FET / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
FET hovers at $0.1594 with RSI 38.0, while the bearish structure still points lower
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-16 01:14 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-29 — Underweight — +3.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-28 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-27 — Overweight — -5.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-26 — Neutral — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Overweight — -10.1% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-24 — Neutral — -8.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -9.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-22 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — Underweight — +6.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Underweight — +11.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — +5.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — -8.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — -10.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -7.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Underweight — -0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Underweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — -3.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — -7.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — -7.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — -4.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — -5.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — -7.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Underweight — +6.4% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — +3.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -8.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -9.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-25 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Underweight — -7.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-22 — Underweight — -7.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-21 — Underweight — -7.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-20 — Underweight — +2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-19 — Underweight — +0.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-17 — Underweight — -5.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-16 — Underweight — -3.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-15 — Underweight — -4.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim of approximately $0.1690, reversing the current 5.7% discount to SMA20.. Cautious read: a break below $0.1545 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that MACD flicker is a candle in a collapsing warehouse.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that MACD flicker is a candle in a collapsing warehouse. Key support to defend sits near $0.1545. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number, Mara: FET sits 22.6% below its SMA200 and the 60-day high is a distant $0.2888. But RSI is only 38.0, the MACD histogram is expanding at +0.0003435, and extreme fear at 25 can mean the sellers have already burned their fuel; a rebound from $0.1545 is the obvious pressure point.
Leo, that MACD flicker is a candle in a collapsing warehouse. The price is below every major average, SMA50 trails SMA200 by 6.5%, takers are selling at a 0.90 buy/sell ratio, and the token is already testing the $0.1545 floor after losing 22.2% in 30 days.
· MACD histogram remains positive and expands
· Extreme fear sparks a sharp relief rally
· Support at $0.1545 breaks into accelerated selling
Invalidation: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim of approximately $0.1690, reversing the current 5.7% discount to SMA20.
Leo, you’re treating RSI 38.0 as a reversal signal when it isn’t oversold. What concrete evidence says buyers can reclaim even the SMA20 after a 5.7% discount?
Mara, the expanding MACD histogram says downside momentum is not accelerating cleanly. If $0.1545 holds, your trend thesis becomes a crowded short leaning against a compressed spring.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Leo, you’re treating RSI 38.0 as a reversal signal when it isn’t oversold. What concrete evidence says buyers can reclaim even the SMA20 after a 5.7% discount?
Mara, the expanding MACD histogram says downside momentum is not accelerating cleanly. If $0.1545 holds, your trend thesis becomes a crowded short leaning against a compressed spring.
Leo, the positioning data doesn’t show a clean short squeeze: 51.2% of long accounts and an L/S ratio of 1.05 are only mildly long, while takers still sell at 0.90. That’s weak dip-buying, not aggressive trapped shorts.
I’m with Mara on the regime: the institutional tokenization headlines are broad blockchain optimism, not FET-specific liquidity. Without a direct catalyst, the 44.8% gap to $0.2888 is a monument to overhead supply.
I award the ruling to the bears; the decisive exhibit is FET trading 22.6% below its SMA200 while sitting only 3.2% above the 60-day low of $0.1545. I would overturn this call only if FET reclaims $0.1690, the approximate SMA20-equivalent recovery zone implied by the stated 5.7% discount, and holds above it.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: price below SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200; SMA50 below SMA200 by 6.5%; 30-day loss of 22.2%. Conflict: MACD histogram is positive and expanding at +0.0003435. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bearish. Evidence families: Fear & Greed at 25, taker buy/sell at 0.90, and price only 3.2% above the 60-day low of $0.1545. Conflict: long accounts hold a slight majority at 51.2%, with an L/S ratio of 1.05. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The blockchain headlines are institutionally constructive, with DTCC tokenized securities entering live trading and Cantor partnering with Securitize on blockchain-based IPOs. But those developments do not provide a direct FET catalyst, while the $18 million Ostium exploit reinforces the sector’s active risk premium.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
FET has no concrete token-economics or adoption metrics in the data pack to support a durable fundamental rerating. The available evidence is therefore price- and market-structure dominated, with FET down 22.2% over 30 days.
912b4589a38f7a1b35c69421bfcbc01486fcb2b724bdbae7b9d9785fbad2444a6da543ec34b237c483d95fc9d70813ee7d11bb2d47e02a9a1b3e1847a4282badCommitted 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-05 · 2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25