ETC / 研报
呈现档位 = 立场 × 裁判信心度。结算口径永远是三档。
ETC报6.21美元，较60日低点高出1.4%，看跌动能持续加深
⚖ 成文时间 2026-08-13 01:00 UTC
技术面信号强度
看空
C
市场情绪信号强度
看空
C
资金费率费率压力——评级是风险,不是方向
多头支付
A+
KOL 共识结算档案质量
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档案积累中
各维评级口径独立,刻意不做平均。
2026-08-05 — 减持 — -1.7% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-04 — 减持 — -3.3% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-03 — 减持 — -4.6% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-02 — 减持 — -3.2% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-08-01 — 减持 — -5.5% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-31 — 减持 — -4.8% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-30 — 减持 — -2.6% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-29 — 减持 — -2.9% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-28 — 减持 — -2.3% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-27 — 减持 — -4.2% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-26 — 减持 — -0.7% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-25 — 减持 — +3.0% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-24 — 减持 — -1.1% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-23 — 减持 — -0.7% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-22 — 减持 — -0.3% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-21 — 减持 — -0.3% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-20 — 减持 — +2.2% — 平 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-19 — 减持 — -3.5% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-17 — 减持 — -3.4% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-16 — 减持 — -3.3% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-15 — 中性 — -2.8% — 带内 ✓ 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
按 settle_v1 结算,7天 vs BTC——失误同样在档 · 完整结算档案 →
coin_evidence_v1 · 判读规则
生成时刻快照,由交易所数据计算——事实,非观点 · 价格 = 5 家交易所中位数
失效条件:A sustained move above $6.259 with RSI reclaiming 50 would overturn the bearish ruling.。 保守读法:跌破 $6.12 即本研报失效。 信心 高,不确定时观望。 空方核心:That $6.
平衡读法:下方裁定即基准情形。 方向 看空,时限 短线(数日)。
激进情形:That $6. 需守住的关键支撑在 $6.12 附近。 时限:短线(数日)。
同一研报的三种风险读法 · 内容全部来自当日存档数据。
I’ll concede the ugly number: ETC is 23.2% under its SMA200 and has shed 12.5% in 30 days. But RSI at 30.7 says the spring is compressed, while price is only 1.4% above the 60-day low at $6.121; a washed-out tape can snap back before the crowd gets comfortable.
That $6.121 proximity is not a spring; it’s a warning label. Leo’s RSI argument ignores the expanding -0.02197 MACD histogram, the 0.78 taker buy/sell ratio, and a 5.5% discount to SMA20—oversold can stay oversold while support gets tested.
I see more downside than the ruling admits: ETC is 20.1% below the 60-day high of $7.763, yet still has not broken the $6.121 low. If that floor gives way, the 30-day loss of 12.5% can accelerate as weak support disappears.
The fastest failure point is the RSI exhibit: at 30.7, ETC is already near oversold, so a rebound above the latest $6.259 high could turn the bearish call into a squeeze. The fragile assumption is that the expanding -0.02197 MACD persists.
The bear side overreaches if it treats oversold conditions as irrelevant. I arbitrate on the $6.121 low: holding it keeps the call bearish but vulnerable to a bounce, while a clean break confirms the downside thesis; the settled record favors the bear, with 5 WIN and 0 LOSS directional calls shown.
· oversold RSI rebound
· hold of $6.121 support
· short-term squeeze above $6.259
推翻条件: A sustained move above $6.259 with RSI reclaiming 50 would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, you’re treating $6.121 as destiny when RSI is already 30.7. A small failure to extend lower would force a sharp reflex move into the $6.259 intraday high.
Leo, the tape already answered that test: the latest close was $6.205 after a $6.259 high, and 24-hour performance is -2.665%. Your reflex bounce has no evidence beyond exhaustion.
▶ Live Debate · 完整交锋(4)
Mara, you’re treating $6.121 as destiny when RSI is already 30.7. A small failure to extend lower would force a sharp reflex move into the $6.259 intraday high.
Leo, the tape already answered that test: the latest close was $6.205 after a $6.259 high, and 24-hour performance is -2.665%. Your reflex bounce has no evidence beyond exhaustion.
Leo, the flow exhibit favors Mara: takers are buying at only 0.78 relative to sellers, while the 1.13 L/S ratio leaves a modest long-account tilt exposed to further downside. The crowd isn’t capitulating cleanly; it’s leaning into weakness.
And the macro headlines offer ETC no rescue. With 7-day performance at -4.5% and 30-day performance at -12.5%, liquidity is rewarding distance from risk, not a lonely oversold reading.
I rule for the bear case: underweight. The decisive exhibit is the bearish moving-average stack, with price 23.2% below SMA200 and SMA50 15.4% below SMA200. This ruling is invalidated by a sustained move above $6.259 accompanied by RSI reclaiming 50.
观点是 AI;结算是事实。 · data powered by VeraMind
技术分析师(Kai Nakamura)
看空。ETC较SMA20低5.5%，较SMA50低9.2%，较SMA200低23.2%；SMA50较SMA200低15.4%。RSI为30.7，接近超卖，但MACD柱状图为-0.02197且正在扩大。方向：看空；证据家族：移动平均线结构、动能、RSI、支撑/阻力；冲突：RSI 30.7接近超卖；充分性：充分。
情绪分析师(Sofia Reyes)
看空。恐惧贪婪指数为29，吃单买卖比为0.78，仅有53.0%的多头账户在场，多空比为1.13。在7条消息中，仅有1条看多的StockTwits自标签，过于薄弱，无法抵消疲软的激进买入。方向：看空；证据家族：恐惧指标、账户倾斜、吃单流向、社交讨论；冲突：53.0%的多头账户和1个看多标签；充分性：充分。
宏观新闻分析师(Ed Walsh)
ETC相关的新闻标题多为转换工具，而非催化剂。关于CFTC（美国商品期货交易委员会）预测市场激励和Securitize 20%的业绩不及预期的更广泛新闻，并未给ETC带来直接的基本面推动。
基本面分析师(Priya Anand)
数据包未提供ETC网络、发行量、算力、开发者或估值指标。唯一可辩护的基本面解读是，未记录任何币种特定的催化剂；证据有限。
b9e037c51d64a4898a191d3a39bb0d02f4f93725ae3ab9db387f4c9c72c5567d尚未承诺。当日判定要等每日承诺任务跑完才写入链——在那之前,这篇研报有指纹,但链上还没有它的位置。 · 核验这条链
本篇研报入库原文的 SHA-256。它就是当日写进承诺链的那个值——你可以自己重算一遍比对。
2026-08-12 · 2026-08-11 · 2026-08-10 · 2026-08-09 · 2026-08-08 · 2026-08-07 · 2026-08-06 · 2026-08-05