TRUMP / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
TRUMP sits at $1.395 with RSI 31.0, but the tape still points lower
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-08-14 02:34 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Shorts pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-08-24 — Overweight — -6.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-23 — Overweight — +13.8% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-20 — Neutral — +16.9% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
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2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — +34.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-15 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-13 — Underweight — +11.7% — LOSS Verify this settlement
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2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — -3.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-08 — Underweight — -0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-07 — Underweight — -5.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-08-06 — Underweight — -2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-05 — Underweight — +1.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-04 — Underweight — +2.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-03 — Underweight — +1.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-02 — Underweight — -0.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-08-01 — Underweight — +0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-31 — Underweight — +2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-30 — Underweight — -2.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-29 — Underweight — +0.4% — PUSH Verify this settlement
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2026-07-28 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-27 — Underweight — -7.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-26 — Underweight — -5.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-24 — Underweight — -9.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-23 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
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2026-07-22 — Underweight — -5.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
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graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 5 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained move above $1.402 that starts closing the 4.8% gap to SMA20 overturns the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $1.36 voids this research. Confidence Medium — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, that $1.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Weeks (swing).
Bold case: Leo, that $1. Key support to defend sits near $1.36. Horizon: Weeks (swing).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I’ll concede the ugly number: TRUMP is 44.2% below its SMA200 and the 60-day trend has bled 11.7% in 30 days. But RSI at 31.0 says the spring is compressed, MACD is contracting its negative reading, and price is only 2.3% above $1.363—bad news is already etched into the floorboards.
Leo, that $1.363 floor is not proof of support; it is the nearest ledge beneath a price sitting below every major moving average. Your RSI 31.0 argument is the classic oversold mirage: takers are still net sellers at 0.82, and the 60.1% long crowd supplies fuel for a break.
· Oversold RSI rebound
· White House crypto-meeting catalyst
· Break above $1.402
Invalidation: A sustained move above $1.402 that starts closing the 4.8% gap to SMA20 overturns the bearish ruling.
Mara, the crowd is fearful at 29 on Fear & Greed, and panic near a 60-day low often creates the sharpest snapback.
Leo, fear has not produced demand: StockTwits shows 2 bullish versus 10 bearish, and the latest daily close is $1.394 after a $1.402 high—no breakout evidence.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, the crowd is fearful at 29 on Fear & Greed, and panic near a 60-day low often creates the sharpest snapback.
Leo, fear has not produced demand: StockTwits shows 2 bullish versus 10 bearish, and the latest daily close is $1.394 after a $1.402 high—no breakout evidence.
I’m with Mara on flow quality: a 0.82 taker buy/sell ratio means aggressive demand is absent, while the 1.51 long/short ratio leaves the crowd leaning the wrong way.
And the macro tape offers no rescue yet. SEC delays on tokenization and Reg Crypto remove policy momentum just as Trump Media reports a $238 million loss.
I rule for the bears: the decisive exhibit is the bearish moving-average stack, with price 44.2% below SMA200 and SMA50 37.4% below SMA200. The call is invalidated by a sustained move above $1.402 that also begins repairing the SMA20 gap.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
The chart is decisively bearish: price is 4.8% below SMA20, 10.8% below SMA50, and 44.2% below SMA200. RSI at 31.0 and a contracting MACD histogram of -0.0007611 offer oversold relief, but the 60-day low at $1.363 is only 2.3% below.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Fear & Greed is 29, while long accounts still lead at 60.1% with a 1.51 long/short ratio. Taker buy/sell at 0.82 and StockTwits sentiment of 2 bullish versus 10 bearish show weak demand, with residual long crowding vulnerable near support.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
The White House crypto-executive meeting next week is a headline catalyst, but it sits beside reports of a $100 million Trump Crypto transaction involving a businessman with red flags and Trump Media's $238 million second-quarter loss. SEC delays to tokenization and Reg Crypto add policy friction rather than a clean catalyst.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
The fundamental backdrop is fragile: Trump Media reported a $238 million second-quarter loss as crypto declined, while the token remains 31.0% below its 60-day high of $2.021. The data pack provides no token-supply, revenue, or cash-flow metrics to support a durable fundamental recovery case.
12bc3f7a869ee38b431fe2148b6c1c2f9462e8ac5177cbca40ce2e251622c79e53f40f609f1c3a40d35f95df8482a1a109627902af10da6eeb4433219b8978bcCommitted 2026-08-15T00:20:00+00:00 · 95 rulings that day · Check the chain
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