVE-2026-33017 cryptominer report is a security headline, not demonstrated protocol damage.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The pack offers no fresh token-economics, adoption, network-usage, or valuation evidence. The fundamental case is therefore headline-light and limited to Monero’s continued market relevance in the supplied coverage.
cd4cb45d6366c308406f6a6468244b739abbe54312fc80d31bdb27b5ce6bdcb214faabecdb7719003b4bda7de235e76e71170edaad505076d223f4a3b6d33cbeCommitted 2026-08-26T00:20:00+00:00 · 92 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-22