UNI / 研报
呈现档位 = 立场 × 裁判信心度。结算口径永远是三档。
UNI报3.56美元，面临MACD亏损扩大及单日4.9%的下跌
⚖ 成文时间 2026-08-13 00:35 UTC
技术面信号强度
看空
C
市场情绪信号强度
看空
C
资金费率费率压力——评级是风险,不是方向
多头支付
A+
KOL 共识结算档案质量
—
档案积累中
各维评级口径独立,刻意不做平均。
2026-08-05 — 减持 — -1.5% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-04 — 减持 — +0.1% — 平 核验这条结算
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2026-08-03 — 增持 — -5.5% — 输 核验这条结算
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2026-08-02 — 增持 — -5.7% — 输 核验这条结算
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2026-08-01 — 增持 — -10.8% — 输 核验这条结算
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2026-07-31 — 增持 — -9.5% — 输 核验这条结算
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2026-07-30 — 增持 — +1.6% — 平 核验这条结算
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2026-07-29 — 增持 — -1.7% — 平 核验这条结算
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2026-07-28 — 中性 — +6.0% — 出带 ✗ 核验这条结算
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2026-07-27 — 增持 — +9.8% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-07-26 — 减持 — +14.1% — 输 核验这条结算
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2026-07-25 — 增持 — +16.1% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-07-24 — 中性 — +18.5% — 出带 ✗ 核验这条结算
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2026-07-23 — 中性 — +8.6% — 出带 ✗ 核验这条结算
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2026-07-22 — 增持 — +7.8% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-07-21 — 中性 — +4.4% — 出带 ✗ 核验这条结算
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2026-07-20 — 减持 — +10.6% — 输 核验这条结算
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2026-07-19 — 中性 — +3.7% — 出带 ✗ 核验这条结算
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2026-07-17 — 中性 — +3.6% — 出带 ✗ 核验这条结算
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2026-07-16 — 减持 — +3.0% — 输 核验这条结算
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2026-07-15 — 中性 — -1.1% — 带内 ✓ 核验这条结算
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2026-07-14 — 中性 — — — VOID
按 settle_v1 结算,7天 vs BTC——失误同样在档 · 完整结算档案 →
coin_evidence_v1 · 判读规则
生成时刻快照,由交易所数据计算——事实,非观点 · 价格 = 5 家交易所中位数
失效条件:The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim of SMA20 territory from the current 9.6% discount, especially if MACD histogram turns positive.。 保守读法:跌破 $3.55 即本研报失效。 信心 中,不确定时观望。 空方核心:Leo, your SMA200 defense is a rear-view mirror glued over a leaking windshield.
平衡读法:下方裁定即基准情形。 方向 看空,时限 波段(数周)。
激进情形:Leo, your SMA200 defense is a rear-view mirror glued over a leaking windshield. 需守住的关键支撑在 $3.55 附近。 时限:波段(数周)。
同一研报的三种风险读法 · 内容全部来自当日存档数据。
I concede the ugly tape: UNI is down 4.889% in 24 hours, 11.3% over seven days, and sits 9.6% below SMA20. But RSI at 41.3 isn't capitulation, and the SMA50 remains 3.6% above SMA200 while price is still 2.9% above SMA200—the deeper trend has not been cremated. The four recent overweight calls, on July 31 through August 3, all lost against BTC by 9.5%, 10.8%, 5.7%, and 5.5%; that failure is stale evidence, not a license to extrapolate every current dip into a collapse.
Leo, your SMA200 defense is a rear-view mirror glued over a leaking windshield. The decisive number is the expanding -0.07972 MACD histogram alongside a 0.81 taker buy/sell ratio and a 22.2% gap to the 60-day high at $4.575. The four overweight losses are not stale when the present chart still shows the same kind of relative weakness, and the $2.56 low remains 39.1% below rather than safely distant.
I see more downside than the ruling admits: UNI is still 39.1% above the 60-day low of $2.56, so a renewed break could unwind much farther before structural support appears. The 0.81 taker buy/sell ratio says sellers still control immediate flow.
