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AVAX / The Verdict

generated 2026-07-14 16:13 UTC
$6.68
+2.28% · 24h
price as of 2026-07-14 16:13 UTC
Price source
📜 Archived verdict of 2026-07-14 — latest verdict → AVAX
The Verdict
Neutral

AVAX shows a short-term rebound, but the evidence base is too limited for a directional conviction.

⚖ Verdict rendered 2026-07-14 16:13 UTC

Technicalsignal strength Bullish Insufficient data
Measures how strong the directional signal from price structure is. An analyst lists independent evidence families (trend, momentum, structure) from the data pack; code converts the count to a letter — 3+ families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicting evidence caps the grade at C; insufficient information gets no grade at all. The letter is signal strength — direction is shown separately. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Sentimentsignal strength Mixed Insufficient data
Same scale as Technical, applied to crowd evidence — fear/greed, positioning, and flow. 3+ independent evidence families with no conflict = A+, 2 = B, 1 = D; conflicts cap at C; not enough information, no grade. The letter says how loud the crowd signal is, not which way price will go. (evidence_rule_v1) full scales →
Fundingrate pressure — grade is risk, not direction Longs pay A+
Measures perpetual funding-rate pressure — risk, not direction. The smaller the 8-hour normalized rate, the calmer the market: under 0.5 bp = A+, then A, B, C, D as pressure grows, F beyond 10 bp (extreme crowding). Who pays (longs or shorts) is shown separately. Read A+ as “calm”, never as “bullish”. (funding_rule_v1) full scales →
KOL Consensussettled-record quality Archive building
Measures the quality and strength of on-record KOL consensus. Only authors with 20+ settled calls count. The majority share sets the base letter (85%+ = A+ down to 55%+ = D), but few qualified authors cap it — under 5 authors we show the direction and withhold the grade while the record builds. (kol_rule_v1) full scales →

Each grade is scored on its own scale — they are not averaged, by design.

Track record
7W–4L–18P · 9 neutral · since 2026-07-14
95% CI 35.4–84.8% · n=11 · early sample
2026-09-05 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-12
stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-09-01 — Neutral · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-08
stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-08-31 — Underweight · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-07
stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-08-30 — Neutral · Settling — verdict due 2026-09-06
2026-08-29 — Neutral — -1.2% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-29 · AVAX price $7.317 · BTC $77872.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-09-05 · AVAX price $7.394 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
-1.2% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-28 — Neutral — -1.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-28 · AVAX price $7.527 · BTC $80168.1
Settled (T+8d)
2026-09-05 · AVAX price $7.394 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
-1.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-08-27 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-27 · AVAX price $7.42 · BTC $78922
Settled (T+9d)
2026-09-05 · AVAX price $7.394 · BTC $79665.6
vs BTC
-1.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-26 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — Underweight — -3.1% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-25 · AVAX price $7.522 · BTC $78968.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-09-01 · AVAX price $7.267 · BTC $78717.1
vs BTC
-3.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-08-24 — Neutral — -4.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-24 · AVAX price $7.536 · BTC $77645.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-31 · AVAX price $7.158 · BTC $77473.2
vs BTC
-4.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-08-23 — Underweight — -3.4% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-23 · AVAX price $7.495 · BTC $77094.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-30 · AVAX price $7.344 · BTC $78171.7
vs BTC
-3.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-22 — Underweight — — — VOID
stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-08-21 — Neutral — -6.4% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-21 · AVAX price $7.353 · BTC $73322.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-28 · AVAX price $7.527 · BTC $80168.1
vs BTC
-6.4% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-20 — Neutral — -3.6% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-20 · AVAX price $6.791 · BTC $69631.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-27 · AVAX price $7.42 · BTC $78922
vs BTC
-3.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-08-16 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-16 · AVAX price $6.287 · BTC $63070.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-23 · AVAX price $7.495 · BTC $77094.1
vs BTC
-2.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-14 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-14 · AVAX price $6.455 · BTC $63504.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-21 · AVAX price $7.353 · BTC $73322.8
vs BTC
-1.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-13 — Underweight — -2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-13 · AVAX price $6.37 · BTC $63588.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-20 · AVAX price $6.791 · BTC $69631.8
vs BTC
-2.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-12 — Underweight — -1.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-12 · AVAX price $6.312 · BTC $63546
Settled (T+8d)
2026-08-20 · AVAX price $6.791 · BTC $69631.8
vs BTC
-1.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-11 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-11 · AVAX price $6.471 · BTC $63941.5
Settled (T+9d)
2026-08-20 · AVAX price $6.791 · BTC $69631.8
vs BTC
-3.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-10 — Underweight — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — Underweight — +0.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-09 · AVAX price $6.471 · BTC $64963.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-16 · AVAX price $6.287 · BTC $63070.5
vs BTC
+0.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-08 — Underweight — +0.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-08 · AVAX price $6.43 · BTC $64896.5
Settled (T+8d)
2026-08-16 · AVAX price $6.287 · BTC $63070.5
vs BTC
+0.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-07 — Underweight — +2.1% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-07 · AVAX price $6.407 · BTC $64381
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-14 · AVAX price $6.455 · BTC $63504.5
vs BTC
+2.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-06 — Underweight — -2.8% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-06 · AVAX price $6.655 · BTC $64604.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-13 · AVAX price $6.37 · BTC $63588.5
vs BTC
-2.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-08-05 — Neutral — -4.8% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-05 · AVAX price $6.682 · BTC $64023.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-12 · AVAX price $6.312 · BTC $63546
vs BTC
-4.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-04 — Neutral — -2.6% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-04 · AVAX price $6.605 · BTC $63558.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-11 · AVAX price $6.471 · BTC $63941.5
vs BTC
-2.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-08-03 — Underweight — -4.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-03 · AVAX price $6.54 · BTC $63435.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-10 · AVAX price $6.441 · BTC $65054
vs BTC
-4.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-02 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-02 · AVAX price $6.184 · BTC $62914.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-09 · AVAX price $6.471 · BTC $64963.4
vs BTC
+1.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-08-01 — Underweight — -2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-08-01 · AVAX price $6.398 · BTC $62954.5
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-08 · AVAX price $6.43 · BTC $64896.5
vs BTC
-2.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-31 — Underweight — -1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-31 · AVAX price $6.434 · BTC $63805
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-07 · AVAX price $6.407 · BTC $64381
vs BTC
-1.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-30 — Underweight — +2.5% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-30 · AVAX price $6.436 · BTC $64044.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-06 · AVAX price $6.655 · BTC $64604.5
vs BTC
+2.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-29 — Underweight — +1.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-29 · AVAX price $6.598 · BTC $64051
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-05 · AVAX price $6.682 · BTC $64023.8
vs BTC
+1.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-28 — Underweight — +2.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-28 · AVAX price $6.444 · BTC $63644.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-04 · AVAX price $6.605 · BTC $63558.1
vs BTC
+2.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-07-27 — Neutral — -0.1% — flat ✓ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-27 · AVAX price $6.73 · BTC $65216
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-03 · AVAX price $6.54 · BTC $63435.7
vs BTC
-0.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Underweight → Neutral
2026-07-26 — Underweight — -6.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-26 · AVAX price $6.776 · BTC $64416
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-02 · AVAX price $6.184 · BTC $62914.5
vs BTC
-6.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-25 — Underweight — +3.5% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-25 · AVAX price $6.296 · BTC $64141.3
Settled (T+7d)
2026-08-01 · AVAX price $6.398 · BTC $62954.5
vs BTC
+3.5% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-24 — Underweight — +3.0% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-24 · AVAX price $6.259 · BTC $64928
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-31 · AVAX price $6.434 · BTC $64779.5
vs BTC
+3.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-23 — Underweight — +0.7% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-23 · AVAX price $6.61 · BTC $66209
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-30 · AVAX price $6.436 · BTC $64044.7
vs BTC
+0.7% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-22 — Underweight — +4.3% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-22 · AVAX price $6.512 · BTC $65937.6
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-29 · AVAX price $6.598 · BTC $64051
vs BTC
+4.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-21 — Underweight — +0.3% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-21 · AVAX price $6.579 · BTC $65161.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-28 · AVAX price $6.444 · BTC $63644.6
vs BTC
+0.3% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-20 — Underweight — +1.6% — PUSH Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-20 · AVAX price $6.475 · BTC $63745.4
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-27 · AVAX price $6.73 · BTC $65216
vs BTC
+1.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-19 — Underweight — +3.8% — LOSS Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-19 · AVAX price $6.559 · BTC $64708.7
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-26 · AVAX price $6.776 · BTC $64416
vs BTC
+3.8% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-17 — Underweight — -5.0% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-17 · AVAX price $6.469 · BTC $63739.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-24 · AVAX price $6.259 · BTC $64928
vs BTC
-5.0% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-16 — Underweight — -3.6% — WIN Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-16 · AVAX price $6.708 · BTC $64777.8
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-23 · AVAX price $6.61 · BTC $66209
vs BTC
-3.6% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

