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AVAX / The Verdict

generated 2026-07-15 00:13 UTC
$6.70
+3.58% · 24h
price as of 2026-07-15 00:13 UTC
Price source
📜 Archived verdict of 2026-07-15 — latest verdict → AVAX
The Verdict
Neutral

AVAX shows a modest short-term recovery, but broader momentum remains mixed

⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-15 00:13 UTC

Technicalsignal strength Bullish C
Measures how strong the directional signal from price structure is. An analyst lists independent evidence families (trend, momentum, structure) from the data pack; code converts the count to a letter — 3+ families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicting evidence caps the grade at C; insufficient information gets no grade at all. The letter is signal strength — direction is shown separately. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Sentimentsignal strength Bearish C
Same scale as Technical, applied to crowd evidence — fear/greed, positioning, and flow. 3+ independent evidence families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicts cap at C; not enough information, no grade. The letter says how loud the crowd signal is, not which way price will go. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction Longs pay A
Measures perpetual funding-rate pressure — risk, not direction. The smaller the 8-hour normalized rate, the calmer the market: under 0.5 bp = A+, then A, B, C, D as pressure grows, F beyond 10 bp (extreme crowding). Who pays (longs or shorts) is shown separately. Read A+ as “calm”, never as “bullish”. (funding_rule_v1) full scales →
KOL Consensussettled-record quality Archive building
Measures the quality and strength of on-record KOL consensus. Only authors with 20+ settled calls count. The majority share sets the base letter (85%+ = A+ down to 55%+ = D), but few qualified authors cap it — under 5 authors we show the direction and withhold the grade while the record builds. (kol_rule_v1) full scales →

Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.

