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XLM / The Verdict

generated 2026-07-15 00:16 UTC
$0.18
+1.66% · 24h
price as of 2026-07-15 00:16 UTC
Price source
📜 Archived verdict of 2026-07-15 — latest verdict → XLM
The Verdict
Underweight

XLM remains technically weak amid extreme market fear

⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-15 00:16 UTC

Technicalsignal strength Bearish C
Measures how strong the directional signal from price structure is. An analyst lists independent evidence families (trend, momentum, structure) from the data pack; code converts the count to a letter — 3+ families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicting evidence caps the grade at C; insufficient information gets no grade at all. The letter is signal strength — direction is shown separately. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Sentimentsignal strength Bearish C
Same scale as Technical, applied to crowd evidence — fear/greed, positioning, and flow. 3+ independent evidence families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicts cap at C; not enough information, no grade. The letter says how loud the crowd signal is, not which way price will go. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction Shorts pay A
Measures perpetual funding-rate pressure — risk, not direction. The smaller the 8-hour normalized rate, the calmer the market: under 0.5 bp = A+, then A, B, C, D as pressure grows, F beyond 10 bp (extreme crowding). Who pays (longs or shorts) is shown separately. Read A+ as “calm”, never as “bullish”. (funding_rule_v1) full scales →
KOL Consensussettled-record quality Archive building
Measures the quality and strength of on-record KOL consensus. Only authors with 20+ settled calls count. The majority share sets the base letter (85%+ = A+ down to 55%+ = D), but few qualified authors cap it — under 5 authors we show the direction and withhold the grade while the record builds. (kol_rule_v1) full scales →

Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.

