CHZ / 研报
CHZ报0.01266美元，较60日低点高出1.0%，RSI指标录得23.8
⚖ 成文时间 2026-08-02 01:04 UTC
技术面信号强度
看空
C
市场情绪信号强度
看空
C
资金费率费率压力——评级是风险,不是方向
空头支付
A
KOL 共识结算档案质量
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档案积累中
各维评级口径独立,刻意不做平均。
2026-07-24 — 减持 — -11.3% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-23 — 减持 — -9.9% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-22 — 减持 — -5.9% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-21 — 减持 — -11.7% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-20 — 减持 — -5.6% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-19 — 减持 — -6.7% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-17 — 减持 — -14.0% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-16 — 减持 — -12.8% — 赢 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
2026-07-15 — 中性 — -11.3% — 出带 ✗ 核验这条结算
价格取自已存档报告本身——点开两端可自行核对。
按 settle_v1 结算,7天 vs BTC——失误同样在档 · 完整结算档案 →
coin_evidence_v1 · 判读规则
生成时刻快照,由交易所数据计算——事实,非观点 · 价格 = 5 家交易所中位数
失效条件:A close above $0.01266 with RSI recovering above 30 would overturn the bearish ruling.。 保守读法:跌破 $0.01251 即本研报失效。 信心 高,不确定时观望。 空方核心:Leo, that MACD histogram is a candle flicker beneath a collapsing building.
平衡读法:下方裁定即基准情形。 方向 看空,时限 波段(数周)。
激进情形:Leo, that MACD histogram is a candle flicker beneath a collapsing building. 需守住的关键支撑在 $0.01251 附近。 时限:波段(数周)。
同一研报的三种风险读法 · 内容全部来自当日存档数据。
I’ll concede the ugly tape: CHZ is down 32.0% in 30 days and sits just 1.0% above the 60-day low. But RSI at 23.8 is a spent match, while the expanding +5.55e-05 MACD histogram says sellers are losing immediate momentum; that combination can make the low stale and the rebound violent.
Leo, that MACD histogram is a candle flicker beneath a collapsing building. CHZ remains 12.7% below SMA20, 27.3% below SMA50, and 63.6% below SMA200, with the 60-day low only 1.0% beneath price—there is no demonstrated floor, only proximity to one.
· oversold rebound from RSI 23.8
· MACD histogram reversal
· fan-token expansion on Solana and Base
推翻条件: A close above $0.01266 with RSI recovering above 30 would overturn the bearish ruling.
Mara, proximity matters when RSI is 23.8 and the MACD histogram is expanding; exhaustion can arrive before the chart looks pretty.
Leo, exhaustion without recovery is just a pause. The -11.0% seven-day move and -32.0% monthly move keep the trend intact.
▶ Live Debate · 完整交锋(4)
Mara, proximity matters when RSI is 23.8 and the MACD histogram is expanding; exhaustion can arrive before the chart looks pretty.
Leo, exhaustion without recovery is just a pause. The -11.0% seven-day move and -32.0% monthly move keep the trend intact.
Leo, the crowd is fearful at 27, but 57.4% of accounts are still long and the 0.87 taker buy/sell ratio favors sellers. That is trapped optimism, not clean capitulation; funding is unavailable, so I won’t invent a squeeze case.
Mara has the regime: a token 63.6% below SMA200 is fighting gravity, and the broader security headline about an $89 million Bitcoin cold-wallet attack does nothing to improve speculative liquidity.
I rule for the bear side: CHZ is bearish. The decisive exhibit is the 63.6% gap below SMA200, reinforced by the 60-day low at $0.01251; a sustained move above $0.01251 is not enough to overturn that structure, but a close below $0.01251 confirms continuation, while an RSI recovery above 30 together with a close above $0.01266 would invalidate this ruling.
观点是 AI;结算是事实。 · data powered by VeraMind
技术分析师(Kai Nakamura)
方向：看跌。证据链：RSI 23.8，价格低于SMA20/SMA50/SMA200达12.7%/27.3%/63.6%，看跌的移动平均线结构，MACD柱状图+5.55e-05且持续扩大。矛盾点：短期MACD改善与深度看跌趋势结构之间的冲突；充分性：充分。
情绪分析师(Sofia Reyes)
方向：看跌。证据链：恐惧贪婪指数27，主动买卖比0.87，57.4%的账户持有多头，多空比1.35。矛盾点：恐惧情绪高涨，但多头仍多于空头；StockTwits无相关消息；充分性：充分。
宏观新闻分析师(Ed Walsh)
Ed Walsh：Chiliz fan token在Solana和Base上的上线是可信的扩张性新闻，但市场以30天内32.0%的下跌作为回应。在此扩张背景下，CHZ被报道下跌5%，使得该新闻流看起来像是催化剂被抛售，而非重估引擎。
基本面分析师(Priya Anand)
Priya Anand：Solana/Base的上线扩展了Chiliz fan token的发行渠道，而报道的世界杯fan token销毁提供了供应支撑的叙事。这两点都无法抵消低于SMA200高达63.6%的直接证据，也无法建立持久的代币需求增长。
93611124994e9fd11c60153d1064cb8149184cd7fb322d738ec66505611e6811尚未承诺。当日判定要等每日承诺任务跑完才写入链——在那之前,这篇研报有指纹,但链上还没有它的位置。 · 核验这条链
本篇研报入库原文的 SHA-256。它就是当日写进承诺链的那个值——你可以自己重算一遍比对。
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