MKR / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
MKR prints $1,813.7 while RSI hits 100.0—but the chart data is internally broken
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-19 01:33 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Mixed
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Neutral
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
—
Insufficient data
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — +0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-21 — Underweight — -8.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Neutral — -11.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-15 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Neutral — -13.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -8.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Neutral — +3.0% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Overweight — +1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Overweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Overweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — -0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Neutral — -2.5% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Neutral — -3.2% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Overweight — -3.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Overweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Overweight — +0.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Neutral — +0.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Neutral — +2.8% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — +2.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-25 — Underweight — +1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Neutral — +0.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — +3.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-07-21 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-07-20 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-07-19 — Neutral — — — VOID
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 1 exchanges
Invalidation: A validated close below $1,650.1, or RSI below 70 while price remains beneath that level, overturns the neutral ruling toward bearish.. Cautious read: a break below $1,650.10 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that $1,813.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Neutral, horizon Days (momentum).
Bold case: Leo, that $1,813. Key support to defend sits near $1,650.10. Horizon: Days (momentum).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugliest number, Mara: RSI is 100.0, which usually screams overheated. But the tape is a cracked compass—the latest candle and every reported 60-day extreme sit at 1650.1, while the live price is $1,813.7; that makes the apparent overextension more likely a stale-data artifact than a clean reversal signal. The nominal bullish MA structure and 0.761% daily gain keep the upside case alive.
Leo, that $1,813.7 price is precisely why your artifact defense fails: it is 9.9% above the reported 60-day high of 1650, while RSI is already 100.0. You’re treating broken range data as a bullish catalyst, but the only live momentum evidence is an extreme oscillator with a contracting MACD histogram at -1.77e-34.
I see more upside than the ruling allows if $1,813.7 is the true live regime: the nominal bullish SMA50/SMA200 structure and +0.761% 24-hour move could support continuation, while Fear & Greed at 46 shows the crowd is not euphoric. The underpriced exhibit is a potential breakout beyond the stale 1650.1 range ceiling.
The fastest failure is an RSI reset from 100.0 paired with rejection of $1,813.7. The fragile exhibit is the entire price-history block: a latest candle fixed at 1650.1 and a 60-day high and low both fixed there cannot support precise bullish geometry.
Leo overreaches by treating nominal moving-average alignment as confirmation; Mara overreaches by treating a corrupted range as proof of a top. The deciding condition is whether independently validated price data confirms $1,813.7 above the 1650.1 reference, or instead restores a close below it; the settled record offers no directional wins or losses, only pushes and flats.
· RSI 100.0 reversal
· stale or corrupted price history
· unconfirmed positioning and funding
Invalidation: A validated close below $1,650.1, or RSI below 70 while price remains beneath that level, overturns the neutral ruling toward bearish.
Mara, the same pack says 24-hour momentum is still +0.761%, and SMA50 versus SMA200 is bullish. A zero MACD reading can mean compression before continuation, not automatic collapse.
Leo, compression without a valid price history is storytelling. Your support is 1650.1, yet the market is already at $1,813.7; that is not a nearby floor, it’s a 9.9% data gap.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the same pack says 24-hour momentum is still +0.761%, and SMA50 versus SMA200 is bullish. A zero MACD reading can mean compression before continuation, not automatic collapse.
Leo, compression without a valid price history is storytelling. Your support is 1650.1, yet the market is already at $1,813.7; that is not a nearby floor, it’s a 9.9% data gap.
I’m with Mara on the evidence standard: funding is unavailable, open interest is unavailable, and StockTwits records 0 messages. There’s no positioning tape to prove either crowded longs or a contrarian fear setup.
And the macro headlines are vapor, not liquidity evidence. Tokenized-stock policy talk and stablecoin accounting proposals do not explain why MKR is $163.6 above the reported 60-day high.
I rule neutral. The decisive exhibit is the contradiction between the live price of $1,813.7 and the frozen 60-day high, low, and latest candle at 1650.1; RSI 100.0 adds overheating risk, but the historical feed cannot establish a reliable reversal structure. This ruling is overturned if validated market data produces a confirmed close below $1,650.1, or if RSI falls below 70 while price remains below that level.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Neutral. RSI(14) is 100.0, but the latest 250-bar candle is frozen at 1650.1 and the 60-day range is also exactly 1650, making the reported structure unusable. MACD histogram is effectively zero at -1.77e-34, while moving-average alignment is nominally bullish.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Neutral. Fear & Greed is 46, signaling fear rather than exuberance, while StockTwits has 0 bullish and 0 bearish messages across 0 posts. There is no funding-rate or KOL evidence to confirm crowding.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: Neutral. Wallet-security headlines involve BitBox, SafePal, and Trezor, not Maker directly. Broader headlines around tokenized stocks and stablecoins being treated as cash equivalents are potentially supportive for crypto infrastructure, but they provide no direct MKR catalyst.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: Neutral. The data pack supplies no Maker-specific earnings, governance, supply, revenue, or protocol-usage figures. The stablecoin accounting proposal is sector-relevant, but it is not enough to establish a fundamental MKR repricing.
5a59b5d1271a48f8bd6e7d960888bdfb9eb5982bd6026429a37e40dced0166d50f1b74c5d5aa8bd9fe0e079b811d2482b9bd27566afea1ff19e554ca5230c439Committed 2026-08-20T00:20:00+00:00 · 73 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-23