Track record
11W–5L–14P · 7 neutral · since 2026-07-14
95% CI 44.4–85.8% · n=16 · early sample
2026-09-05 — Overweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-12
stance change · Underweight → Overweight
2026-09-01 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-08
stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-08-31 — Neutral · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-07
2026-08-30 — Neutral · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-06
stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-08-29 — Underweight — -2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-29 · XLM price $0.17921 · BTC $77872.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-09-05 · XLM price $0.178913 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
-2.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-08-28 — Neutral — -3.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-28 · XLM price $0.1871 · BTC $80168.1
Settled (T+8d)
2026-09-05 · XLM price $0.178913 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
-3.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Overweight → Neutral
2026-08-27 — Overweight — -3.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-27 · XLM price $0.18391 · BTC $78922
Settled (T+9d)
2026-09-05 · XLM price $0.178913 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
-3.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Overweight
2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
stance change · Overweight → Underweight
2026-08-25 — Overweight — -7.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-25 · XLM price $0.19406 · BTC $78968.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-09-01 · XLM price $0.17827 · BTC $78717.1
vs BTC
-7.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-24 — Overweight — -10.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-24 · XLM price $0.19683 · BTC $77645.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-31 · XLM price $0.1755 · BTC $77473.2
vs BTC
-10.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Overweight
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -10.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-23 · XLM price $0.1975 · BTC $77094.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-30 · XLM price $0.1802 · BTC $78171.7
vs BTC
-10.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Overweight → Underweight
2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Overweight — -6.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-21 · XLM price $0.18237 · BTC $73322.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-28 · XLM price $0.1871 · BTC $80168.1
vs BTC
-6.2% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-20 — Overweight — -5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-20 · XLM price $0.1716 · BTC $69631.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-27 · XLM price $0.18391 · BTC $78922
vs BTC
-5.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Overweight
2026-08-16 — Underweight — +2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-16 · XLM price $0.1576 · BTC $63070.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-23 · XLM price $0.1975 · BTC $77094.1
vs BTC
+2.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-14 · XLM price $0.1592 · BTC $63504.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-21 · XLM price $0.18237 · BTC $73322.8
vs BTC
-0.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-13 — Underweight — -2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-13 · XLM price $0.1601 · BTC $63588.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-20 · XLM price $0.1716 · BTC $69631.8
vs BTC
-2.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-12 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-12 · XLM price $0.1621 · BTC $63546
Settled (T+8d)
2026-08-20 · XLM price $0.1716 · BTC $69631.8
vs BTC
-3.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-11 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-11 · XLM price $0.1617 · BTC $63941.5
Settled (T+9d)
2026-08-20 · XLM price $0.1716 · BTC $69631.8
vs BTC
-2.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-09 · XLM price $0.16469 · BTC $64963.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-16 · XLM price $0.1576 · BTC $63070.5
vs BTC
-1.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-08 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-08 · XLM price $0.1615 · BTC $64896.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-15 · XLM price $0.158 · BTC $63021.6
vs BTC
+0.7% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-06 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-06 · XLM price $0.1649 · BTC $64604.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-13 · XLM price $0.1601 · BTC $63588.5
vs BTC
-1.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-05 — Underweight — -2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-05 · XLM price $0.16789 · BTC $64023.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-12 · XLM price $0.1621 · BTC $63546
vs BTC
-2.7% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-04 — Underweight — -6.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-04 · XLM price $0.17092 · BTC $63558.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-11 · XLM price $0.1617 · BTC $63941.5
vs BTC
-6.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-03 — Underweight — -8.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-03 · XLM price $0.174 · BTC $63435.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-10 · XLM price $0.16345 · BTC $65054
vs BTC
-8.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-02 — Underweight — -6.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-02 · XLM price $0.17108 · BTC $62914.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-09 · XLM price $0.16469 · BTC $64963.4
vs BTC
-6.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-01 — Underweight — -9.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-01 · XLM price $0.1724 · BTC $62954.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-08 · XLM price $0.1615 · BTC $64896.5
vs BTC
-9.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-31 — Underweight — -7.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-31 · XLM price $0.17118 · BTC $63805
Settled (T+8d)
2026-08-08 · XLM price $0.1615 · BTC $64896.5
vs BTC
-7.2% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-30 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-30 · XLM price $0.1721 · BTC $64044.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-06 · XLM price $0.1649 · BTC $64604.5
vs BTC
-5.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-29 — Underweight — -4.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-29 · XLM price $0.17536 · BTC $64051
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-05 · XLM price $0.16789 · BTC $64023.8
vs BTC
-4.2% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-28 — Underweight — -0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-28 · XLM price $0.172 · BTC $63644.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-04 · XLM price $0.17092 · BTC $63558.1
vs BTC
-0.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-27 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-27 · XLM price $0.1826 · BTC $65216
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-03 · XLM price $0.174 · BTC $63435.7
vs BTC
-2.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-26 — Underweight — -1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-26 · XLM price $0.1783 · BTC $64416
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-02 · XLM price $0.17108 · BTC $62914.5
vs BTC
-1.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-25 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-25 · XLM price $0.178 · BTC $64141.3
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-01 · XLM price $0.1724 · BTC $62954.5
vs BTC
-1.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-24 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-24 · XLM price $0.1816 · BTC $64928
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-31 · XLM price $0.17118 · BTC $64779.5
vs BTC
-5.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-07-23 — Neutral — -5.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-23 · XLM price $0.1873 · BTC $66209
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-30 · XLM price $0.1721 · BTC $64044.7
vs BTC
-5.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-22 — Neutral — -4.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-22 · XLM price $0.18953 · BTC $65937.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-29 · XLM price $0.17536 · BTC $64051
vs BTC
-4.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-21 — Neutral — -6.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-21 · XLM price $0.18804 · BTC $65161.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-28 · XLM price $0.172 · BTC $63644.6
vs BTC
-6.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-20 — Neutral — -3.3% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-20 · XLM price $0.18448 · BTC $63745.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-27 · XLM price $0.1826 · BTC $65216
vs BTC
-3.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-19 — Neutral — -3.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-19 · XLM price $0.18612 · BTC $64708.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-26 · XLM price $0.1783 · BTC $64416
vs BTC
-3.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -3.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-17 · XLM price $0.18425 · BTC $63739.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-24 · XLM price $0.1816 · BTC $64928
vs BTC
-3.2% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-07-16 — Neutral — -2.9% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-16 · XLM price $0.18864 · BTC $64777.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-23 · XLM price $0.1873 · BTC $66209
vs BTC
-2.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-07-15 — Underweight — +2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-15 · XLM price $0.18388 · BTC $65000.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-22 · XLM price $0.19282 · BTC $66588
vs BTC
+2.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight

graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →

The evidence
Bear evidence ✓ aligns with this verdict

coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read

Price
Price at verdict$0.18388 +1.7% 24h
60d high0.29786 -38.3%
60d low0.13885 +32.4%
RSI(14)45.6
30d change -13.9%

snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions

The Deliberation
LV
Bull Research (Leo Vance)
VS
MF
Bear Research (Mara Frost)
JA
Risk Committee · Final Ruling
Chief Adjudicator (Aldrich)
KOL Settlement Seat
Calls on record: 0 up · 0 down

Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind

Analyst notes
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)

XLM trades below its 20- and 50-period SMAs with negative RSI and MACD histogram, though MACD weakness is contracting.

Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)

Extreme Fear and a mildly short-leaning account balance indicate fragile sentiment, while taker flow is near neutral.

Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)

Headlines are mixed, with regulatory uncertainty and stablecoin competition weighing on the broader crypto backdrop.

Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)

No XLM-specific fundamental data was provided, so fundamentals cannot be confirmed.

Provenance
Report fingerprint
cffa882b36e5a7d829fd96096a74a73051a5816742e7b9f4fa20d5b8831a3c59
UTC date
2026-07-15
Chain head
fe6d19bbd0dec4d03a8b201098fd67ad3bf99835727f3053ccd256283e21cc8a

Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain

SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.

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