Track record
7W–4L–18P · 9 neutral · since 2026-07-14
95% CI 35.4–84.8% · n=11 · early sample
2026-09-05 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-12
stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-09-01 — Neutral · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-08
stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-08-31 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-07
stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-08-30 — Neutral · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-06
2026-08-29 — Neutral — -1.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-29 · AVAX price $7.317 · BTC $77872.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-09-05 · AVAX price $7.394 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
-1.2% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-28 — Neutral — -1.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-28 · AVAX price $7.527 · BTC $80168.1
Settled (T+8d)
2026-09-05 · AVAX price $7.394 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
-1.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-08-27 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-27 · AVAX price $7.42 · BTC $78922
Settled (T+9d)
2026-09-05 · AVAX price $7.394 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
-1.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -3.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-25 · AVAX price $7.522 · BTC $78968.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-09-01 · AVAX price $7.267 · BTC $78717.1
vs BTC
-3.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-08-24 — Neutral — -4.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-24 · AVAX price $7.536 · BTC $77645.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-31 · AVAX price $7.158 · BTC $77473.2
vs BTC
-4.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-23 · AVAX price $7.495 · BTC $77094.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-30 · AVAX price $7.344 · BTC $78171.7
vs BTC
-3.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-22 — Underweight — — — VOID
stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-08-21 — Neutral — -6.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-21 · AVAX price $7.353 · BTC $73322.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-28 · AVAX price $7.527 · BTC $80168.1
vs BTC
-6.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-20 — Neutral — -3.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-20 · AVAX price $6.791 · BTC $69631.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-27 · AVAX price $7.42 · BTC $78922
vs BTC
-3.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-16 · AVAX price $6.287 · BTC $63070.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-23 · AVAX price $7.495 · BTC $77094.1
vs BTC
-2.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-14 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-14 · AVAX price $6.455 · BTC $63504.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-21 · AVAX price $7.353 · BTC $73322.8
vs BTC
-1.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-13 — Underweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-13 · AVAX price $6.37 · BTC $63588.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-20 · AVAX price $6.791 · BTC $69631.8
vs BTC
-2.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-12 — Underweight — -1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-12 · AVAX price $6.312 · BTC $63546
Settled (T+8d)
2026-08-20 · AVAX price $6.791 · BTC $69631.8
vs BTC
-1.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-11 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-11 · AVAX price $6.471 · BTC $63941.5
Settled (T+9d)
2026-08-20 · AVAX price $6.791 · BTC $69631.8
vs BTC
-3.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-09 · AVAX price $6.471 · BTC $64963.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-16 · AVAX price $6.287 · BTC $63070.5
vs BTC
+0.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-08 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-08 · AVAX price $6.43 · BTC $64896.5
Settled (T+8d)
2026-08-16 · AVAX price $6.287 · BTC $63070.5
vs BTC
+0.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-07 — Underweight — +2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-07 · AVAX price $6.407 · BTC $64381
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-14 · AVAX price $6.455 · BTC $63504.5
vs BTC
+2.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-06 — Underweight — -2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-06 · AVAX price $6.655 · BTC $64604.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-13 · AVAX price $6.37 · BTC $63588.5
vs BTC
-2.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-08-05 — Neutral — -4.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-05 · AVAX price $6.682 · BTC $64023.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-12 · AVAX price $6.312 · BTC $63546
vs BTC
-4.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-04 — Neutral — -2.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-04 · AVAX price $6.605 · BTC $63558.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-11 · AVAX price $6.471 · BTC $63941.5
vs BTC
-2.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-03 · AVAX price $6.54 · BTC $63435.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-10 · AVAX price $6.441 · BTC $65054
vs BTC
-4.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-02 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-02 · AVAX price $6.184 · BTC $62914.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-09 · AVAX price $6.471 · BTC $64963.4
vs BTC
+1.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-01 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-01 · AVAX price $6.398 · BTC $62954.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-08 · AVAX price $6.43 · BTC $64896.5
vs BTC
-2.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-31 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-31 · AVAX price $6.434 · BTC $63805
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-07 · AVAX price $6.407 · BTC $64381
vs BTC
-1.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-30 — Underweight — +2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-30 · AVAX price $6.436 · BTC $64044.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-06 · AVAX price $6.655 · BTC $64604.5
vs BTC
+2.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-29 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-29 · AVAX price $6.598 · BTC $64051
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-05 · AVAX price $6.682 · BTC $64023.8
vs BTC
+1.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-28 — Underweight — +2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-28 · AVAX price $6.444 · BTC $63644.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-04 · AVAX price $6.605 · BTC $63558.1
vs BTC
+2.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-07-27 — Neutral — -0.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-27 · AVAX price $6.73 · BTC $65216
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-03 · AVAX price $6.54 · BTC $63435.7
vs BTC
-0.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-26 · AVAX price $6.776 · BTC $64416
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-02 · AVAX price $6.184 · BTC $62914.5
vs BTC
-6.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-25 — Underweight — +3.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-25 · AVAX price $6.296 · BTC $64141.3
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-01 · AVAX price $6.398 · BTC $62954.5
vs BTC
+3.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-24 — Underweight — +3.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-24 · AVAX price $6.259 · BTC $64928
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-31 · AVAX price $6.434 · BTC $64779.5
vs BTC
+3.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-23 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-23 · AVAX price $6.61 · BTC $66209
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-30 · AVAX price $6.436 · BTC $64044.7
vs BTC
+0.7% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-22 — Underweight — +4.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-22 · AVAX price $6.512 · BTC $65937.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-29 · AVAX price $6.598 · BTC $64051
vs BTC
+4.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-21 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-21 · AVAX price $6.579 · BTC $65161.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-28 · AVAX price $6.444 · BTC $63644.6
vs BTC
+0.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-20 — Underweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-20 · AVAX price $6.475 · BTC $63745.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-27 · AVAX price $6.73 · BTC $65216
vs BTC
+1.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-19 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-19 · AVAX price $6.559 · BTC $64708.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-26 · AVAX price $6.776 · BTC $64416
vs BTC
+3.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-17 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-17 · AVAX price $6.469 · BTC $63739.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-24 · AVAX price $6.259 · BTC $64928
vs BTC
-5.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-16 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-16 · AVAX price $6.708 · BTC $64777.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-23 · AVAX price $6.61 · BTC $66209
vs BTC
-3.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-07-15 — Neutral — -4.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-15 · AVAX price $6.704 · BTC $65000.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-22 · AVAX price $6.584 · BTC $66588
vs BTC
-4.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-14 — Neutral — — — VOID

graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →

The evidence
Bull evidence
Bear evidence

coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read

Price
Price at verdict$6.70 +3.6% 24h
60d high9.60 -30.1%
60d low5.67 +18.2%
RSI(14)49.3
30d change -1.9%

snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions

The Deliberation
LV
Bull Research (Leo Vance)
VS
MF
Bear Research (Mara Frost)
JA
Risk Committee · Final Ruling
Chief Adjudicator (Aldrich)
KOL Settlement Seat
Calls on record: 0 up · 0 down

Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind

Analyst notes
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)

Short-term momentum is improving, while price remains below the SMA50 and RSI is neutral.

Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)

Market sentiment is extremely fearful, despite a net-long account bias and slightly positive taker flow.

Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)

Headlines are mixed and mainly focused on U.S. crypto regulation and industry developments.

Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)

The data pack provides no AVAX-specific fundamental or valuation data.

Provenance
Report fingerprint
6d1f18cdcc7253e783e13eac64a9e3975207181ebef477615b9fbd5985530faf
UTC date
2026-07-15
Chain head
fe6d19bbd0dec4d03a8b201098fd67ad3bf99835727f3053ccd256283e21cc8a

Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 67 rulings that day · Check the chain

SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.

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