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M / The Verdict

generated 2026-08-20 02:21 UTC
$1.21
+1.30% · 24h
price as of 2026-08-20 02:21 UTC
Price source
📜 Archived verdict of 2026-08-20 — latest verdict → M
The Verdict
Underweight

Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.

At $1.20865, the rebound is fighting a 43.4% SMA200 deficit

⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-20 02:21 UTC

Technicalsignal strength Bearish C
Measures how strong the directional signal from price structure is. An analyst lists independent evidence families (trend, momentum, structure) from the data pack; code converts the count to a letter — 3+ families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicting evidence caps the grade at C; insufficient information gets no grade at all. The letter is signal strength — direction is shown separately. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Sentimentsignal strength Bearish C
Same scale as Technical, applied to crowd evidence — fear/greed, positioning, and flow. 3+ independent evidence families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicts cap at C; not enough information, no grade. The letter says how loud the crowd signal is, not which way price will go. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction Longs pay B
Measures perpetual funding-rate pressure — risk, not direction. The smaller the 8-hour normalized rate, the calmer the market: under 0.5 bp = A+, then A, B, C, D as pressure grows, F beyond 10 bp (extreme crowding). Who pays (longs or shorts) is shown separately. Read A+ as “calm”, never as “bullish”. (funding_rule_v1) full scales →
KOL Consensussettled-record quality Archive building
Measures the quality and strength of on-record KOL consensus. Only authors with 20+ settled calls count. The majority share sets the base letter (85%+ = A+ down to 55%+ = D), but few qualified authors cap it — under 5 authors we show the direction and withhold the grade while the record builds. (kol_rule_v1) full scales →

Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.

Track record
10W–4L–10P · since 2026-07-22
95% CI 45.4–88.3% · n=14 · early sample
2026-08-31 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-07
2026-08-30 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-06
2026-08-29 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-05
2026-08-28 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-04
2026-08-27 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-03
2026-08-26 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-02
2026-08-25 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-01
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-24 · M price $1.11359 · BTC $77645.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-31 · M price $1.08228 · BTC $77473.2
vs BTC
-2.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-22 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-08-29
2026-08-21 — Underweight — -13.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-21 · M price $1.16597 · BTC $73322.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-28 · M price $1.10879 · BTC $80168.1
vs BTC
-13.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-20 — Underweight — -18.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-20 · M price $1.20865 · BTC $69631.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-27 · M price $1.11753 · BTC $78922
vs BTC
-18.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -18.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-16 · M price $1.10432 · BTC $63070.5
Settled (T+8d)
2026-08-24 · M price $1.11359 · BTC $77645.6
vs BTC
-18.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -11.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-14 · M price $1.14548 · BTC $63504.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-21 · M price $1.16597 · BTC $73322.8
vs BTC
-11.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-13 — Underweight — +1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-13 · M price $1.09283 · BTC $63588.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-20 · M price $1.20865 · BTC $69631.8
vs BTC
+1.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-09 · M price $1.13924 · BTC $64963.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-16 · M price $1.10432 · BTC $63070.5
vs BTC
-0.2% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-08 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-08 · M price $1.1496 · BTC $64896.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-15 · M price $1.10367 · BTC $63021.6
vs BTC
-1.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-07 — Underweight — +1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-07 · M price $1.13979 · BTC $64381
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-14 · M price $1.14548 · BTC $63504.5
vs BTC
+1.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-06 — Underweight — -7.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-06 · M price $1.20369 · BTC $64604.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-13 · M price $1.09283 · BTC $63588.5
vs BTC
-7.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-05 — Underweight — -5.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-05 · M price $1.16877 · BTC $64023.8
Settled (T+8d)
2026-08-13 · M price $1.09283 · BTC $63588.5
vs BTC
-5.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-04 — Underweight — -7.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-04 · M price $1.18364 · BTC $63558.1
Settled (T+9d)
2026-08-13 · M price $1.09283 · BTC $63588.5
vs BTC
-7.7% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-03 — Underweight — -8.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-03 · M price $1.19216 · BTC $63435.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-10 · M price $1.11455 · BTC $65054
vs BTC
-8.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-02 — Underweight — -0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-02 · M price $1.10751 · BTC $62914.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-09 · M price $1.13924 · BTC $64963.4
vs BTC
-0.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-01 — Underweight — +2.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-01 · M price $1.08378 · BTC $62954.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-08 · M price $1.1496 · BTC $64896.5
vs BTC
+2.9% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-31 — Underweight — +13.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-31 · M price $0.99332 · BTC $63805
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-07 · M price $1.13979 · BTC $64381
vs BTC
+13.7% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-30 — Underweight — +5.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-30 · M price $1.13061 · BTC $64044.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-06 · M price $1.20369 · BTC $64604.5
vs BTC
+5.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-29 — Underweight — +3.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-29 · M price $1.13489 · BTC $64051
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-05 · M price $1.16877 · BTC $64023.8
vs BTC
+3.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-28 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-28 · M price $1.17813 · BTC $63644.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-04 · M price $1.18364 · BTC $63558.1
vs BTC
+0.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-27 — Underweight — +0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-27 · M price $1.21927 · BTC $65216
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-03 · M price $1.19216 · BTC $63435.7
vs BTC
+0.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-26 — Underweight — -9.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-26 · M price $1.24722 · BTC $64416
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-02 · M price $1.10751 · BTC $62914.5
vs BTC
-9.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-24 — Underweight — -12.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-24 · M price $1.13905 · BTC $64928
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-31 · M price $0.99332 · BTC $64779.5
vs BTC
-12.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-23 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-23 · M price $1.12644 · BTC $66209
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-30 · M price $1.13061 · BTC $64044.7
vs BTC
+3.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-22 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-22 · M price $1.1801 · BTC $65937.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-29 · M price $1.13489 · BTC $64051
vs BTC
-1.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →

