ARB / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
ARB surges 36.278% to $0.11639, pressing its 60-day high
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-09-01 00:42 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bullish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Mixed
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Underweight — -15.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — -13.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-21 — Overweight — -6.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Underweight — -9.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — +4.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-13 — Underweight — +9.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — +1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-11 — Underweight — +1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-08 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -6.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — -1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — -6.9% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -4.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — -0.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — +1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +3.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — +6.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — +1.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-25 — Underweight — -4.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -9.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Neutral — -10.0% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -9.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-21 — Neutral — -12.2% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-20 — Underweight — -6.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-19 — Underweight — -6.3% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-17 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-16 — Underweight — +1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-15 — Neutral — -5.2% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-07-14 — Neutral — — — VOID
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A decisive break below $0.10719 overturns the bullish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.10719 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your 36.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bullish, horizon Days (momentum).
Bold case: I’ll concede the ugly number, Mara: SMA50 is 12. Resistance to clear sits near $0.117. Horizon: Days (momentum).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number, Mara: SMA50 is 12.8% below SMA200, and the record shows overweight calls lost on August 23 (-13.9% versus BTC) and August 21 (-6.8%). But today ARB is up 36.278%, MACD histogram is expanding at +0.002019, and price sits just 0.6% under the 60-day high—this is a live pressure test, not stale weakness priced into the tape.
Leo, your 36.278% is exactly the number that makes the breakout story fragile: RSI is already 73.0, Fear&Greed is 69, and 55.9% of accounts are long. A rally that cannot clear $0.117 after that burst is a crowded sprint into resistance, while the bearish SMA50/SMA200 structure says the larger trend still has teeth.
· RSI 73.0 and Fear&Greed 69
· rejection at $0.117
· SMA50 12.8% below SMA200
Invalidation: A decisive break below $0.10719 overturns the bullish ruling.
Mara, $0.117 is not a distant ceiling—it’s only 0.6% away after a 26.3% seven-day climb. If buyers were exhausted, MACD would not be expanding at +0.002019.
Leo, MACD expansion is a rear-view mirror at the exact moment RSI reads 73.0. Your breakout needs a clean clearance of $0.117; until then, the 30-day gain of 42.6% is evidence of extension, not proof of continuation.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(5)
Mara, $0.117 is not a distant ceiling—it’s only 0.6% away after a 26.3% seven-day climb. If buyers were exhausted, MACD would not be expanding at +0.002019.
Leo, MACD expansion is a rear-view mirror at the exact moment RSI reads 73.0. Your breakout needs a clean clearance of $0.117; until then, the 30-day gain of 42.6% is evidence of extension, not proof of continuation.
Mara, the flow evidence is less euphoric than you imply: taker buy/sell is 0.99, despite the long-account skew of 55.9%. That is mild crowding, not a confirmed rush of aggressive buyers.
Theo, mild crowding does not create liquidity. Macro-driven pullback coverage is already in the headlines, and ARB remains 18.8% above SMA200 while SMA50 trails SMA200 by 12.8%—a thin risk regime can reverse that distance quickly.
Dmitri, the current tape has already outpaced the old failure pattern: $0.11639 is above the cited $0.11 resistance zone, with the 60-day low at $0.0721 now 61.4% below. That is a materially stronger structure than the recent losing calls.
I rule for the bulls: overweight. The decisive exhibit is the combination of a 36.278% 24-hour advance, expanding MACD at +0.002019, and price 0.6% below the 60-day high, which differs from the August 21 and August 23 losing overweight calls because momentum is now pressing the top of the observed range. I overturn this ruling on a decisive break below $0.10719, the latest candle low.
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Same yardstick for everyone — Wilson 95% CI, settled facts only. KOL outcomes are transcribed from VeraMind's ledger, not re-graded. · Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Direction: bullish. Evidence families: momentum, trend distance, MACD, RSI, key levels. Conflicts: RSI(14) is 73.0 and SMA50 sits 12.8% below SMA200, while price is only 0.6% below the 60-day high. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Direction: bullish but crowded. Evidence families: Fear&Greed, account skew, taker flow, social breadth. Conflicts: Fear&Greed is 69 and long accounts are 55.9%, but taker buy/sell is only 0.99. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Arbitrum headlines split between adoption and macro pressure: OnePay added Arbitrum, while recent coverage framed ARB around $0.09 and resistance near $0.11. The news tape supports a breakout narrative, but it does not explain away the token's sharp volatility.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
OnePay's addition gives Arbitrum a concrete distribution and payments-related adoption headline. The data pack provides no token-unlock, revenue, valuation, or supply figures, so the fundamental case is supportive but incomplete.
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2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24