The fastest failure is a snapback from RSI 41.3 into the intact moving-average structure: price is 2.9% above SMA200 and SMA50 is 3.6% above SMA200. That bullish structure is the fragile exhibit; a reclaim of SMA20 would damage the bearish call quickly.
The aggressive case overreaches by treating the $2.56 low as an immediate destination, while the conservative case overweights lagging averages. The deciding condition is whether UNI can recover the SMA20 area after the current 9.6% discount; the recent 0 WIN / 4 LOSS record on shown directional calls favors respecting present weakness until that recovery occurs.
· Bullish SMA50/SMA200 structure
· RSI 41.3 leaves rebound room
· No funding-rate confirmation
推翻条件: The bearish ruling is invalidated by a sustained reclaim of SMA20 territory from the current 9.6% discount, especially if MACD histogram turns positive.
Mara, the 60-day high at $4.575 is irrelevant to a short-horizon bounce; RSI 41.3 leaves room for mean reversion, while SMA50 over SMA200 by 3.6% says the base isn't broken.
Leo, mean reversion needs demand, and 0.81 taker buy/sell says the aggressive flow is selling into the tape. Your bullish MA structure is being attacked by a 9.6% SMA20 deficit.
▶ Live Debate · 完整交锋(5)
Mara, the 60-day high at $4.575 is irrelevant to a short-horizon bounce; RSI 41.3 leaves room for mean reversion, while SMA50 over SMA200 by 3.6% says the base isn't broken.
Leo, mean reversion needs demand, and 0.81 taker buy/sell says the aggressive flow is selling into the tape. Your bullish MA structure is being attacked by a 9.6% SMA20 deficit.
I’ll put the dry number on the table: only 48.3% of long accounts are long, with an L/S ratio of 0.94. That is not a crowded-long unwind by itself, but taker flow still favors sellers; funding is unavailable, so no funding-based squeeze claim is supportable.
The macro tape offers no rescue: UNI fell while ETH and DOGE rose, and the broader headlines include Securitize falling 20% after a revenue miss. Relative weakness is the exhibit, not a story about an isolated token.
Dmitri, that is correlation theater. If UNI holds $3.553—the latest candle low—and reclaims SMA20 territory, the short-term bear case loses its anchor.
I rule bearish: the decisive exhibit is the expanding -0.07972 MACD histogram reinforced by a 0.81 taker buy/sell ratio while UNI trades at $3.56. This differs from the recent July 31–August 3 overweight losses because the present call follows documented short-term deterioration rather than repeating the failed bullish stance. I overturn the ruling if UNI reclaims the SMA20 area after trading 9.6% below it, or if MACD histogram turns positive.
观点是 AI;结算是事实。 · data powered by VeraMind
技术分析师(Kai Nakamura)
看空。RSI(14)为41.3，价格低于SMA20达9.6%，且MACD柱状图为-0.07972并呈扩大趋势。看涨的长期结构——价格高于SMA200达2.9%，且SMA50高于SMA200达3.6%——与较弱的短期趋势相冲突。证据充分。
情绪分析师(Sofia Reyes)
看空。恐惧贪婪指数(Fear & Greed)为29，主动买卖(taker buy/sell)比率为0.81，且仅有48.3%的账户持有多头，多空比(L/S ratio)为0.94。StockTwits的样本偏向看涨（2比1），但这仅有7条信息，与更广泛的卖压相冲突。证据充分。
宏观新闻分析师(Ed Walsh)
看空。近期的UNI报道集中在10%的头寸重置、跌破关键支撑位以及在ETH和DOGE上涨时持续走弱。与BlackRock相关的新闻描述了此前13%的飙升，但当前的价格走势并未延续这一势头。
基本面分析师(Priya Anand)
中性。该报告未提供UNI任何新的协议收入、费用、治理、供应量或估值数据。现有新闻主要围绕价格驱动，因此缺乏支持看涨结论的基本面依据。
214b792b01b8128eae46baefa43b31ab325682bc6984aeb4c9587feb810a5601尚未承诺。当日判定要等每日承诺任务跑完才写入链——在那之前,这篇研报有指纹,但链上还没有它的位置。 · 核验这条链
本篇研报入库原文的 SHA-256。它就是当日写进承诺链的那个值——你可以自己重算一遍比对。
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