SPX / The Verdict
Display tier = stance × judge confidence. Settlement is always three-way.
SPX’s 0.3195 price sits 9.3% below its 20-day average as sellers press the tape
⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-28 02:18 UTC
Technicalsignal strength
Bearish
C
Sentimentsignal strength
Bearish
C
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction
Longs pay
A
KOL Consensussettled-record quality
—
Archive building
Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.
2026-09-01 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-31 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-30 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-29 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-28 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-27 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-26 — Overweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Overweight — +16.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-24 — Overweight — +15.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-23 — Neutral — +21.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-21 — Overweight — +30.2% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-20 — Overweight — +50.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-19 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — Underweight — +13.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-15 — Underweight — +12.9% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-14 — Underweight — +11.6% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-13 — Underweight — +5.2% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-12 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-11 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-08 — Neutral — -0.9% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-07 — Neutral — -3.0% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-06 — Underweight — -3.5% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-05 — Underweight — -1.0% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-04 — Underweight — -2.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -3.7% — WIN Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-02 — Underweight — -1.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-08-01 — Underweight — +0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-31 — Underweight — -0.9% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-30 — Underweight — -1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-29 — Neutral — -2.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-28 — Underweight — +1.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-27 — Underweight — -2.2% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-26 — Neutral — -1.4% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-24 — Underweight — -0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
2026-07-23 — Neutral — -4.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.
graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →
coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read
snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions · price = median of 3 exchanges
Invalidation: A sustained close above 0.3527 with RSI(14) above 50 would overturn the bearish ruling.. Cautious read: a break below $0.2651 voids this research. Confidence High — when unsure, stand aside. Bears' core: Leo, your 1.
Balanced read: the ruling below stands as the base case. Direction Bearish, horizon Days (momentum).
Bold case: Leo, your 1. Key support to defend sits near $0.2651. Horizon: Days (momentum).
Three risk framings of the same research — every number from today's archived data.
I concede the ugly number, Mara: SPX is down 6.79% in 24 hours and sits 9.3% under SMA20. But RSI at 40.4 is bruised, not capitulating, and the SMA50 still stands 1.1% above SMA200; that longer structure can make this flush stale rather than fatal. With Fear&Greed at 29, the panic is already on the screen and a Korean-listing catalyst can relight the fuse.
Leo, your 1.1% moving-average spread is a postcard from the past, while the live tape is bleeding: -9.8% over seven days, price below every listed SMA, and MACD histogram expanding at -0.004155. RSI 40.4 is not a reversal signal; it simply says sellers have room before exhaustion. The Korean listings are already headline fuel, yet takers still buy at only 0.92 versus sells.
· Korean exchange-listing momentum
· Fear-driven short-covering
· Bullish SMA50/SMA200 structure
Invalidation: A sustained close above 0.3527 with RSI(14) above 50 would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, you’re treating -9.8% over seven days as destiny when price is only 20.5% above the 60-day low of 0.2651. A depressed Fear&Greed reading of 29 gives the rebound asymmetric ignition.
Leo, 0.2651 is not support until buyers defend it; today’s 0.3137 low and 0.3195 spot show the market is still drifting toward that basin. Your ignition has 53.3% of accounts long and a 0.92 taker ratio fighting it.
▶ Live Debate · full exchange(4)
Mara, you’re treating -9.8% over seven days as destiny when price is only 20.5% above the 60-day low of 0.2651. A depressed Fear&Greed reading of 29 gives the rebound asymmetric ignition.
Leo, 0.2651 is not support until buyers defend it; today’s 0.3137 low and 0.3195 spot show the market is still drifting toward that basin. Your ignition has 53.3% of accounts long and a 0.92 taker ratio fighting it.
I’ll side with Mara on positioning: 53.3% longs and a 1.14 long/short ratio are hardly a clean contrarian washout. Without funding data, I can’t claim shorts are paying for this pressure, but the account skew clearly isn’t bullish fuel.
The Senate postponing the Clarity Act is a small but real liquidity-regime drag, Leo. A memecoin needs risk appetite, and the pack gives me no macro catalyst strong enough to override three sub-SMA readings.
I rule for the bears, and the single decisive exhibit is the expanding -0.004155 MACD histogram while SPX trades below SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200. I invalidate this ruling on a sustained move above 0.3527, the approximate 10.3% recovery needed to reclaim SMA50 from 0.3195, accompanied by RSI rising above 50.
Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)
Kai Nakamura: Bearish. Evidence families: RSI(14) at 40.4, price 9.3% below SMA20, 10.3% below SMA50 and 9.3% below SMA200, plus an expanding negative MACD histogram at -0.004155. Conflict: SMA50 remains 1.1% above SMA200, preserving a bullish longer-term moving-average structure. Sufficiency: adequate.
Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)
Sofia Reyes: Bearish. Evidence families: Fear&Greed at 29, taker buy/sell at 0.92, and 53.3% of long accounts with a 1.14 long/short ratio. Conflict: fear is already elevated, which can support a reflexive bounce. Sufficiency: adequate.
Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh: Headlines are promotional rather than durable catalysts: Korean listings on Upbit and Bithumb, rally calls from Murad, and coverage of a large holder still refusing to sell. The U.S. Senate delaying the Clarity Act removes a near-term regulatory tailwind, while the prediction-market ruling is not SPX-specific.
Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)
Priya Anand: The pack supplies no token-supply, valuation, revenue, or protocol-use data. SPX remains a sentiment-led memecoin trade, with the available evidence dominated by price action, positioning, and narrative headlines.
de6a96fcab6c8da561cf69b34503f4eae7fcf892be734a7d975fe6d8f4e4f8d41b179784d8d4e946c4157221c78e88b8ad0a662850703693246f2e057ba3ed4fCommitted 2026-07-29T00:20:00+00:00 · 100 rulings that day · Check the chain
SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.
2026-09-01 · 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-30 · 2026-08-29 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24