The evidence
Bull evidence
Bear evidence ✓ aligns with this verdict
Market state

coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read

Price
Price at verdict$1.21 +1.3% 24h
60d high3.01 -59.8%
60d low0.4057 +198.6%
RSI(14)52.7
vs 200d SMA -43.4%
30d change +1.4%
Funding (net) +2.26 bp/8h
Fear & Greed62 · Greed
Long accounts59.7% long

snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 2 exchanges

Read this ruling three ways

Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.

The Deliberation
LV
Bull Research (Leo Vance)
VS
MF
Bear Research (Mara Frost)
!
THE RISKS — is the uncertainty laid out?
Aggressive desk
Conservative desk
Neutral desk

Invalidation: A sustained move above the $3.013 60-day high would invalidate the bearish ruling.

⚔ Key clashes
LV
Bull Research (Leo Vance)
MF
Bear Research (Mara Frost)
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
LV
Bull Research (Leo Vance)
MF
Bear Research (Mara Frost)
TO
Positioning Desk (Theo Okafor)
DV
Macro Desk (Dmitri Volkov)
JA
Risk Committee · Final Ruling
Chief Adjudicator (Aldrich)
DirectionBearish
ConfidenceMedium
HorizonWeeks (swing)
Key support$0.4057
Key resistance$3.01
InvalidationA sustained move above the $3.013 60-day high would invalidate the bearish ruling.
Main risksMACD momentum may extendBitcoin-led liquidity lift$1B ZeroStack token commitment
KOL Settlement Seat
Calls on record: 0 up · 0 down

Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind

Analyst notes
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)

I’m Kai Nakamura. RSI(14) at 52.7 and MACD histogram at +0.02316 show short-term repair, with price 5.5% above SMA20. But price remains 43.4% below SMA200, while SMA50 sits 43.6% below SMA200: the dominant chart structure is still bearish.

Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)

I’m Sofia Reyes. Fear&Greed at 62 is Greed, and 59.7% of long accounts with a 1.48 L/S ratio show a crowd leaning the same way. Taker buy/sell at 1.05 is only mildly constructive, while StockTwits supplies zero messages—thin confirmation for a crowded optimism reading.

Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)

I’m Ed Walsh. The $1B ZeroStack token commitment is the clearest coin-specific headline, but the pack also carries a Motley Fool report describing a 71% weekly crash. Broader crypto headlines—Bitcoin briefly reaching $70,000 and HYPE gaining 11%—support risk appetite, not MemeCore-specific repair.

Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)

I’m Priya Anand. The $1B token commitment is potentially material, but the data pack gives no supply, unlock, revenue, utility, or valuation details to establish durable token economics. With the 60-day high at $3.013 and current price at $1.20865, the market still reflects severe value destruction.

Provenance
Report fingerprint
044446686418e9d94410277305cd9192eb1b995423d0ab703662aa0ef3653df1
UTC date
2026-08-20
Chain head
3c48fe76cfdb380303016b74f46003f8e487fa46e3f85434b095720b4f300a33

Committed 2026-08-21T00:20:00+00:00 · 88 rulings that day · Check the chain

SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.

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