stance change · Neutral → Underweight
2026-07-15 — Neutral — -4.1% — flat ✗ Verify this settlement
Entry (T0)
2026-07-15 · AVAX price $6.704 · BTC $65000.1
Settled (T+7d)
2026-07-22 · AVAX price $6.584 · BTC $66588
vs BTC
-4.1% · Rule settle_v1

Prices from the archived reports themselves — open either end to check.

2026-07-14 — Neutral — — — VOID

graded settle_v1, 7d vs BTC — misses stay on the record · full receipts →

The evidence
Bull evidence

coin_evidence_v1 · how these are read

Price
Price at verdict$6.68 +2.3% 24h
60d high7.11 -6.1%
60d low5.67 +17.7%
RSI(14)49.1

snapshot at verdict time, computed from exchange data — facts, not opinions

The Deliberation
LV
Bull Research (Leo Vance)
VS
MF
Bear Research (Mara Frost)
JA
Risk Committee · Final Ruling
Chief Adjudicator (Aldrich)
KOL Settlement Seat
Calls on record: 0 up · 0 down

Opinions are AI; settlements are facts. · data powered by VeraMind

Analyst notes
Technical Analyst (Kai Nakamura)

The latest candle closed near its high with a 2.283% 24-hour gain, indicating short-term positive momentum.

Sentiment Analyst (Sofia Reyes)

Sentiment is mixed: macro conditions appear mildly supportive, while the headlines provide little direct AVAX-specific signal.

Macro & News Analyst (Ed Walsh)

Current headlines focus on stablecoins, Ethereum privacy, tokenization, AI valuations, and U.S. inflation rather than Avalanche developments.

Fundamental Analyst (Priya Anand)

The data pack contains no AVAX-specific fundamental metrics or catalysts to support a stronger verdict.

Provenance
Report fingerprint
7f23f667df96c6f6d58ec0f6c3a006a367053d6677a414a8a33f83e547e224d4
UTC date
2026-07-14
Chain head
db67f5aa2a2dbcb89b70963c6b527d753ee1390bac3f00ac095ef86bc5140e3d

Committed 2026-07-24T10:21:07+00:00 · 21 rulings that day · Check the chain

SHA-256 of this report as stored. It is the exact value committed to that day's chain — recompute it yourself and compare.

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