CC / 研报
呈现档位 = 立场 × 裁判信心度。结算口径永远是三档。
Greed hits 73 while price sits 23.2% below the SMA200, a dangerous disconnect for a token that just logged two underweight losses.
⚖ 成文时间 2026-09-05 03:43 UTC
技术面信号强度
看空
C
市场情绪信号强度
看空
C
资金费率费率压力——评级是风险,不是方向
多头支付
A
KOL 共识结算档案质量
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档案积累中
各维评级口径独立,刻意不做平均。
2026-08-29 — 减持 — -4.5% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-08-28 — 减持 — -4.0% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-08-27 — 中性 — -7.9% — 出带 ✗ 核验这条结算
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2026-08-26 — 中性 — — — VOID
2026-08-25 — 中性 — -0.3% — 带内 ✓ 核验这条结算
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2026-08-24 — 中性 — -2.8% — 带内 ✓ 核验这条结算
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2026-08-23 — 中性 — -2.1% — 带内 ✓ 核验这条结算
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2026-08-22 — 中性 — — — VOID
2026-08-21 — 减持 — +3.7% — 输 核验这条结算
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2026-08-20 — 减持 — +4.2% — 输 核验这条结算
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2026-08-19 — 减持 — — — VOID
2026-08-16 — 减持 — -2.9% — 平 核验这条结算
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2026-08-15 — 减持 — — — VOID
2026-08-14 — 减持 — -10.8% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-08-12 — 减持 — — — VOID
2026-08-10 — 减持 — — — VOID
2026-08-09 — 减持 — +9.5% — 输 核验这条结算
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2026-08-08 — 减持 — +11.4% — 输 核验这条结算
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2026-08-06 — 减持 — -3.7% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-08-05 — 减持 — -6.5% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-08-04 — 减持 — -12.8% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-08-03 — 减持 — -15.6% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-08-02 — 减持 — -21.3% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-08-01 — 减持 — -24.8% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-07-31 — 减持 — -25.2% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-07-30 — 减持 — -17.0% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-07-29 — 减持 — -9.9% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-07-28 — 减持 — -3.4% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-07-27 — 减持 — -3.8% — 赢 核验这条结算
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2026-07-26 — 减持 — -2.7% — 平 核验这条结算
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2026-07-24 — 减持 — -0.1% — 平 核验这条结算
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2026-07-23 — 减持 — +3.6% — 输 核验这条结算
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2026-07-22 — 减持 — -0.7% — 平 核验这条结算
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按 settle_v1 结算,7天 vs BTC——失误同样在档 · 完整结算档案 →
coin_evidence_v1 · 判读规则
生成时刻快照,由交易所数据计算——事实,非观点 · 价格 = 4 家交易所中位数
失效条件:Price closes above 0.1082.。 保守读法:跌破 $0.08658 即本研报失效。 信心 中,不确定时观望。 空方核心:Leo, that +18.
平衡读法:下方裁定即基准情形。 方向 看空,时限 短线(数日)。
激进情形:Leo, that +18. 需守住的关键支撑在 $0.08658 附近。 时限:短线(数日)。
同一研报的三种风险读法 · 内容全部来自当日存档数据。
Mara, you're staring at the rearview mirror with those recent underweight losses from August 20th and 21st. The 30-day return is +18.4%, proving this asset has legs when the momentum turns, and the current dip to 0.10826 is just a consolidation before the next leg up.
Leo, that +18.4% monthly gain is already fading with a 7-day drop of 8.2%. You're ignoring the structural rot: the price is 27.8% below the 60-day high of 0.1499, and the MACD histogram is expanding negatively—this isn't consolidation, it's a distribution top.
The downside is actually underpriced here; with long accounts at 61.1%, a squeeze below the 0.08658 low could trigger a cascade far sharper than the current 7-day drop suggests.
The fastest way this blows up is if the 30-day +18.4% momentum resumes; if the price reclaims the SMA20, the bearish thesis collapses immediately.
Mara overreached by ignoring the flat short-term moving averages, but Leo is wrong to ignore the 60d high distance. The condition is simple: a break below 0.10646 confirms the bears, while holding 0.1082 keeps the chop alive.
· Sentiment exhaustion at Greed 73
· Breakdown below 0.08658 support
· Expansion of negative MACD histogram
推翻条件: Price closes above 0.1082.
Distribution? The taker buy/sell ratio is 0.86, meaning sellers aren't aggressive enough to force a breakdown. The bulls are absorbing this supply comfortably.
Absorbing supply with a Fear & Greed score of 73 is a recipe for disaster, Leo. That level of greed among long accounts is the fuel we need to push price down to the 0.08658 low.
▶ Live Debate · 完整交锋(4)
Distribution? The taker buy/sell ratio is 0.86, meaning sellers aren't aggressive enough to force a breakdown. The bulls are absorbing this supply comfortably.
Absorbing supply with a Fear & Greed score of 73 is a recipe for disaster, Leo. That level of greed among long accounts is the fuel we need to push price down to the 0.08658 low.
You're underestimating the resilience at these levels. We are only 2.7% below the SMA20 and SMA50; the trend is flat, not broken. A small spark here sends us higher.
Flat and broken are the same when you are 23.2% below the SMA200. That massive gap defines the real trend, and your 'small spark' will get smothered by that overhead supply.
I am siding with the bear case. The decisive exhibit is the extreme divergence between the Greed sentiment of 73 and the deeply negative price structure versus the SMA200. This setup is primed for a mean reversion lower. The ruling is invalidated if price closes above 0.1082.
观点是 AI;结算是事实。 · data powered by VeraMind
技术分析师(Kai Nakamura)
Price action is weak, holding just below the 0.1082 high with the MACD histogram expanding negatively. The structure is clearly bearish with the price 23.2% under the SMA200.
情绪分析师(Sofia Reyes)
The crowd is dangerously greedy at 73 despite the downtrend, with long accounts dominating at 61.1%. This positioning is vulnerable to a flush if the 0.08658 low is tested.
宏观新闻分析师(Ed Walsh)
Headlines are a mix of hype and skepticism, ranging from 'Impossible to Ignore' to questions of legitimacy. The noise suggests a lack of fundamental conviction to support the current price.
基本面分析师(Priya Anand)
Tokenomics data is sparse in the pack. Without burn metrics or utility updates, the current valuation relies on sentiment rather than on-chain value.
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60ca487ec924606ff7f46e55ff61c4bdfd180cea3211e2aef9be369d9c81eb3b4910750d35ef228ada15e5324d077ec5e03b15a767441cb6079eaf80baffe165已于 2026-09-06T00:20:00+00:00 承诺 · 当日共 76 篇判定 · 核验这条链
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