@crypto_birb — settled call record
Rate rule: kol_directional_v1 — read the full rule →
Small sample — the interval is wide and the number will move.
What @crypto_birb has been sayingtechnical educator
- Admits a specific $30,000 target was wrong after a strong price breakout, but warns the trend isn't confirmed yet. source ↗
- Explains that professional trading often accepts a low win rate (e.g., 37%) as long as wins are larger than losses. source ↗
- Argues that you cannot trade a candlestick pattern until the candle closes because the pattern may not exist yet. source ↗
- Critiques the memecoin sector, citing data showing the majority of traders lose money, and calls it worse than a casino. source ↗
AI-distilled — our read of 109 public posts from the last 30 days, not their words. Every line links to the original so you can check us.
Follow the calls, or just hold BTC?
0 live · 19 backtested — never merged into one number.
These dollar figures are carried by backtests — hypothetical performance from applying the same rule to past statements, not a live track record. Live records: 0 / 19.
Each call is an independent $100 position, closed after 7 days — no compounding, no fees, no slippage. How this is scored →
No prospective calls settled yet — the rate above stays blank until the first one lands. Everything below is backtested.
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
| Coin | Call | What they said | Relative (ranked) † | Absolute (vs USD) † | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | $BTC 200-DAY BPRO SUPPORT TAGGED | MISS +1.7% | +1.7% | 2026-08-18T20:30:35.113455+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | I wouldn't short key long-term BTC bull market support | HIT +3.8% | +3.8% | 2026-08-18T19:30:05.667711+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Next one's gonna hurt. | MISS +8.1% | +8.1% | 2026-08-17T10:00:14.225872+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | The standard shape of a mechanical squeeze on overcrowded shorts. As of now, it looks like a typical corrective tide of a larger down move after breaking new long-term lows. | HIT -3.5% | -3.5% | 2026-08-17T09:00:28.654297+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Bottom line: prepare for further declines. | MISS +6.4% | +6.4% | 2026-08-17T09:00:11.339958+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Retest of falling SMA200 is NOT bullish. | HIT -4.4% | -4.4% | 2026-08-17T08:00:07.922442+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Bear market is firm and steady. | MISS +4.1% | +4.1% | 2026-08-17T06:30:09.487384+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | No visible confirmed reversal signs but big move ahead. | HIT +3.1% | +3.1% | 2026-08-17T06:30:04.650099+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | False breakouts perform better in the opposite direction than initially anticipated due to forcing out over leveraged positions to close, creating further slippage. That implies the bears should get fuel up for further squeeze to the downside. | MISS +0.1% | +0.1% | 2026-08-17T06:00:12.104782+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | We are NOT in bull market. | MISS +5.7% | +5.7% | 2026-08-17T06:00:05.314654+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | → Sideways | Seasonality model puts us at flat March ahead. | HIT -2.8% | -2.8% | 2026-08-17T05:30:23.812749+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | The setup screams continuation. | MISS -9.6% | -9.6% | 2026-08-17T04:00:08.547780+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Short-term: bears still in charge | MISS +9.1% | +9.1% | 2026-08-17T03:00:20.287248+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | Trend feels heavy | MISS +1.5% | +1.5% | 2026-08-17T03:00:15.017187+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Q4 explosion in the making... | MISS -2.3% | -2.3% | 2026-08-17T03:00:07.151690+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↓ Bearish | #BTC still high, but under pressure and daily is not looking good either | MISS +2.6% | +2.6% | 2026-08-17T02:30:08.967121+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | Short-term bounce ahead | MISS -0.8% | -0.8% | 2026-08-17T02:30:04.447031+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| LINK backtested | ↑ Bullish | TA Verdict: $LINK > $XRP | HIT +23.5% | +23.1% | 2026-08-17T02:00:29.931927+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | ↑ Bullish | BTC holds strong over key support ($100k, $108.8k). | MISS -7.3% | -7.3% | 2026-08-17T02:00:24.943790+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| ETH backtested | ↑ Bullish | $ETH WEEKLY BREAKOUT CONFIRMED | HIT +4.3% | +2.1% | 2026-08-17T02:00:20.152798+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
| BTC backtested | → Sideways | Daily Trailer bear mode + 12H Trailer bull mode = flat | HIT +0.6% | +0.6% | 2026-08-17T02:00:16.646687+00:00 | source post → · verdict → |
Relative = altcoins scored against BTC, BTC itself against USD — so BTC rows carry the same number in both columns. Absolute is always vs USD, and never carries a verdict.
Settled after the fact from archived posts — the call was already on the record before we scored it, but we were not watching it live. Kept on a separate line and never merged into the prospective hit rate above.
Graded under price_target_v1 — did the stated price target print? A different rule, never merged into the directional rate above.
| Coin | Call | Result | Settled | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-18 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | — | MISS | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| LINK backtested | — | HIT | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| ETH backtested | — | HIT | 2026-08-17 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | < $113000 | HIT | 2026-07-31 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | <= $113000 | HIT | 2026-07-31 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | < $200000 | HIT | 2026-07-31 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $116000 | MISS | 2026-07-30 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $200000 | MISS | 2026-07-30 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | > $63000 | HIT | 2026-07-28 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | >= $80000 | MISS | 2026-07-28 | verdict → |
| BTC backtested | < $55000 | MISS | 2026-07-28 | verdict → |
Same ruler on both sides: kol_directional_v1 runs on identical parameters to settle_v1 — a 7-day window, a ±3% band, altcoins scored vs BTC and BTC vs USD. That is why the hit rate above and CoinVerdict's 63% can sit side by side. · How the two differ →
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Source: VeraMind settled-call ledger · only verified settlements, never open calls. · Chatter, recaps and "watching" posts never enter the ledger — only explicit calls are settled and counted.